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Post by Oatking on Feb 8, 2024 22:12:28 GMT -6
Got my crop insurance claim worked last month. Adjuster says they have more claims to work this year then they did derecho 2020 year. Big crop my ass. This seems all to familiar again ! It’s scary to think what our true f supply and demand is in the world for grains ! The common person would never question these types of supply demand reports ! It’s almost like the governments are cutting prices to bring down inflation . I guess it is working !
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Post by Oatking on Feb 15, 2024 12:27:05 GMT -6
What are you guys expecting for a canola floor price ? Yikes bunge is at 12.70 so that means some of the elevators could have 11 in the front of the price . I see in the news a whole bunch of bio diesel plants are planed ! The future does look bright but I was wondering the liberal government doesn’t seem to like carbon based fuels . What would a weather rally put canola at mid summer . It seems we are in for a long wait !
Do you think corn acres will be down this year in Manitoba ? It’s depressing seeing cargill grain prices in Morris ! Probably the reason that elevator see s next to no business . Funny thing is , they love to sell their huddle up meetings !!!! lol
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Post by kevlar on Feb 15, 2024 13:03:29 GMT -6
I honestly don’t expect things to improve until Trudeau is given the boot. He’s destroyed Canada’s relationship with every country we deal with. Same thing with Biden. North America had below average everything, prices should be going up, not in free fall. Ukraine is dumping grain into Europe cheep and the farmers in Europe are trying to stop it. Supply and demand means nothing when politics dictates what will happen.
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Post by kenmb on Feb 16, 2024 19:17:52 GMT -6
Production numbers are telling a tale that isn't matching prices right now. Couple years ago sold some brown flax for $39/bu,and this year production is much lower. Of course if we had actual supply and demand to run the markets then I might use the crystal ball differently. For now this is simply an article to keep in mind as next few months play out. Maybe we will see a rise in price, but more likely we will be told there is no demand. Plenty of demand to drive flax to +$40/bu not long ago though. www.producer.com/news/flax-price-stable-as-production-woes-continue/
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Post by Oatking on Mar 15, 2024 7:09:20 GMT -6
I wonder if this mini canola rally is shaking some bins loose? I tried calling bunge yesterday and the phone was quite busy for some time br]I sold a bit of new crop for 14.20 but had to leave a message on voice mail . I think that was the first time I sold grain via a voice mail! Lots of times with text ! What is you guys most popular way to sell grain ? Grain targets , over the phone , text or voice mail! Did I leave any out ! Ha ha !
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Post by kevlar on Mar 15, 2024 13:15:10 GMT -6
I managed to sell a couple loads pretty much at the bottom, has been going up ever since. You’re all welcome 😒
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Post by SWMan on Mar 15, 2024 23:04:22 GMT -6
I managed to sell a couple loads pretty much at the bottom, has been going up ever since. You’re all welcome 😒 Me too, figured it wouldn't turn around until I sold some and sure enough it did. The market knows when we all puked some up....
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Post by garyfunk on Mar 20, 2024 12:39:20 GMT -6
I managed to sell a couple loads pretty much at the bottom, has been going up ever since. You’re all welcome 😒 Thanks bud!
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Post by slipclutch on Mar 20, 2024 17:04:28 GMT -6
Hah! Yeah. Beans up .24cents today.
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Post by cptusa on Mar 20, 2024 20:01:19 GMT -6
Hah! Yeah. Beans up .24cents today. Down .75 tomorrow.
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Post by slipclutch on Mar 20, 2024 20:52:53 GMT -6
Hah! Yeah. Beans up .24cents today. Down .75 tomorrow. Hah! Looks tonight big boy. It’s up! 😉
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Post by slipclutch on Mar 20, 2024 21:22:25 GMT -6
Hah! Looks tonight big boy. It’s up! 😉 🍻
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Post by kenmb on Mar 21, 2024 8:40:30 GMT -6
Next Thursday the USDA presents its guesses for how many acres will be seeded and then the market applies the factor of maximum yield expected and comes up with how much grain is guaranteed to be produced this crop year in the US. USDA will also revise its stocks on hand to adjust their past guesses from a couple years ago to match up with whatever they want the market to be going forward.
Some say these reports don't influence the "markets" at all because all this is already priced in well ahead of time because the futures are looking forward into the future so a report coming out in a week is irrelevant. I tend not to fall in that camp.
Those revisions reaching back into the past are always interesting. One might question how that all works, or why it is done as one would expect stock data to be current up to a couple weeks ago so revision of old data seems pointless but it's a Wierd and whacky world so we just go with it.
Another thing that happens right around the end of March is "funds" seem to hold to the idea of rebalancing their holdings now and then and this is usually based on a quarter of the year. Apparently if a "fund" thinks a certain position is good to buy into, it is also important to toss all that rationale aside every 3 months and sell/buy in an opposite direction of their previous decisions in order to rebalance. So alot of those record shorts could be unloaded just because policy is to rebalance things. Who knows. I find it odd but we do know mutual funds and many of our own RRSP managers do exactly this. We will have to see if the "funds" so such a thing also.
Next 14 days I would expect to see some activity. Inflation keeps going up and no word of the economy doing bad so you would think the tendency is towards higher prices but I guess it depends on what the USDA says and whether the forward looking markets actually look forward or not.
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Post by shmiffy on Mar 21, 2024 11:45:21 GMT -6
Is there still a big difference between USDA’s number and Brazil’s. I would think Brazils would be a lot closer.
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Post by cptusa on Mar 21, 2024 20:04:14 GMT -6
I guarantee CONAB is closer then USDA. Carry out on beans is razor thin so the South America crop has to cover shortage on paper.
Like Ken said, big USA crop coming for 24, probably record planting acres with ridiculously high yield.
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