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Post by SWMan on Jul 25, 2020 22:06:00 GMT -6
What are your thoughts on grain prices going forward? I've added a poll.
Personally have nothing forward contracted, would like to see this one in the bin first.
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Post by meskie on Jul 25, 2020 22:27:33 GMT -6
I’m not sure what’s gonna happen. So much going on that no one really knows. Prices are going the right direction last couple of weeks.
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Post by SWMan on Jul 25, 2020 23:28:13 GMT -6
Yes things are very uncertain. I'm concerned if that dam blows in China, would not only be a human catastrophe but probably kill demand along the way. v
Might be best to trickle some out into the rally???
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Post by meskie on Jul 26, 2020 0:13:53 GMT -6
That’s what I’m gonna try and do. Put some target prices in and see what happens. Sell some at a guaranteed profit then see what the crop is once it’s in the bin.
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Post by victory on Jul 27, 2020 10:01:39 GMT -6
We generally pre-sell about a third of our production. With all the excess rain in our area this year, very limited selling so far on our farm. Like to see what we get in the bin first.
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Post by SWMan on Oct 8, 2020 7:32:37 GMT -6
Still 0% sold and watching the markets rise here, turning into a pretty good rally. I'm thinking there is pretty good farmer selling happening because can't hardly get a nearby delivery window at the canola crush plant or local elevators.
So, either this means that there is a large crop that will continue to pressure delivery/basis opportunity.....or when the selling dries up the market will really take off! To see it rally strongly right through harvest is possibly a good sign???
Everything else is inflating in price, why not grain...LOL
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Post by kenmb on Oct 8, 2020 8:59:11 GMT -6
Prices up through harvest is the most interesting point of all this.
The story of prices set through futures is that the mechanism is supposedly taking into account all knowns of the time and setting the price in the future. Stock markets are a good example. The Federal Reserve comes out with a new policy on interest rates and stocks change very little because it was "anticipated and all priced in already". So the future known. The droughts in the US and the Iowa storm are already priced into the future as these things occur. So updated crop reports don't change pricing - it's all priced in already. Or so the story goes. Until it doesn't. And then there is no mention of things being already priced in. As a buyer, North American harvest is your best chance to get lower prices yet apparently all buyers are bidding up right now. Futures market says buyers already knew crop condition and amount available months ago and set the futures price (which is now today) a long time ago and the price is constantly adjusted as events occur. Apparently all buyers were wrong so price goes up now.
Been hearing all year how flax wasn't going to move. Lock in your price, increasingly more planted acres in Russia and Black Sea region, closer to the end user markets, etc, etc. Yet flax is still going up. US storm and drought has zero to do with flax.
All a bunch of BS. The industry will say whatever it needs to say to make it appear we have a supply/demand system. Then crickets when the same system doesn't follow the storyline.
So markets up during harvest is saying to me anything can happen now. Because the story we are told about futures pricing already pricing in all factors isn't holding true. I booked some yellow peas at $7, waiting for $8 to book more. Will move some flax and mustard right away to get cash flow. Cash flow being the reason prices are usually low in fall because futures know farmers will sell at a lower price for that reason - except this year. Waiting now on malt barley to move a little higher. Can get $5.10 at elevator for J-F-M delivery. But with all other crops moving up I will hope for higher.
Peas have been down for a few years because of tariifs in India we are told. Did India lift them or did India just figure out in the last few weeks that their population started smoking a bunch of dope and 1 billion people will he getting the munchies this fall. Because India should have figured this all out months ago and priced in their now current needs.
And at any moment prices can go down. Because futures scam says everyone may suddenly figure out they were on the wrong side of the boat at that same moment in time and everyone will pull bids at the same moment.
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Post by victory on Oct 8, 2020 10:09:18 GMT -6
It is generally wise to reward a good price rally with some sales. Very very seldom do markets continue up without having retracements or pullbacks.
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Post by cptusa on Oct 8, 2020 10:20:39 GMT -6
Causishly bullish.
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Post by kevlar on Oct 8, 2020 11:48:47 GMT -6
Canola is all sold, hopefully last load will be gone by next week. We never store canola, not worth the risk in my mind. I hope prices keep trending up, but honestly have a lot of room to drop also to get back to what it was a few months ago. Quite a few years ago, had some canola I was going to hold onto, dad sold all his. I decided to let one load go, the bin was starting to get warm, it was dry, so decided to get rid of it all. Right after that the price kept dropping all year, so right after harvest I got the best price of the year and avoided a catastrophy. Since then sold it right off the combine, pay bills, the best canola is the stuff that never sees the inside of a bin. Remember the guys selling $14 canola for $10? That stings. As far as feed and other grains, I see flat prices, the world is just so on edge right now, I can't see anyone wanting to stick their necks out paying higher prices.
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Post by Albertabuck on Oct 8, 2020 12:32:45 GMT -6
On the Canadian side of the border I see the current prices on anything be it grain or beef as nothing special, I mean when the dollar isn't worth spit, the buying power of what you end up with is still much lower than normal.
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Post by Oatking on Oct 8, 2020 12:57:13 GMT -6
I am interested in the corn soybean ratio too! right now I think it is favouring more bean acres. Would like to see the corn acres go up and take the pressure off the bean acres. Winter wheat is struggling in the U.S. from dryness so maybe wheat may see a bump in prices. I have contracted a fair amount of oats acres and priced out 100 bushel an acre for 3.85 a bushel and feel that is a good start for pricing for 2021 , and canola priced in the 11.25 off the combine for 2021 so yeah currently prices are looking up and probably wise to take advantage of rallies, when they come up. You don't need an expensive market advisor telling you how to make money. Most farmers now a days know when to sell to stay profitable. I always think if you can stay in the top third of prices you are successful. Waiting to see a new crop flax price and soybean price. Actually I am quite excited to start the 2021 crop season. I feel very fortunate to have a job that I love.
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bap
Junior Member
Posts: 61
Likes: 28
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Post by bap on Oct 8, 2020 23:33:52 GMT -6
I don't know what to think, but my brother thinks flax will hit 17...I hope he is right.
He...guy on gx 3 weeks ago was saying Oh ya could be one of the top 2 sask harvests bushel wise...I think he must have been in a hemp field.
I mean I don't think it was too bad but top 2....I wasn't too well traveled this year and I think there was for sure some good crops but overall it didn't seem like a real record breaker to me.
I heard lately they have toned it down to average or slightly above...
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Post by kenmb on Oct 9, 2020 10:05:32 GMT -6
Well, from Johnston's daily two days ago:
Brown Flax:
42t, 1 super B load of #1 Wholeseed for $16.50/bu FOB Farm at Alameda, SK for Dec-Feb pick-up
84t, 2 super B loads of #1 Canada for $17.00/bu FOB Farm at Balcarres, SK for Dec-Jan pick-up
I get the impression the current story is "food security". And, just a few minutes ago I heard the radio announce Trudeau government is giving $200M? to food banks to fight food insecurity. Because "food security" is a new buzz word brought forth in the last few years. Yes, even when those on wellfare can get hand outs to cover their cell phones and cable TV costs, can buy alcohol and drugs with government handouts it is food security that now becomes an issue. And covid is making it an issue. Even though there has been no issue with food supply or delivery. But that doesn't mean it won't be a news item to get everyone worried. And with inflation cranking up all other prices, a newsworthy rise in grain prices could become another point for government intervention to ensure "food security".
Can't have a food security problem while grain prices keep trending down. So pay attention to the buzz words and what stories become news because that's how things work. It's possible the futures markets simply didn't price in crop production properly or flooding in China but I doubt it.
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Post by cptusa on Oct 9, 2020 11:19:30 GMT -6
Pour out some feed and slap the bull's ass cause we're going higher now!
Disclaimer: Taking free marketing advice from a guy on the internet is not the best idea.
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