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Post by kenmb on Jul 14, 2023 7:33:15 GMT -6
My mustard is looking really good right now, neighbours canola is looking fine also. Wheat on the other hand is definitely showing the moisture stress, not just mine but all wheat a few miles away. Wheat is very variable in height and in plant stand though what heads are there look to be filled out ok. Seems the mustard and canola canopies over to conserve the soil moisture and didn't draw as much water vs wheat that couldn't keep the moisture that was there. If I get another 1" of rain I think I will see a decent mustard crop. My wheat will be ok but probably below average since the poor ground won't produce well. Wheat all started off really well, one neighbours wheat across road from mine looked really good about a week before flag but now below average, it was the earliest seeded crop near me.
Canola may be a window into the future. A lot less games played there since government reports that manipulate the market don't look at canola, its all based on soy, corn and some wheat. So canola is left more to what people directly involved in the trade think is happening. Sure, soys do effect canola but if the market thinks the government is wrong then I suspect canola will see it diverge more. I am thinking wheat will follow a similar path eventually as government reports seem to be throwing out generalizations about us wheat without really considering the full story.
Keep in mind USDA forecasted a record us crop starting this spring. It was based on the known drought from last year and was all going to be fixed by El Nino so things would be awesome. The crop till July didn't play out that way. And the government reports are now playing some games with finding acres and still predicting a very good crop. A crop that starts poorly doesn't finish strong is my experience but the government analysts say different. Yield may get to average in best case scenario but that was not the production forecast in May.
I think wheat is flying under the wire right now, not much attention paid to what was predicted vs where things are and where the market will be when crop is in the bin.
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Post by Oatking on Jul 14, 2023 8:43:02 GMT -6
I notice the latter seed crops are looking much better than the April seeded crops in general, especially in the dryer zone. Seems like this cooler weather and a few sporadic rains have helped the canola along , but the early seeded canola got burnt up in June. I think it will be an average crop this year according to your average crop insurance yields! Wheat that is turning now shouldn’t be and also you can see the space between the heads on 10 inch spacing !
Hey guys do you think jacking up the seeding rate or seeding with 7.5 spacing would yield more ? I am shocked in Saskatchewan guys seed with 12 inch openers! I wish Deere could make a 7.5 1895 disc drill! That and a c 850 cart would be idea for wheat , oats canola and have the option for 15 inch soybean rows. My 43 ft 1895 has 76 openers so it would be a pretty heavy unit with 7.5! I thought new Holland had a disc drill like the one I described?
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Post by bob123 on Jul 14, 2023 11:48:37 GMT -6
I notice the latter seed crops are looking much better than the April seeded crops in general, especially in the dryer zone. Seems like this cooler weather and a few sporadic rains have helped the canola along , but the early seeded canola got burnt up in June. I think it will be an average crop this year according to your average crop insurance yields! Wheat that is turning now shouldn’t be and also you can see the space between the heads on 10 inch spacing ! Hey guys do you think jacking up the seeding rate or seeding with 7.5 spacing would yield more ? I am shocked in Saskatchewan guys seed with 12 inch openers! I wish Deere could make a 7.5 1895 disc drill! That and a c 850 cart would be idea for wheat , oats canola and have the option for 15 inch soybean rows. My 43 ft 1895 has 76 openers so it would be a pretty heavy unit with 7.5! I thought new Holland had a disc drill like the one I described? I think double shoot isn't a factory option for cnh disc drills on 7.5" either, but you can buy an aftermarket side shoot boot for them although your soil disturbance will go up. As for soys with our 7.5 drill, we have tried 7.5", 15", and 22.5", as well as hiring a 22" planter and the 7.5 spacing has yielded the best. plants also grow taller and narrower so a bit less knife loss then a bushy wide row plant.
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Post by kevlar on Jul 16, 2023 7:28:54 GMT -6
Just watched a video from Drew Lerner talking about the drought in the US. I get the impression it’s a lot worse than what is being let on. He talked mostly about Nebraska, said corn and beans are anywhere from zero to 75% of yield, the better being under irrigation. Hay crops are poor, one guy got 1/2 a bale to the acre when he normally would get 3. The rest of the Midwest didn’t sound much better. The USDA report lowered the corn yield by 4 bushel, when realistically it could be anywhere from 1/2 to 2/3 of a crop. I see a lot more potential for prices to go up. On the other hand, if I had cattle, I would be considering thinning the herd, there could be a flood of cattle for sale by winter.
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Post by kenmb on Jul 16, 2023 8:16:35 GMT -6
Have to pay attention to the details Kevlar. The USDA reports move markets, even our Canada prices are largely determined by the US government expertise - its another one of those quirks of our futures trading. The USDA primarily focuses attention on corn and soybeans, or more accurate to say these two crops get the news. And most of the corn and soys get grown in the "I" states. So Nebraska can be down on corn yield but good rains a few hundred miles east and better ground means the corn crop can be unaffected overall.
What should be noted is wheat is a less common crop in the I states, meaning a bad wheat crop in Nebraska and Kansas is not made up by great growing conditions in the I states. So this is where we pay attention to details. Corn does effect wheat price because feed value always gets drawn into the big picture. However if the wheat is in short supply then wheat does not drag up the corn price in relation, and so either wheat gets locked in with corn or wheat decouples.
It seems pretty clear the major wheat growing areas of the US are not going to have a great crop, probably less than average, and acres were cut back for corn too. And so now we look to Canada to be a major wheat exporter to make up for any possible shortfall in the US. And what do we guess from there.
To me the big question is whether our futures trading scheme (where you can buy and sell infinite bushels when none exist) stay locked in with corn or decoupled some time in the winter when facts start getting in the news.
Also, the corn crop in the US is not in the bin yet. It's only mid July.
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Post by kenmb on Jul 16, 2023 8:22:41 GMT -6
I should also note that as an example, mustard is trending higher right now. Record amount of acres yet price is going up. I suspect mainly because alot of those new acres were in the US - that was the news this winter. So I would expect that the US mustard crop has buyers feeling nervous about the mustard supply even though a massive amount of acres were put in. And I suspect those guys are right.
So this would be an indication of what smart people actually do. They look at the reality and make decisions and are not affected by games or futures trading. Specialty crops can be a good insight into reality. So if mustard is looking to be expecting a poor crop then one would expect wheat also, is how I read the present situation since if mustard is grown in a region we can bet on wheat be one of the main crops grown there also.
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Post by shmiffy on Jul 16, 2023 8:30:10 GMT -6
insert code here
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Post by kenmb on Jul 19, 2023 9:35:38 GMT -6
Best to put this chart capture here. Markets actually dropped a few hours after Russia announced it won't play ball with allowing safe passage of Ukrainian grain. The West wasn't holding up to its end of the agreed conditions so Russia pulled the pin. Then we have reports of ports being attacked, which could very well be Ukraine doing it, or more specifically certain factions within the country wanting more chaos and creating more news. Anyway, point being is ignore the "news". Most of it is made up or spun to paint the opposite of what is reality. Think back to when peaceful protests were desirable because they burnt down city blocks and killed a few people and so law should not interfere. That kind of "news" is the same kind of news we get from around the world. The crop isn't made yet. Even though the smart money sold off grains a couple weeks ago because the crop was made with the rains in the corn belt around July 1st. It seems now the smart money is thinking the crop isn't made yet because heat is forecasted. Imagine that - heat in July. The smart money isn't so smart it seems. Actually that isn't really true. The people moving markets know what they are doing. Still think a guy holds tight for a while longer in regards to wheat. My thinking is nothing to do with charts or forecasts or world news, but simply shutting out the BS and thinking food is still needed as part of life. The markets can say otherwise and they do determine the price so its a gamble. One more leg up and I will likely start selling some, will see.
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Post by Oatking on Jul 19, 2023 17:27:51 GMT -6
I like supporting our 4 h program . This year I went together with a neighbour and bought a steer. Wow ! I was surprised at the price per pound! 5.73/lb! I still think they do a great job raising the animals and it’s by far the best meat I have every had! I just wonder if droughty conditions or something else comes along and pushes up feed prices or lack of hay , at what price will people turn away from beef. Today on Cjob they were talking about high cost of food and they brought up the issue people actually were angry at store employees because of the cost. I think we have soon hit a tipping point on food costs.
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Post by kevlar on Jul 19, 2023 18:30:55 GMT -6
Even after all this inflation, I’m not sure if we’re even at par yet with the rest of the world? We’ve had cheap food for so long and an abundance of it that people think it’s their right. Haven’t checked lately what percentage of peoples income in North America goes towards food, but historically it’s been quite a bit lower than most of the world. Lower income people are certainly feeling the pinch, and I do feel sympathetic towards them, but those living beyond their means to begin with that are now complaining about the price of food, I have no sympathy. I’d bet most of the population would rather starve to death than give up their $1000 cell phone.
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Post by kenmb on Jul 20, 2023 7:25:10 GMT -6
That's my view in a nutshell Kevlar. We have it pretty well here and food makes up a very small portion of spending. And most noteworthy is much of that spending goes to crap that has little value compared to food, shelter and energy. But these things have become a basic part of life and so almost seen as necessary.
Wait till people start talking about debt. There is an entire generation that has grown up with debt being simply the easiest way to a good life. You could actually profit from debt. Latest statement from FCC says they are at 9.55% and Richardson credit line is at 10.25%. Now put those numbers into context with a generation that only knows how to live by having debt. If people complain about food, can we speculate on whether they will do their utmost to eliminate debt or will they be so accustomed to debt that they simply pay the higher daily costs of the new interest rates?
Prime rate is now at 7%. Which is actually about near where it should be. Maybe should be a little less. Point being is debt is costly, always has been except for a 15 year stretch. We have to wait and see how many people figure debt should always be cheap, and when they find out that is not going to be the case, how will they adapt.
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Post by cptusa on Jul 20, 2023 10:23:17 GMT -6
We're going to bake with no rain and short sub soil moisture next week. Markets could explode if that all comes about.
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iamwill
Full Member
Posts: 249 Likes: 166
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Post by iamwill on Jul 20, 2023 10:33:40 GMT -6
In Canada in 2021 the average monthly wage was just over $4900. Groceries per person $217 so less than 5%. Not including restaurant dining or takeout. Would bet lots of people spend more on just about everything else per month than food. Three necessities food, clothing and shelter. Cost definitely not in that order. Would guess the average family with younger kids would be making more than that so income to food ratio should stay more or less the same. Some people have no idea how to keep track of their spending and thus are always broke. The old saying of if it's something people need they bitch about the cost and if it's something people want they don't care what it costs is definitely still true.
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Post by garyfunk on Aug 25, 2023 8:25:26 GMT -6
Checking out the markets this morning and the grains are on the rise again. Must be the third or fourth Friday in a row where we've seen this, usually fridays are a sell. Tells me there's still room on the upside. Oats futures are interesting. Seems the last three August's have been almost exactly the same. In '21 the writing was already on the wall where supply was going to be by August and that was way less than half of demand. In August of '22 it was obvious that production was going to easily surpass demand but the futures were the same. And this yr with only 70 percent of normal acres with an extremely dry spring/early summer the market figures a five dollar bushel is about right again? What does that tell you about the ability of the futures market to predict prices of the actual commodity?
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Post by kevlar on Oct 25, 2023 18:59:18 GMT -6
Sooooooo, what’s happening to the grain prices??😞. Should have locked in my canola back when it was $19, but at that time it looked like it had about a 5% chance of making it.
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