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Post by Oatking on Oct 27, 2021 7:57:36 GMT -6
The news was talking about how stores may not get the Christmas goods that shoppers want. Kind of makes me a little bit sick that all these goods that people want are cheap plastic garbage that will end up in the land fill a few weeks after Christmas anyway. Yay for our consumer culture.
I echo you sentiments! My employee always gives his kids a nice selection of meat at christmas or birthdays. He buys a steer and has it cut from a local shop. He is an avid hunter so he throws in moose , deer, and his favorite is carabou. It is always enjoyed and its not made in china! That idea has rubbed off on me too.
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Post by kevlar on Oct 27, 2021 20:27:51 GMT -6
Ordered 43 bags of canola yesterday, was informed today can only get 29. That was from Corteva rep, we got roundup ready, he said nothing else available at all, not Liberty, not swath only canola. Nothing else at all. Have a feeling guys will be trying to seed some bin run stuff next year.
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Post by Oatking on Oct 28, 2021 6:22:13 GMT -6
Interesting, new crop oats up to 7.25 a bushel. Might be a sea of oats this year because of its N requirement! nh3 will probably cost a 1.20 a lb. yikes !In regards to seed shortage I think it will depend on how well the retailer locked in sales this summer. I had no problem getting Invigor seed. Also will depend on variety. Probably l233 will be first to sell out. In the red river valley next to no round up ready canola gets planted so that should help producers out west.
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Post by kevlar on Oct 28, 2021 7:36:46 GMT -6
Interesting, new crop oats up to 7.25 a bushel. Might be a sea of oats this year because of its N requirement! nh3 will probably cost a 1.20 a lb. yikes !In regards to seed shortage I think it will depend on how well the retailer locked in sales this summer. I had no problem getting Invigor seed. Also will depend on variety. Probably l233 will be first to sell out. In the red river valley next to no round up ready canola gets planted so that should help producers out west. Have you actually got the seed though? I don't know of any retailers stocking up on seed yet, taking orders though. The guy we buy from was having a rough day yesterday, he was calling around to tell people what was happening, some of them had booked all their seed only to find out they wouldn't be getting all of it. Richardson had told me the same last week that this was going to happen. This is with all varieties.
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Post by serffarmer on Oct 28, 2021 7:57:28 GMT -6
Same thing is happening here. Got told yesterday we will be getting zero bags of the pioneer rr canola that we had planned on seeding. Complete joke.
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Post by kevlar on Oct 28, 2021 8:50:39 GMT -6
Maybe this is a blessing in disguise? As I get older I find that when something doesn't work out the way you plan, it often ends up being for the better. The way the price and availability of parts and everything else is going, it might be safer to do nothing, kind of like safety moto "nobody moves, nobody gets hurt"! lol Safe to say most things have doubled in cost. Farm store in town sold a plumbing T for a water bowl to someone the other day for their usual price of $7.00 but didn't have it in stock so had to order one, the one they got had gone up to $14.00 so he had to eat the $7 loss because he quoted him the $7 price. Most stuff will be following this trend, that's if you can get it.
Best advice is to not panic into doing something you normally don't do. I remember a few years ago we were getting the same spiel about how many people wouldn't be able to get fertilizer (can't remember the reason then, likely just a marketing ploy) lots of people started putting down $1000 NH3 that fall, when spring came it had dropped to 600 (or somewhere like that). People were pissed.
Certainly uncharted territory we're in. Dad has asked me a few times what we think we should be doing, he's 74 years old and has farmed as long as he could hold a steering wheel. Not sure why he thinks I would have the answer!!
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Post by Albertabuck on Oct 28, 2021 9:10:50 GMT -6
Since my buddy that sold for Brett Young passed away I'm kind of out of the loop on the seed thing anymore, but I would suspect that a large part of the issue of lack of particular seed availability will be directly attributable to the drought. It wasn't just regular production that was effected, it was across the board in all crops. There is talk of limited cereal seed being available too, for the same reason. Question remaining is what kind of quality is the seed that was produced this year, that could make things even worse.
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Post by hardrockacres on Oct 28, 2021 11:01:25 GMT -6
locally any BY canola is unavailable, new or old varieties, and any liberty is scarce from any manufacturer. RR varieties are available but not all the "top" varieties are as they are sold out already. Oats/peas/flax & canary are real short for supply, Flax is at 55/bu for seed. Actually had one of the local seed growers/sellers call and see if they could get samples of my canary to check the germ as they need product.
As of now barley and wheat are still readily available but some varieties are limited supply.
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Post by Oatking on Oct 28, 2021 13:27:22 GMT -6
Have you actually got the seed though? I don't know of any retailers stocking up on seed yet, taking orders though. The guy we buy from was having a rough day yesterday, he was calling around to tell people what was happening, some of them had booked all their seed only to find out they wouldn't be getting all of it. Richardson had told me the same last week that this was going to happen. This is with all varieties.
Yes , seed is from last year , great quality. I think the loyal customers will be in better shape than some guys who buy from who ever is cheapest. If I didnt have it I would have cleaned my own oats. It will be an area specific problem instead of across the slate.
Canola production costs are scary now even with decent new crop prices. If a guy only grows 30 bushels an acre next year it will be a wreck of a crop I think. And cutting back on inputs is never that good of an idea.
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Post by hardrockacres on Oct 28, 2021 14:37:09 GMT -6
Haven't seen the seed I was only prebooking due to the shortages I was hearing about...but it is what they have been allotted/told by the sales reps. BY told them direct that they have nothing to offer so do not accept orders. they have also been calling ppl who booked BY back in the summer early fall to inform them that it will not be available. This is coming form all of the input suppliers in the area. Also heard that a seed grower a bit north of me is selling flax at 80/bu.
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Post by torriem on Oct 28, 2021 17:05:16 GMT -6
Oh wow. My neighbor grew a ton of flax this year. He could make a killing just cleaning it for seed and offering it as common seed at say $50/bu.
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Post by serffarmer on Oct 28, 2021 19:12:07 GMT -6
I wanted to go pay for my seed and take it straight home to the shed. Both places I’m getting from now tell me they can’t let farmers take it until the new year and they aren’t expecting any seed to show up until January or February anyway. The whole scenario not just canola seed but fertilizer and everything else does not give me a warm fuzzy feeling to say the least.
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Post by kevlar on Oct 28, 2021 19:23:59 GMT -6
So some of you guys can actually pick up your canola seed this time of year on a regular year? Nobody around here that I know of even gets a shipment in to distribute to farmers until early March. Maybe some do but have never heard about it. If you got seed now, wouldn't the treatment be getting a little weaker by spring? I know we have kept a bag sometimes from one year to the next and could always pick out exactly where we sowed it. Good news, was able to pick up enough seed to do our planned acres. Had to get some Brett Young 6099 I believe it was. They (Richardson) had no Dekalb roundup ready left, a few different true flex ones, and I don't think any Invigour.
Also can't price any fertilizer for next spring until at least December, maybe January. We don't have any storage for it so can't even pre buy some now.
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Post by serffarmer on Oct 28, 2021 20:00:56 GMT -6
Usually don’t even worry about until just before seeding to be honest. Just rattled with the way things are playing out and if it’s in the yard I can sleep a bit better.
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Post by kevlar on Oct 28, 2021 20:08:16 GMT -6
No, you wouldn't sleep any better, you'd be worried all winter about someone stealing it! lol
We've never bought canola or fertilizer this time of year before either, but this year is looking to be a lot different than what any of us here have ever experienced.
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