|
|
Post by kevlar on Oct 3, 2021 22:05:00 GMT -6
What are your thoughts going into next year? What does one do? These grain prices are stupid, as nice as it is, all it's doing is taking everything else along with it. We were fortunate to have good crops, but in all honesty, it's going to take most of what we made this year just to play the game again next year. I really do feel bad for those of you that had little or no crops. Still have half of our oats unsold, and seen Friday locally can get $7.31 for November delivery. That's insane, but at the same time, that bushel won't really buy any more than the$3.50 bushel did a couple years ago. Not sure how they come up with the inflation rate, they are way off on that. Have even thought momentarily about not even putting a crop in next year, anything less than a bumper crop will be a loss, unless prices stay high, or keep going higher, but where does it end? Are we approaching a market collapse? Do all these grain companies have enough equity to cover everything if things go sour? I can't remember exactly how it all works for them to stay bonded with the Grain Commission, but if I remember correctly, they have to have so much money on hand to cover a percentage of outstanding grain cheques at any given time.
I just realized, I asked a lot of questions!! lol
What do you all expect next year? This isn't a political thread, but no doubt that will come into play as it's a crazy world right now causing all this.
|
|
|
|
Post by jcalder on Oct 3, 2021 22:19:07 GMT -6
Hopefully finish corn in a few days and start fertilizing for next year.
Business as usual.
|
|
|
|
Post by slipclutch on Oct 4, 2021 5:42:10 GMT -6
Same here. Business as Usual. Hows the corn jcalder?
|
|
|
|
Post by Oatking on Oct 4, 2021 6:56:24 GMT -6
Sticking with the same rotation, oats ,canola and beans. Maybe drop the fertilizer rate a bit in oats. Only working fields where the canola is going and the rest is getting 2 good blasts with the super 7 elmers. Soil tests show high N residue so will consider that into the canola fertilizer blend. Hoping General Mills Oat program thru Paterson will be in the 5. to 5.5 range. Insane to hear over 8 bucks for oats. Land has hit 7000 an acre here a week ago on river lot land so guys are optimistic regardless of dry conditions. I am looking forward to spring and have seen this same situation play out in 2008. I am not changing my bullish approach to forward contracting. Got a bit burned on beans this year and some oats but looking backing on 25 years that has only happened twice to me. If other countries get a big crop we will be right back to last years conditions.
|
|
|
|
Post by kenmb on Oct 4, 2021 9:19:34 GMT -6
Pretty much sticking with what i have been doing. And since that plan is focused a lot on building in caution by not knowing how any given year will play out, then that plan still works.
I have a rotation that I have been tweaking and this coming year should see it work ok. My nitrogen fertilizer use is low compared to everyone else. I do essentially a 50/50 blend of nitrogen to phos while looking primarily at the phos and removal rates to get a 5 to 10lb/ac build. Nitrogen is based on what I consider typical yields, I don't aim for top yields because I am not pursuing an intensive program. With that said, if I change anything I may go to removal rates on phos rather than a build rate and might cut nitrogen a wee bit. Maybe not. That decision is usually made when I am setting the air cart.
Prices on inputs and commodities are a big unknown. Seed is in the bin so no issue there. Natural gas is setting prices right now but can change so no betting there. Phos is basically determined by "markets" (ie trade, tarrifs, our canpotex potash cartel, etc) so there again hard to bet where it will go. If I was in a system of putting down fall fertilizer then that is what I would do.
Basically, if you have a crystal ball then use it. My thinking is the more erratic things are like right now, then the less accurate you can guess what will be reality come fall next year.
|
|
|
|
Post by torriem on Oct 4, 2021 18:04:13 GMT -6
No changes to my rotation planned. However I am going to cut back N levels on cereals, especially hard red spring wheat. It's not because of the high prices per se, but the high prices are a good impetus to change what I've been doing. For many years we've been fertilizing for 100-120 bu/ac wheat, and in my soils and temperatures, we rarely break 90. In fact, 80 is considered an excellent yield in HRS in this area. So I think I'll fertilize for 80 and see what happens. I will also do a few experiments with seeding rates. Sometimes I feel the best bang for my buck is from lower seeding rates and lower fertilizer rates. I'll be cutting N by 25-35 #/ac.
For the other crops, I will be leaving fertilizer rates unchanged. However I'm unlikely to use MESZ, or 40 Rock for phos. I think it will just be straight 11-52.
What's driving the insane prices for durum and red lentils? Is it simply because of low quality, low production from the drought?
I'm fairly concerned about the shipping and shortages problem getting worse next year. From what I can see, international shipping by sea is on the verge of collapse, largely due to countries refusing to allow crews any sort of shore leave, even though they've been at sea for months and months and have vaccines and negative tests for covid. Sailors are quitting in large numbers as they've been stuck at sea for over a year, to say nothing of problems at the ports.
I'll be making a list of stuff I need next month and starting to acquire it. I'm most concerned about pivot parts, especially tires. As of a couple of months ago, irrigation tires were nearly impossible to source. Tire shop started using tractor tires, which are more expensive, but in the end might work out better as I suspect they will last longer. Except the price of steel is so high, I might be tempted to try designing my own steel wheels... So far every steel wheel design I've tried leaves a lot to be desired.
|
|
|
|
Post by jcalder on Oct 6, 2021 6:06:16 GMT -6
Same here. Business as Usual. Hows the corn jcalder? Quite happy with it, mid 100's typically seems to be where it's gonna average out. Nothing wrong with that! |
|
|
|
Post by Oatking on Oct 9, 2021 20:06:59 GMT -6
Went to Winkler on friday and noticed some canola fields finishing flowering and podding after the first harvest in early august. Is it likely you could combine the canola in the spring because it is likely a pod shatter gene and what does basf have to say about second crop of canola. Hell, if the canola only yields ten bushels an acre thats 220 bucks an acre for almost free.
No frost in the forecast so is this possible? crazy idea but crazy enough to work.
|
|
hoodpins
Junior Member
Posts: 52
Likes: 31
|
Post by hoodpins on Oct 9, 2021 20:37:21 GMT -6
Went to Winkler on friday and noticed some canola fields finishing flowering and podding after the first harvest in early august. Is it likely you could combine the canola in the spring because it is likely a pod shatter gene and what does basf have to say about second crop of canola. Hell, if the canola only yields ten bushels an acre thats 220 bucks an acre for almost free. No frost in the forecast so is this possible? crazy idea but crazy enough to work. I have been thinking the same for a while in the Saskatoon area. If the Frost holds out until after October 15th or so, some guys will get a second cut. |
|
|
|
Post by slipclutch on Oct 9, 2021 22:09:51 GMT -6
Yeah it think so too 👍 good luck to all!! We all need a brake
|
|
|
|
Post by carlos on Oct 10, 2021 8:11:24 GMT -6
All it is doing is using up expensive fertilizer that wasnt used up in the summer. Froze last night and the night before. -5 for coming week for lows here east of stoon. Most guys here sprayed after getting their whopping 10 bushels!
|
|
|
|
Post by kevlar on Oct 10, 2021 8:41:40 GMT -6
I have my doubts it would amount to anything. We had canola drown out last year around the first of July, it came back and was a beautiful looking crop. I can't remember the exact timeline, but it was even starting to turn color by this time of year. It still froze and amounted to nothing. Problem with this time of year everything takes three times as long to mature. It looks like it only needs a week, but it will take closer to 3 weeks.
|
|
|
|
Post by jcalder on Oct 10, 2021 10:12:38 GMT -6
Rainy season has hit here. About 2" in the last couple days and saying another 2" or more on wednesday. A few days to dry up and nh3 is gonna work just perfect. Get some moisture in the ground for 2022, and the rain is perfect an inch came over about 8 hours. Shouldn't be much for ponding.
|
|
|
|
Post by slipclutch on Oct 10, 2021 14:37:59 GMT -6
Yeah same here.
|
|
|
|
Post by slipclutch on Oct 11, 2021 11:32:53 GMT -6
How are you guys fertilizing this year. Are you putting down your typical blend or are you adjusting because of fertilizer credits leftover?
|
|
