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Weather
Oct 21, 2020 9:24:53 GMT -6
Post by torriem on Oct 21, 2020 9:24:53 GMT -6
Current weather and temperatures can be explained fairly clearly by the jet stream moving south. Pretty neat animation here that also can show temperatures: www.netweather.tv/charts-and-data/global-jetstream (might have to spin the planet and scroll wheel to zoom out to see North America. As the jet stream moves south, it lets cold polar air flow down, which tends to be held back by the jet stream. If this were January they would call it a "polar vortex." A week from now they predict it will move back north a ways, allowing temperatures to come back up for a while for most of us. The jet stream used to be more stable than it is now. However it is weakening and more prone to move and to be less predictable. So we can expect more of these cold dips in the falls and winters. Should continue to keep harvest very interesting for the remainder of my career. Last fall had at least two of these events during harvest as we all (don't want to) remember.
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gleanerl
Full Member
Posts: 103 Likes: 95
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Weather
Oct 21, 2020 17:22:54 GMT -6
Post by gleanerl on Oct 21, 2020 17:22:54 GMT -6
Still non stop rain here in Ontario. Only half done my soys, corn cobs showing lots of mould growth now. Would welcome some frozen temps, get the ground hard enough to finish the beans and get at corn without sinking in mud.
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Weather
Oct 21, 2020 21:24:08 GMT -6
via mobile
Post by kenmb on Oct 21, 2020 21:24:08 GMT -6
Nice jetstream map there. If you follow the global warming narrative, these changes in temperature and the polar vortex are part of global warming. The story where global warming means some places will be colder. That's the science that you can't question.
If we follow sunspot activity and lower solar output, then what happens is oceans cool off a bit but land cools faster. Denser colder northern air pushes on the warmer southern air and so dips down into lower latitudes more so over land than water. So the jet stream becomes more erratic if temperatures are changing. If temperatures were more stable then the jetstream is more stable.
Therefore, depending on where you sit on the science of global warming will depend on how you look at weather on your farm. I agree with Torrie that I expect to see more weather variations in spring and fall as the jetstream is expected to be more north/south extending. For a few weeks the weather can be quite stable and nice, but when it changes it will be more dramatic because the jetstream position will be the bigger factor. Jetstream maps and forecasts might be helpful.
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Weather
Oct 21, 2020 22:44:32 GMT -6
Post by SWMan on Oct 21, 2020 22:44:32 GMT -6
The jet stream used to be more stable than it is now. However it is weakening and more prone to move and to be less predictable. So we can expect more of these cold dips in the falls and winters. Should continue to keep harvest very interesting for the remainder of my career. Last fall had at least two of these events during harvest as we all (don't want to) remember. So this weakening is a long term thing? I think I might grow barley next year instead of corn if this continues...
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Weather
Oct 21, 2020 22:45:59 GMT -6
Post by torriem on Oct 21, 2020 22:45:59 GMT -6
I don't think I'll ever have a "normal" year in my career. Floods, droughts, heat waves, polar vortexes, early snows. Such fun.
Laying aside the issue of carbon emissions, it's an interesting question what farms should do in response to increasingly unpredictable and extreme weather in general. Be it flood, drought, cold, heat, crazy Iowa wind storms. One thing's for sure, we are starting to see insurance companies price this sort of thing out, and it's likely to get expensive.
I farm in a desert-like place that is probably un-farmable by most of your standards. At least without irrigation. Everyone in my area is starting to do drainage now (like most of you probably have done for decades), something we've never dealt with in the past. Three inches of rain in one day, and another three a couple weeks later is not something we're set up to deal with here. Always fun.
One thing that's kind of interesting is that when I was a child, we would go play on some sand dunes not far from my farm here. Now I couldn't even tell you where they were as the grass has covered all of them up. The opposite of desertification I suppose. Also the normal storm directions are opposite now than they were 10 or 20 years ago. Storms used to come from the east. Now they come from the west. Also in the winter we hardly see chinook winds anymore.
Right now I'm looking at the thermometer and hoping the ground won't start freezing for a couple more weeks. Still need to put in a septic tank at my brother's house and do some trenching in my yard for the new shop. And also have to yet blow the underground mainlines out. Usually would be doing that right now, but it's blowing snow out there just now. At least I finished harvest last night. My neighbors still have a canola field or two to go and quite a bit of alfalfa seed.
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Weather
Oct 21, 2020 22:56:15 GMT -6
Post by torriem on Oct 21, 2020 22:56:15 GMT -6
So this weakening is a long term thing? I think I might grow barley next year instead of corn if this continues... Hard question. Compared to the last 100 years, yes it appears so. For example, the jet stream is what keeps the UK warm and dry (ish). The long-term trend there seems to be cooler and wetter on average. EDIT: not entirely... The ocean currents are a strong factor in keeping them warm. But what will a variable jet stream mean for us next year? No one can say, except to speak in statistics. The odds of crappy weather events are increasing. Hail insurance is starting to reflect that in my area, the risk of hail is worse now than it was 10-20 years ago. But does this all mean next year will probably be nasty weather? Not necessarily.
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Weather
Oct 22, 2020 11:56:55 GMT -6
Post by kenmb on Oct 22, 2020 11:56:55 GMT -6
La Nina was officially declared in September. If you want lots of reading I would suggest following what AstoM posts as he is generally right with his predictions and so I will mention this one that he repeated recently: Yes, the winter of 2020-21 will be cold and snowy, but it will be a short winter. Then, the coming winter & spring of 2022 will be a winter for the ages - especially for two thirds of North America - with much snow, ice and subzero temperatures lasting well through spring 2022 as it will also be a La Nina winter for many as well along with incursions of arctic air by means of the polar vortexes.
It will be so bad that many regions will go from winter 2022 to summer 2022 as spring 2022 will essentially be non-existent due to the horrendous winter conditions that will cause a mini-permafrost due to the layers of snow and ice lasting well into 2022.
Above taken from the last page here
Interesting to read a La Nina event starts every new solar cycle, though I suppose that makes sense as the sun is quiet then and thus the definition of a solar cycle starting. Though such a belief hinges on the idea that the sun warms the planet and so a weak sun cools it. Modern day global warming experts don't hold such ideas.
As always, posted for you to decide what is real and what kind of temperature trends you notice on your farm. I speculate one of the reasons I got a good yield this year on a very low rainfall was because we didn't have the usual hot summer conditions that typically punish a crop that has low rainfall.
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Post by Beerwiser on Oct 22, 2020 12:27:09 GMT -6
Interesting how some have had weather patterns change. For me damaging t stroms still come from the SE and weaker ones come from the NW. NE winds still bring a significant rain or snow event. The only thing I have noticed is we are getting more winter wind. Not necessarily strong wind, but enough to make it miserable. Or it could be age lol. This is the first year in about 5 or 6 that I had great haying weather, it was just 3 weeks late. I figure it has been 8 to 10 since we had great harvest weather. Still canolas we not drying down though, not really sure why. Its not like the humidity was up, but there was only a few hours a day to combine. When it got tough, it got tough quick. I have a feeling guys should be watching the bins closely. Should be easy since you sure didn't need much bin space this year.
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Weather
Oct 23, 2020 13:06:50 GMT -6
Post by Albertabuck on Oct 23, 2020 13:06:50 GMT -6
Thats interesting Beer, we aint that far apart, maybe bit over 100 miles being on a NW/SE line, and I would have to say my main weather events come from the SW thru to NW for the most part. NE and SE winds are normally not good as they come cold. SW is the main bugger here in winter, but then that is probably more due to to maintain some air movement and sun to dry things out, shelter to SW is often lacking.
We too had that good run of weather later on in summer thru to fall, took a while before some ground dried out enough to do anything, and then it did also seem like some plants were effected by how wet it had been. You mentioned about your canola not drying, that was a common thing with other types of crops as well, nothing would mature, just was like it was in slow motion. I mentioned I still have some grass hay to bale, been down now for several weeks, still good shape and green, was taking its time to dry though, but had a horrific time cutting it. Lot of fescue in it, and I have never had fesuce that was that hard to cut in my life. It was like rubber, was flat where there was nothing else to hold it up. For the first time I had the centers popping out on my soft core bales where it was almost pure fescue in the core. Gave up trying to cut with the hay header on the swather, hit it with my NH 1475 haybine with 16 foot head, and even that thing had trouble. For example, if the point of a guard was just a little rough from hitting a rock at some point, that was enough to cause a ball of shit to form and plug the knife at that point. Was actually pulling it with the 4850 at reduced speed because its only 540, and while that combination worked surprisingly well even though I coulld never get over about 3 MPH, I could tell there was something back there. Then on some high land in one field hit some pure fesuce and all of a sudden machine is skidding sideways and the smoke is flying. Long and short, even though the knife and system is like new, it was overloaded to the point where it smoked the drive belt. Now I have always said NH went downhill after Ford and Fiat got involved, never had that ever happen on one of my old Speedrowers, but then they had a more positive drive. But then I have never had that issue with this 2300 series head either, given I hardly ever use it anymore. But is was the funky rubbery condition of that fescue that was causing the issues.
I attribute much of it to the plants being stressed.
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Weather
Nov 8, 2020 20:57:04 GMT -6
via mobile
Post by meskie on Nov 8, 2020 20:57:04 GMT -6
What’s everybody’s snow totals from this storm. We had maybe 6-8” this morning and likely another 6” when I got home at 6 from my sons hockey game. Wasn’t snowing when I left around 1:30.
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Weather
Nov 8, 2020 21:27:23 GMT -6
Post by Beerwiser on Nov 8, 2020 21:27:23 GMT -6
About 4-6" of fluff. Made some good drifts, good thing it is soft. The cold and wind is the crappy part.
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Weather
Nov 8, 2020 22:24:23 GMT -6
Post by SWMan on Nov 8, 2020 22:24:23 GMT -6
Nothing here but I just brought home a 800 Summit 159", maybe I should be heading your way...
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Weather
Nov 8, 2020 23:16:55 GMT -6
via mobile
Post by meskie on Nov 8, 2020 23:16:55 GMT -6
Not enough to take my sled out of the garage yet. But my turbo is hard on tracks if the snow isn’t set up and I hit dirt Maybe by the morning. It’s all blowing around not much in the stubble
Come on down anytime. If you want though
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Weather
Nov 9, 2020 10:20:02 GMT -6
Post by hardrockacres on Nov 9, 2020 10:20:02 GMT -6
Likely 12" ~16" here as of this morning. 4' bank up the side of my shop and a couple drifts in the yard that had my Raptor pushing 1/2 way up its grill. Needed 4wd just to get out of the garage to get the kid to school for her Departmental exam. Sleds aren't quite ready yet but that's ok as I have a good day of plowing to do to get the yard cleaned up. Picture is from last Feb.
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Weather
Nov 9, 2020 10:31:05 GMT -6
Post by Beerwiser on Nov 9, 2020 10:31:05 GMT -6
They shut the buses down for snow or is it a covid thing? When the kids were in school, they only ever shut down for cold. I don't remember being shut down for snow. Nice line up too. Makes my old indy look like my even older everest.
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