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Post by wheatking76 on Oct 25, 2023 20:03:28 GMT -6
no worry's i just sold some so the price should start going up shortly
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iamwill
Full Member
Posts: 245 Likes: 159
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Post by iamwill on Oct 25, 2023 20:35:19 GMT -6
I can't figure out the grain markets at the best of times but I can't figure out why I keep getting texts and calls from the buyers wanting my wheat. This has been going on all summer yet wheat keeps dropping. They obviously know something I don't, maybe prices are going to spike up or they are all short of tonnes to fill their sales commitments. I really don't have a clue.
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Post by OptimallyDismal on Oct 25, 2023 20:37:04 GMT -6
It dropped like a rock last week when we sold some, was thinking it would be $17-18 but under $15?!?! Also almost no one is taking it unless you have a contract
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Post by kevlar on Oct 25, 2023 20:49:54 GMT -6
I’m about to tell them to go screw themselves and lock the bins up, have a few more loads booked to go out in the next week or so, and if they get our bins up we’ll have enough room to get the piles off the ground. #1 wheat is getting close to feed wheat prices and none of the Tom screwery or dockage with feed. Someone somewhere is making a butt load off these prices.
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Post by Oatking on Nov 27, 2023 16:53:44 GMT -6
Hey guys , I know it’s early for selling new crop oats , but I wondered what price has been put out there ? Last year i sold 90 bushels an acre in October for 6 bucks. I produced around 90 due to the drought. This year I am hoping for at least 5.65! Looks like I will find out this week about an official 2024 new crop price! I think I will sell heavy again !
I think if wheat is at or just below 9 bucks now for sept 2024 , Close to 6 dollar oats makes sense again !
Where do you guys think we are in this prairie drought ? If things dry up again ? Prices might go insane again .
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Post by wheatking76 on Dec 4, 2023 23:10:14 GMT -6
still not to sure on what to think on prices, see canola took quite a dump the last couple days donno wither its year end scare to buy more or what,
seem like most reports ive read the world supply is saturated not bumper crop yields but theres enough to go around for now unless its a dry spring/summer thing might heat up again
still hearing higher and higher rents and land prices, getting to the point of i cant seem to figure the math but maybe its just me
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Post by kevlar on Dec 5, 2023 0:29:38 GMT -6
still not to sure on what to think on prices, see canola took quite a dump the last couple days donno wither its year end scare to buy more or what, seem like most reports ive read the world supply is saturated not bumper crop yields but theres enough to go around for now unless its a dry spring/summer thing might heat up again still hearing higher and higher rents and land prices, getting to the point of i cant seem to figure the math but maybe its just me When you figure it out please let me know! I’ve never seen it so volatile, canola goes up 20 to down 20 within a day. Personally I think we’re starting to see the effects of North America’s governments and inflation making its way into the agriculture sector. We just can’t compete with the third world countries. Not to mention how much our leaders have alienated us from some of our biggest customers, especially Trudeau. I read an article the other day about canola and the volatility, I wish I had put a link to it here. Basically what I got from it was the people trading paper canola, you know the stuff that doesn’t even exist, was running the price up, but then people with actual canola would sell into the market and the price would take a complete 180 and drop more than it gained. The people trading with our livelihood at stake want to make the money but don’t want to deal with the actual product. The article explained it better than that, but it was crazy enough that it made sense.
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Post by shmiffy on Dec 5, 2023 11:44:13 GMT -6
As soon as there is a futures market and prices can be shorted. All true price discovery is gone. Major price manipulation There is a couple countries than banned short selling and low and behold prices of those highly manipulated commodities went higher to a more realistic price level
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Post by garyfunk on Dec 5, 2023 12:55:05 GMT -6
It's a bloody mess today again for canola. It better change direction soon.
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Post by Oatking on Dec 5, 2023 15:50:01 GMT -6
It might be messy until post seeding! If drought persists like it has in some areas and those areas grow we will see pretty pleasant canola prices. It’s one of those events where you wish for others to have a hardship and you catch a break ! Chinas hog industry is having trouble so that does not help us! Patience is needed now!
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Post by kevlar on Dec 5, 2023 17:35:45 GMT -6
The price has dropped since all the canola companies have finished their push on selling their seed. We haven’t booked any yet and if this keeps up it won’t bother me to say screw it. Have already switched a couple quarters to try some peas next year to spread out the canola years a little bit more. I know everyone is always hot and bothered with growing canola, but honestly if it wasn’t for the round up trait I wouldn’t even grow it. Considering the return on investment to grow it and the constant worry about everything associated with it it’s got the worst return.
Here’s a real slap to the nuts, if a guy didn’t have to even start their combine to harvest canola this year because it was a write off, they are going to make more off crop insurance than I am with one of the best crops we’ve ever had and these prices.
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Post by kevlar on Dec 6, 2023 14:45:02 GMT -6
Canola today at Richardson $13.81, nice. Wheat is under $9 despite big gains in the market. Bunge in Harrowby is full until April I think it was. Something is going on here.
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Post by Oatking on Dec 6, 2023 17:58:36 GMT -6
Canola today at Richardson $13.81, nice. Wheat is under $9 despite big gains in the market. Bunge in Harrowby is full until April I think it was. Something is going on here. Hard to buy canola acres at that price . I seen new crop corn bids at 5.5 cdn per bushel. Glad I didn’t buy an x 9 this year!!!! Tough times could be coming . One farmer told me how his family lost the farm in the early 80s! Yikes !
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Post by kenmb on Jan 17, 2024 8:50:39 GMT -6
Don't see any reason for optimism since these December posts.
Still looking for a price surge due to some sort of "news" event next few months but until we get one it looks like sideways or lower.
Contracted some new crop yellow peas for $9.20, sold some wheat in the bin for $8.75 but still have lots of wheat to sell, maybe in a month there might be some change. Been trying to sell mustard for 10 days and not getting anything finalized. I had Broad Grain at Dafoe screw me on a yellow mustard contract in November, I had #3, they had pictures and sample, said they would buy as #1 so signed the contract with #1 stated. December 10 and still no word from them so when I finally got someone on the phone they said they were not buying because the samples weren't #1. No shit it wasn't #1. Of course that contract was for the highest price I could find since summer. So looking to make sure other buyers are being clear on their bids isnt getting mustard sold.
Seems the thing to watch over next few months is recession talk. The experts keep saying low demand. I don't buy that as the correct analysis. Thinking the better term is massive debt is catching up and less spending is going to occur and that will be seen everywhere. Low demand may be true but the actual driver needs to be factored in.
The other thing to watch I suspect is $us. As usual, we were fed all this "news" of rate cuts. Here we are six months later and no rate cuts. In fact we are told we have inflation. To have inflation we need more and more debt expansion yet I don't see that happening. Car lots are full, housing prices aren't going up, fuel is lower, etc. But we will be told there is inflation because the central banking cartel is looking to hike rates. Keep in mind there are lots of debt slaves who actually beleive the central banking cartel is looking out for everyone's best interest.
So if we have rate increase instead, then $us doesn't tank and that makes grains more expensive for exports.
But who knows what happens elsewhere. Perhaps shipping shuts down in middle East and China looks to buy grain. Theoretically Canada is a good source since we send grain across the open ocean. But our world doesn't work much on what makes sense. So middle East trouble will likely lower grain prices for some unsupported explanation.
To sum it up, I am not expecting Goldilocks grain prices going forward.
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Post by wheatking76 on Jan 18, 2024 9:40:42 GMT -6
in my views the cow came on home on this one we've out done our selves teaching the rest of the world how to farm we've priced out selves right out of the market, i talk to a lot of grain buyer and brokers and there buying durum out of Italy cheaper than ours, wheat out of Australia and Russia cheaper and cheaper freight and the list goes on, all we can really offer is quality but that don't matter, peas jumped up nicely but the tariff is only off long enough to buy all our peas then back on in march
i think rates will jump one more time here for sure
hard to really plan what to seed this year hard to say what will be the winner at this point, i wanted to maybe sell some wheat for june delivery well the price is better now than in june so wtf
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