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Post by Beerwiser on Oct 14, 2021 15:40:29 GMT -6
Just got off the phone with the manager at the coop, 13 bucks a liter for transob. None in stock either. Rumors of another price increase too. Anything with MCPA, 24,D is going to be tough to get next year. Maybe crop prices will follow 🙄.
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Post by shmiffy on Oct 14, 2021 17:18:19 GMT -6
Mcpa and 2 4D are made in Saskatoon. More was used this fall than normal. Should have all winter and spring to get caught up
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Post by Beerwiser on Oct 14, 2021 18:19:57 GMT -6
From what he was telling me it is the additives that come from elsewhere that is the problem.
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Post by serffarmer on Oct 14, 2021 18:53:13 GMT -6
Trying to decide what to do about fertilizer. Wow is the price ridiculous. Normally I’d be waiting it out at these prices but with the supply chain in the disastrous state it’s in I really have no clue what to think. We are set up for all dry fertilizer and store it on farm. Too dry here in my opinion to put down anhydrous right now but it is cheaper. Is everybody buying or waiting?
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Post by slipclutch on Oct 14, 2021 19:16:15 GMT -6
Bought in August and I thought I got hosed!!
Maybe not now.
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Post by serffarmer on Oct 14, 2021 19:21:24 GMT -6
Yeah sure wish we would have done that. Quite short on bin space so usually fill up the fertilizer bins with grain that’s gonna out first thing then fill with fertilizer after that. Lack of bin space biting us in the ass double time this year.
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Post by carlos on Oct 14, 2021 21:19:57 GMT -6
I'd be happy to rent out some of my bin space!
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Post by kevlar on Oct 14, 2021 22:07:46 GMT -6
Talked to our main supplier today, urea around the $1100 mark, phos about 1200 if I remember correctly, things went kind of blurry and my ears had a ringing in them when he was talking to me. They had one tote of Transorb on hand so bought it just to be on the safe side. He didn't know what to recommend going forward. Sounds like it might be tough to even get some products come spring. Maybe that would be the best thing that happened?
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Post by kevlar on Oct 14, 2021 22:25:13 GMT -6
Also heard that the local CO-OP is having a hard time getting NH3, and a local trucking guy said granular has been pretty slow, was hoping this rain my get a few more guys putting stuff down. He said wherever it was that he picks up the fertilizer, that they had been shut down for maintenance for awhile and just got going, but where they load the trucks hadn't been fixed at all and many of the loading spouts where already out of order, so he expects another "break down" not to far away.
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daryl672
Full Member
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Posts: 112
Likes: 120
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Post by daryl672 on Oct 15, 2021 0:07:57 GMT -6
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Post by garyfunk on Oct 15, 2021 7:32:08 GMT -6
Wow, the manure pile is getting more valuable every day.
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Post by kenmb on Oct 15, 2021 8:24:23 GMT -6
There is a manufacturer in Regina also, think it is Bayer. Drove by it many times. So like you guys note, it is more of an issue of a few ingredients.
I would say there are a lot of games being played. Looking particularly at natural gas and the so called shortage going into Europe. I don't know of any oil or gas facility locally that got impacted by covid. Funny how not a single resource operation got shut down due to covid cases. So I find it suspect that natural gas is suddenly in short supply. Seems more like a manufactured crisis. And if that is the case, then a guy has no rational way to make a plan on what next spring will look like.
Crops can still go in the ground without fertilizer. But there will always be some available so that is really not a big concern. Glyphosate is a different matter. In crop herbicides might even find a guy can get by ok depending on if manufacturers compensate. There are lots and lots of chemicals out there these days so even if a few ingredients are not available, if ingredients to make a different formula are around then one would hope a manufacturer ramps up that production. Buctril M and 24d for example have been around for a long time, if the main ingredients are easily accessible and locally made a guy can still cover a lot of ground with them.
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Post by kenmb on Oct 15, 2021 8:37:10 GMT -6
To my point, that article Daryl linked (I don't subscribe to WSJ so can't read it all), but I didn't know a guy could switch a gas turbine over to diesel/fuel oil so easily. I figured they were more complex. Yes, turbines in an airplane basically use kerosene. But something designed to inject a gas vs liquid I don't think is done over the course of a few days.
Kind of like switching your bbq from propane to diesel.
And no, I have not seen a power plant in western Canada that burns natural gas to run a boiler. Coal yes, gas no. All natural gas power plants spin a turbine to turn a generator. Potash mines will run NG boilers but have no ability to switch to liquid.
Where do the liquid tanks come from when switching From NG to diesel? Do power plants have massive storage tanks and liquid pipelines run into them "just in case" gas runs out.
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Post by billybigrigs on Oct 15, 2021 15:48:37 GMT -6
Potash mines used to have the ability to switch. PCS mines used to have multi-fuel boilers and had massive storage tanks for propane and diesel, but those got removed once natural gas was a more stable supply.
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Post by kenmb on Oct 15, 2021 18:05:08 GMT -6
I could see that being the case when the mills were built. Then they could have the opportunity to switch to whatever fuel source was most economical. When running a boiler then you can switch fuel fairly easily if all plumbed for it. Keep in mind boilers are used at potash mines because heat/steam is used throughout the process. For strictly power generation it is an inefficient step to run a boiler to create steam to drive a turbine when you can just drive the turbine directly with NG. Could be some old power plants still do this, but with all this movement to higher efficiency and government laws on emissions, CO2, and such I would think those plants using boilers have long gone. Coal powered plants still use boilers, and so perhaps there are some multifuel plants out there yet that did burn coal, switched to NG and now switch to other fuel.
In that case we would have to get back to asking what caused the natural gas supply to drop off. Perhaps the world is being taught that governments following a single minded directive based on false science is looking like a bad thing. Banning CO2 emissions to feel good without ensuring a stable energy sector is only going to be shown as bad news to the tree huggers if you make their lives uncomfortable. We have always said that people need a good slap in the face with reality. Perhaps a fake natural gas crisis will do that. But I don't know if anyone learnt lessons in Texas from that power grid failure they had during cold spring snap. That was basically government regulations and companies blindly following then that created that mess.
If that is the case then I don't mind paying a little extra now if it gets us to a future where sanity and common sense rules again.
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