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Post by cptusa on Jan 30, 2024 9:44:48 GMT -6
I think I’m about to start dumping most stuff here now, have been waiting since harvest for some signs of improvement but there just hasn’t been. Giving up with half the marketing year left? Although this is almost what needs to happen for a rally, grain needs to be out of farmers hands. I've heard this so many times and can never grasp it. Logically to me the price needs to go up to pry the grain loose, but instead everyone says the price newd to drop to pry the grain loose, seems contrary to what should occur. Example: OPEC talks about cutting production and price goes up.
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Post by kevlar on Jan 30, 2024 11:05:44 GMT -6
It makes me wonder if exports haven’t dried up, not hard to imagine when our PM has pissed off every country we deal with. Bunge at Harrowby is full right out until June, I can’t figure out how they can be full that far out when the closer months have been a better price than they are in the future months. I don’t see myself booking months ahead and storing it for less than I could get today. And this has been the same for most commodities, or at least locally and for my crops.
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Post by Oatking on Jan 30, 2024 11:43:10 GMT -6
It makes me wonder if exports haven’t dried up, not hard to imagine when our PM has pissed off every country we deal with. Bunge at Harrowby is full right out until June, I can’t figure out how they can be full that far out when the closer months have been a better price than they are in the future months. I don’t see myself booking months ahead and storing it for less than I could get today. And this has been the same for most commodities, or at least locally and for my crops. Plus 15 c or higher in southern Alberta in January can’t be a good omen for a good crop in 24! We have multiply days above zero in the rrv. We need a lot of rain to recharge our soil but like any year it needs to come in timely amounts! My luck, is 8 inches of rain will come all at once and than drought ! Because of that I won’t be selling new crop canola for under 13! But than we really might not have a choice ! Double whammies are my norm! The last major drought in the rrv saw farmers gravitate to lentils ! Than came the start of the 90s and the dream of lentils floated away with the monsoons! Do you guys switch your rotation due to drought or keep the same crop rotation ?
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Post by kenmb on Jan 30, 2024 11:59:52 GMT -6
Valid point Kevlar. If exports were low then must be lots of grain/food around. Yet price for peas, lentils and rice (and maybe a few others) would say otherwise.
I don't know what most of the canola gets used for so hard to guess what part of our life must change to change canola demand. I find it easier to think of food. People need food, energy and shelter. So regardless of what the markets say, demand for food is steady day by day. People don't stop eating for a year.
Apparently my local Pioneer concrete terminal barely had room for my 90t of wheat. A train was supposed to arrive Sunday but hadn't yet. The week before the elevator bumped its bid, and I would assume in anticipation of the train coming. Maybe a guy should think on those events, maybe not. But let's say I was a business and placing bets on a market. It would seem to me Pioneer is betting on higher prices. Trying to fill storage to max now so as to sell later at a higher price. Yeah, I know they don't do that, they just handle grain, and hedge sales and all that. But at the most basic level, a guy would think someone in the sales end beleives filling storage now is a good idea. Could be all that grain is presold and waiting to export. Would need to know the business operation from top down to really understand. Since big corporations are split into divisions then only those at the top really know and give direction to those below.
I see news of ADM having issues. Big grain marketing company but one division was playing games and shuffling funds around to place some bets on grain markets.
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Post by kevlar on Jan 30, 2024 16:46:30 GMT -6
We don’t change our rotation because of a possible drought, to be honest I’ve never experienced a drought, was really dry in the late’80’s but I was only maybe 10 at the time. Had two of the driest years on record here last year and three years ago and took off our best crops ever 🤷♂️ I’ve seen it really dry at seeding time only to have 3/4 of the crops drowned out a month later. No point in worrying about what might be 6 months from now.
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Post by SWMan on Jan 30, 2024 18:37:16 GMT -6
Giving up with half the marketing year left? Although this is almost what needs to happen for a rally, grain needs to be out of farmers hands. I've heard this so many times and can never grasp it. Logically to me the price needs to go up to pry the grain loose, but instead everyone says the price newd to drop to pry the grain loose, seems contrary to what should occur. Example: OPEC talks about cutting production and price goes up. They know by now with all the data farmers willingly give up to Deere/Climate Fieldview/Farmers Edge/etc exactly what farmers are producing and their selling patterns. Last week a local elevator put a "premium" on wheat and bought 2 trains worth! When the market is on a ski slope downward it can all of a sudden look pretty good to get the price you saw a couple weeks ago. I'm sure by now they have the psychological end of things figured out too. Fundamentals play very little role in price determination now, as has been noted.
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Post by shmiffy on Jan 30, 2024 22:04:58 GMT -6
2007 an ex grain buyer told if they want grain they lower the price, when that doesn’t work they lower it some more. Third try they put it up alittle. Said people sell more on the down side and very seldom when it’s going up.
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Post by kevlar on Jan 30, 2024 22:17:21 GMT -6
2007 an ex grain buyer told if they want grain they lower the price, when that doesn’t work they lower it some more. Third try they put it up alittle. Said people sell more on the down side and very seldom when it’s going up. That actually makes a lot of sense.
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Post by victory on Jan 31, 2024 20:57:19 GMT -6
No it doesn't! Doesn't say much for my sense as a farmer.
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Post by kevlar on Jan 31, 2024 21:16:45 GMT -6
No it doesn't! Doesn't say much for my sense as a farmer. No, it doesn’t make sense in a normal way, but in a psychological way it does, and likely most of us have fallen into that trap at one point. It’s like they say, take your emotions out of your marketing. Easier said than done.
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Post by Oatking on Feb 2, 2024 14:12:05 GMT -6
the losses that are speculated in the mid west are huge . Man , do the subsidies in the US bail you out of a 100 an acre plus loss? how can that sector survive with that type of business loss even before a crop is planted !?
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Post by shmiffy on Feb 2, 2024 18:51:41 GMT -6
Tell me again there was a record corn crop in that state.
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Post by kenmb on Feb 8, 2024 18:51:37 GMT -6
StatsCan put out new data today. Don't know what the revisions are. Looks like the dryness really pulled down yields of crops except corn and soys, maybe eastern Canada did well so those two crops are up. Not looking good for mustard, that's the other crop showing a notable boost in supply. www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.action?pid=3210035901
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Post by Oatking on Feb 8, 2024 19:36:25 GMT -6
I heard confection sunflowers are 40cents a pound new crop contract. I bet that will fill fast
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Post by cptusa on Feb 8, 2024 21:35:17 GMT -6
Got my crop insurance claim worked last month. Adjuster says they have more claims to work this year then they did derecho 2020 year.
Big crop my ass.
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