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Post by kevlar on Jan 18, 2024 12:50:40 GMT -6
I think I’m about to start dumping most stuff here now, have been waiting since harvest for some signs of improvement but there just hasn’t been. Have had a target in for some canola and it gets close when most years it would have triggered but it’s not this year so am assuming they aren’t too desperate for it. Get short lived rallies but it drops off instantly and lower than where it began. Kind of disappointed considering we had such a good crop and was hoping to get ahead but now it’s just going to turn out to be an average year money wise. Almost makes me sick if I compare what I could have made if I sold everything right at harvest as opposed to now.
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Post by Oatking on Jan 18, 2024 13:33:25 GMT -6
My friend is a grain buyer. He is afraid if a lot of farmer give up waiting we could see quite a tumble ! Now would look good! In my opinion ? Oats and wheat and beans look to be the the best bet ! One thing, with drought still a concern , wheat is your safest bet! My goal is to try and target a gross of 600 an acre as a minimum. That is hard to do with 14 dollar canola and 40 bushel average yield . I lock in 5.65 for my oat acres at 100 bushel an acre . I f I can hit my average yield I should be easily over six hundred. Seeding the whole farm to oats has crossed my mind!!!! I am a farmer more concerned on profit than making my crop rotation look nice! I still rotate but in lean times , that gets thrown out! One likely issue that might hurt us canadians this year due to lower crop prices is American government subsidies ! Especially with how bad corn prices have sagged!
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Post by Oatking on Jan 19, 2024 12:08:25 GMT -6
Curious how much barge traffic the Mississippi River is seeing now ! Due to the Panama Canal restrictions what is that doing to corn basis s ?
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Post by kenmb on Jan 25, 2024 10:00:30 GMT -6
I don't think a guy can rationalize prices and so whether or not the river levels are up or down really don't factor in. Sure, someone will pen an article to say something as to why it does matter, but it does not. For local guys around the river it would matter, but not for futures market.
I don't follow the charts, I let other guys post their general comments and so far the "funds" (another mysterious entity that all seems to move in one direction) are near record volume of short positions as I understand it. Meaning the most money is betting on lower prices. Imagine that. Basically the smart money is saying that these low prices are going lower. I actually don't think that is a smart bet but this entity called "funds" says so. I would think the smart money would be betting on a bottom right now and would be switching out to long. But that's not how are markets work. USDA has even printed saying wheat ending stocks are lower this year vs last year yet wheat is being bet on to go even lower. Lentils, peas, rice are all high which are all food grains but the funds think the other major food grain called wheat should go lower. I guess they think wheat is still to expensive to eat so poorer countries will eat vegetables and meat to save money.
So point being is the "markets" are swung by entities and not so much things like river levels. And is why news events are used to explain market swings. Funds betting on wheat still going lower have a come to Jesus moment based on a news story and the market reverses. It's not how supply and demand is supposed to work but it is how our world works.
Lots of time for a news event to create a reversal before summer. But since I have no idea what the "smart" money is going to do, I figured I would make some sales now when normally I would wait it out. I do think there is lots of possible news stories in play and prices will reverse but I just am not willing to put all my grain in on that bet.
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Post by Oatking on Jan 26, 2024 17:48:59 GMT -6
I checked out the MASC crop prices today . I was surprised how high canola was valued. 16.44 a bushel compared to soybeans at 14.40ish! Oats was priced out at 4.40ish and wheat at 8.98 a bushel, Noticed flax only at 12. Something !!
I will be definitely submitting my oat hundred bushel an acre contract at 5.65 a bushel to raise my level of insurance .
I know I hate to think the worse but , it’s piece of mind knowing you have your cost and than some secured .
I wonder how Sask and Alberta will value their crops?
To be honest i was relieved to see the canola value ! I thought it would be 13.50 !
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Post by shmiffy on Jan 26, 2024 20:34:53 GMT -6
When Sask crop insurance prices come out I’m sure they will be close to what you thought. I don’t think it will be that good.
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Post by kevlar on Jan 28, 2024 22:42:16 GMT -6
I have a feeling that the crazy world we’ve become is catching up with the grain markets. Turmoil on the Us southern border, imminent war with Iran, everything Trudeau. I think the chickens are coming home to roost.
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Post by kenmb on Jan 29, 2024 9:02:39 GMT -6
Was going to mention this previously in one of my idle thinking posts. As Kevlar posted in the Evergrande thread, there is stuff going on in China according to our news. And this is said to be effecting our grain prices recently in that demand from China is low.
Again, this is our "news" telling us this. Although Evergrande is a seperate issue from today's ramblings.
If China is really in economic trouble, we have to keep in mind that "China" (ie another entity no one bothers to define), is really tied in with the largest global corporations operating there. So if China is not importing grain then Pepsi Co, Nabisco, and what ever other corporation operating there is not importing raw goods to process and sell. So we will soon see large corporations suffering. And since a lot of exports from China go to the USA then definitely demand is down which means the US economy has fallen significantly.
Yet our news will say China is in trouble and the USA is doing fine. When you actually bother to define "China" then it is much harder to accept both these scenarios as fact.
One thing that should be easy to understand is massive debt expansion drives consumption. The news will say otherwise. You need to decide what is true. My position is the economy won't by fine, in my mind it can't be. While I won't say what exactly is happening elsewhere in the world or China, I will tend to agree grain can find its value priced at cost of production or lower. It is why I mentioned I am selling some grain now when normally I wouldn't. Sure, I may be wrong, but considering what is reality, then it makes sense.
Now, on the other hand is the other wild card which I call "news". We can have lots of events that drive grain prices higher. Weather issues for spring rally, shipping issues choking Europe exports, rate cuts leading to more inflation, revised crop outlooks where USDA figures they over estimated something. I really think we will see some volatility going into summer. But nothing is certain.
As a side note, in the Weather thread I mention January highs set in 1931. While I don't want to be the guy saying it, I can't help but acknowledge that sometimes weather cycles repeat. Remember what is famous about the early 1930s.
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Post by kevlar on Jan 29, 2024 14:34:42 GMT -6
Canola has dipped under $13 here now 🤮
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Post by Oatking on Jan 29, 2024 15:14:04 GMT -6
Canola has dipped under $13 here now 🤮 The experts tell us our canola is too expensive on the world market !! I grow my canola on a shoe string budget !!! But 13 is making things pretty tight !
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Post by kevlar on Jan 29, 2024 15:37:35 GMT -6
Doesn’t pencil out on my farm, unless fertilizer has come down more, haven’t priced any yet so not sure what it’s at, haven’t booked any canola seed yet either, and might not if this trend continues.
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Post by wheatking76 on Jan 29, 2024 18:48:46 GMT -6
ya nothing make ya think what the heck more than lower and lower prices, i remember when i started farming $12 was the big dollar money and now were no even breaking even
all i can say at this moment is thank god i dont have big loans and payments to make this fall
was thinking on selling some wheat for june but todays price is better than june price go figure??
hearing alot of acres being switched to mustard, i always thought that was kind of a niche/small market and its soon to bee flooded therefore taking prices down to
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Post by SWMan on Jan 29, 2024 20:10:35 GMT -6
I think I’m about to start dumping most stuff here now, have been waiting since harvest for some signs of improvement but there just hasn’t been. Giving up with half the marketing year left? Although this is almost what needs to happen for a rally, grain needs to be out of farmers hands.
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Post by kevlar on Jan 29, 2024 20:23:36 GMT -6
I think I’m about to start dumping most stuff here now, have been waiting since harvest for some signs of improvement but there just hasn’t been. Giving up with half the marketing year left? Although this is almost what needs to happen for a rally, grain needs to be out of farmers hands. Hello!! Welcome back!!! Sure have missed you around here!!!!!
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Post by hardrockacres on Jan 30, 2024 6:22:06 GMT -6
Good to hear your still kicking SWman.
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