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Post by kevlar on Oct 25, 2021 15:29:51 GMT -6
Was just talking to our canola seed supplier for Pioneer seed, sounds like guys might be lucky to even get seed for next year, and was talking to a local farm supply store and he said some bearings he has ordered likely won’t be in until January, and I think he said it was a fairly common bearing, not some oddball size. Next year is shaping up to be a disaster. Thank god we had a good year this year, sitting idle for next year is at least an option, I really have sympathy for those who weren’t fortunate enough to have a crop this year.
This also brings to mind, is this a man made problem done on purpose? There is absolutely no reason for it to be like this, covid and all. Is China slowly cutting off our balls?
Perfect example of why we should never give up our right to clean our own seed.
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Post by snapper22 on Oct 25, 2021 16:17:26 GMT -6
Maybe we’ll be forced into a focus on sabbatical. Old Goudy is probably sitting up in heaven at the right hand of god looking down on us smiling.
Moisture situation doesn’t look good as it is and cereals look to pay as good as canola after inputs are considered. All things considered my seed carryover is good on all my crops, even a bit of canola. My poor hilly land didn’t produce much so nutrient carryover is there. I am seriously considering seeding whatever for the cows to pasture. Gives my perennial stands a rest and if it rains I can pull them off of there and get a feed crop. I don’t want to cut off my nose to spite my face but I’ve seen this scenario before and I know the hurt coming. Get cornered into high inputs in dry conditions and see the market collapse by fall. High prices cure high prices.
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Post by bob123 on Oct 25, 2021 20:08:26 GMT -6
P508mcl is already sold out. Isnt that grown under irrigation in lethbridge area? Not sure why there would be a shortage.
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iamwill
Full Member
Posts: 242 Likes: 159
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Post by iamwill on Oct 25, 2021 20:57:21 GMT -6
Not sure about all varieties but our seed canola yields were down about 1000lbs/acre from last year. So on our 560 acres that is a shortage of 112000 acres at 5lbs/acre. Starts to add up fast! If there are varieties you just can't live without you might want to get them booked. I have heard that a lot of seed lots are being rejected mainly due to low germination and that is going to cut seed supplies even more.
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Post by kevlar on Oct 25, 2021 21:09:41 GMT -6
P508mcl is already sold out. Isnt that grown under irrigation in lethbridge area? Not sure why there would be a shortage. The guy I talked to today said like the biggest problem was the heat came at a bad time? He was told the plants podded but never filled. Sounds plausible? Our canola had 30-35 degree heat for 30 days straight when it was flowering and still made seed.
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Post by kevlar on Oct 25, 2021 21:16:15 GMT -6
Maybe we’ll be forced into a focus on sabbatical. Old Goudy is probably sitting up in heaven at the right hand of god looking down on us smiling. Moisture situation doesn’t look good as it is and cereals look to pay as good as canola after inputs are considered. All things considered my seed carryover is good on all my crops, even a bit of canola. My poor hilly land didn’t produce much so nutrient carryover is there. I am seriously considering seeding whatever for the cows to pasture. Gives my perennial stands a rest and if it rains I can pull them off of there and get a feed crop. I don’t want to cut off my nose to spite my face but I’ve seen this scenario before and I know the hurt coming. Get cornered into high inputs in dry conditions and see the market collapse by fall. High prices cure high prices. Yes, anyone excited about 15 dollar canola off the combine next fall is in for a shock I think. 15 was good with last years costs, but is comparable to about 8 dollar canola with the costs now. Going to be a bumpy ride for awhile. Yes the high commodity prices were nice for a bit, but look what it's caused, not unrealistic to see expenses double yet again. I've mentioned hyperinflation a few times here before, I don't want to scare anyone with how that always ends. Look it up for yourself.
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Post by torriem on Oct 25, 2021 21:58:48 GMT -6
This also brings to mind, is this a man made problem done on purpose? There is absolutely no reason for it to be like this, covid and all. Is China slowly cutting off our balls? Not deliberately, no. China's economic growth is powered by western countries buying their goods. If that went away, China would go into an instant recession, and in fact they may be entering one with shipping and supply issues cutting back production. It's interesting as we tend to talk a lot about cheap chinese goods and where is good old American quality these days. Well the truth is chinese companies will make whatever quality of goods we demand. And western demand is absolutely calling for cheap quantity over quality. They learned poor quality from us and improved on it to sell us the garbage we demand. The news was talking about how stores may not get the Christmas goods that shoppers want. Kind of makes me a little bit sick that all these goods that people want are cheap plastic garbage that will end up in the land fill a few weeks after Christmas anyway. Yay for our consumer culture.
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Post by torriem on Oct 25, 2021 22:02:38 GMT -6
P508mcl is already sold out. Isnt that grown under irrigation in lethbridge area? Not sure why there would be a shortage. The guy I talked to today said like the biggest problem was the heat came at a bad time? He was told the plants podded but never filled. Sounds plausible? Our canola had 30-35 degree heat for 30 days straight when it was flowering and still made seed. Our Corteva liberty-tolerant seed field did very well this year, but our roundup varieties did rather poorly. So yes I confirm seed yields are down quite a ways this year, despite irrigation. Quite a spread too. We're talking a couple of thousand pounds/acre difference between the high and low yields for these individual varieties. This is a year when we'd almost have done as well on commercial canola as we did on seed.
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Post by slipclutch on Oct 26, 2021 3:46:25 GMT -6
torriem Did you buy you’re tiers yet for the pivots.
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Post by torriem on Oct 26, 2021 17:53:07 GMT -6
Yes I bought a bunch of tires. My local tire shop had two brands available, and both looked decent to me. So I cleaned them out of one brand, and bought a bunch of the brand. 14 tires in total, plus the 4 I already have, so I figure 18 should do me. Price wasn't too bad either, about what I paid over the summer. The brand he was selling me before--marked specifically as irrigation tires--is sold out, but I like the look of these other tires better anyway. They aren't sold as irrigation tires, so I'm wondering if the bead is a bit stronger and they'll last better. At present there are still over 100 tires in the system. We'll see how long that lasts.
I've also started keeping track of tire changes so I can determine if I'm replacing the same tires over and over again. In other words are the new tires just junk? I have a lot of 30 year old tires out there still going strong. Of the last two tires I changed this fall, one was dated 1994, and the other had no date but I could tell it was one I had done in the last six years or so.
I have a couple of pivots that are using re-tread truck tires. I used to curse them because they are really heavy, until I realized that I've only changed two of them in the last 15 years. My neighbor has changed just a couple in 30 years. I can't just switch to them, though, as they require a different sim size. But the heavy truck bead must just be stronger and the mud doesn't get in and wreck the tubes as easy.
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Post by kevlar on Oct 26, 2021 20:14:25 GMT -6
The guy I talked to today said like the biggest problem was the heat came at a bad time? He was told the plants podded but never filled. Sounds plausible? Our canola had 30-35 degree heat for 30 days straight when it was flowering and still made seed. Our Corteva liberty-tolerant seed field did very well this year, but our roundup varieties did rather poorly. So yes I confirm seed yields are down quite a ways this year, despite irrigation. Quite a spread too. We're talking a couple of thousand pounds/acre difference between the high and low yields for these individual varieties. This is a year when we'd almost have done as well on commercial canola as we did on seed. Sorry, I think I called the brand we grow Pioneer earlier, it's now Corteva. Maybe I've had seed from you! Funny how it can be so different from one area to another, ours was all roundup ready and did quite well for the year. I almost wonder if on a dry year like this if the irrigation caused the lower yield? I know most of our low spots yielded less than the hills, anywhere that it was dryer I think the crop kept rooting down and the low spots didn't then ran out of moisture later on when the plant was too mature to grow more roots. Just my theory. I know some people here that watered their gardens during the heat and had a terrible garden, I watered mine every 3-4 night when it was cool and had by far the best garden I've ever had, I think it was too much shock for the plants getting hit with cold water.
Maybe it's none of my business, but how do they (seed company) work out what you get paid? Still by the bushel or a flat rate no matter the yield? A lot of extra work on your part to grow seed no doubt.
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Post by torriem on Oct 26, 2021 20:44:59 GMT -6
Seed production yields are always very different than what you would typically get growing it commercially. Often it's because of pollination. If the bees do well, the yields are better. This year pollination was a bit poor. A combination of heat and irrigation. Leafcutters prefer a pretty tight window of 25-27 C. Outside that they don't do much. They don't like to be irrigated either. They can actually drown. We think that irrigation might also be thinning the nectar also. Honeybees do better in the heat, so usually we have both in a field. Heat did cause a lot of flowers to abort this year too. Since the female flowers have no stamens, if it's hot and a bee hasn't visited the flower to pollinate it, it will just drop on the ground.
Also we might spray the fields more times that you would commercially which could cause less yield on our end. Typically on roundup-ready seed we spray a fairly high rate of glyphosate twice. I think 360g/ac each time. When growing BASF liberty varieties, the females are only half-tolerant, spraying kills about half of them (which is what we want actually so the final seed is 100% tolerant). And then after all that, we only harvest 75% of our crop. The rest (the males) is destroyed by a mower.
All companies pay you based on your yield compared to the average. So higher yields does mean more payout. Corteva contracts are a bit different in that they assume all the risk after a certain date, provided you're doing everything they want. Their base contract price is lower than BASF, though, because of that. They guarantee a payout of 80% of the average. The average for our contracts is set at $1200/ac this year (set last winter). So on one field we'll get a bit more than that, the other two will be a bit less. On a year like this, commercial canola isn't far off of that, and durum is way more.
The good and bad news is that every seed company is raising their contracts next year. They kind of have to when commercial canola can net almost the same money as seed this year. And seed canola production is a lot of hassle. So we expect a jump in the new contracts, which is good, but it's also very bad because the commercial seed is going to jump too.
I haven't seen other companies take on the risk, though, which is unfortunate. Several times we've had a Bayer (now BASF) field that passed inspection, we did everything they asked, but the agronomist was a bit late in getting roguing crews in to pick the off-type canola. So we do all that work, then after harvest they take their samples and say, sorry, that failed the genetic test. Sell it commercially, but you have to use our trucks to make sure you're really selling it to an elevator and not dropping seed bags off a truck somewhere. That really sucks because your revenue is 50% of a commercial canola field.
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Post by torriem on Oct 26, 2021 20:57:03 GMT -6
I am not sure I did a good job explaining the pay structure, but there is a spread is what I meant. For Corteva the floor is 80% and the ceiling is 120 if I'm not mistaken, so you get paid more for yield up to a certain point. Most companies have a ceiling, but it's higher than Corteva's.
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BJT
Full Member
Posts: 109 Likes: 40
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Post by BJT on Oct 26, 2021 22:09:55 GMT -6
So your saying we should order 2023 seed now also?
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Post by torriem on Oct 26, 2021 23:21:02 GMT -6
Probably!
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