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Post by Oatking on Jul 1, 2021 12:12:07 GMT -6
Trying to get a grip of this canola market. Stats Can estimated higher acres than last year. I would rate my crop in the high 40s to 50 bushel mark with the recent rains and heat we have. Really tough to average 70 bushels here, as there is always some weather or disease problem. Canola Crops looks similar to last years 55 bushel mark . At this point my canola crop is pretty even in growth in the 25-30 percent bloom stage. We are lucky we missed the frost , beetles and wind damage earlier and now its nice the nights cool down after the 30 c heat in the Red River Valley. I got the plane for fungicides as I still had water in the ditches. Beans are made in august so a little too soon to estimate but they are flowering now and really dark green just like my favorite steel!
Finished spraying the beans for the second time and they are closing up the 15 inch rows and look pretty darn good. Again its weird to see mud on the sprayer tires but this year I love to see it. I have a quarter of oats that missed the last two rains 5 miles from farm and that one is looking in tough shape. Overall , Cereals are looking pretty good on the farm where the rain fell . Looking really forward to this harvest.
Pretty sure we will be cutting oats first week of august. Only fear now is if the clouds decide to open up in August and september.
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Post by meskie on Jul 1, 2021 13:12:06 GMT -6
Driving around and looking at canola crops I think the best fields will be lucky to make 40. Some rain and cooler temps could make more bushels but I haven’t seen a full field that looks good.
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Post by carlos on Jul 1, 2021 13:51:04 GMT -6
If my canola hits 40,I will do cartwheels! Last year only hit mid 30's and the way this heat is,I cant see it getting there. Good for the guys that are expecting 40 or 50+! You will do well on prices, cause there wont be supply like they are hoping for.
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Post by generalchaos on Jul 1, 2021 13:57:35 GMT -6
Its hard to say. I did custom canola swathing for over 20 years and you can cut two fields that look identical and have 10 bu/a difference. My fields have sections that are over 50% blooming and sections that the plants are 6” tall. I’m hoping for 40. A good yield for me would be 55.
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Post by SWMan on Jul 1, 2021 15:39:33 GMT -6
Too early to say, just finished weed spraying. We are definitely dry but with rain this crop could be fine. If it doesn't rain at all could be 20, lots of rain average. I don't see any route to a bumper crop because there are weak areas from the one big rain we had that came hard. Some early canola fields in the area beginning to flower and you could run across the fields and avoid stepping on any plants. I cannot remember a year when we had such a large number of poor stands and thin crops around here, everything will be below average.
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Post by Oatking on Jul 1, 2021 16:28:18 GMT -6
Your right about stressed canola swman. Went to Carman AND I was shocked to see canola petals turning orange and white just a few miles west of Rosenort. Some fields were so bad I do dont see more than five bushels an acre and what a pain it would be to harvest thin canola with a flex head. There is a pile of good farmers there with less than half a crop. When we sit at our desks and plan our crops we sure dont like to think of that result.
The wheat that was sprayed out has little to no germinated canola growing. It was interesting the next wheat field over from a sprayed out one looked like maybe 35 bushels an acre. The canola if it does come may never make it anyways.
Could we see 30 bucks a bushel?
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Post by SWMan on Jul 1, 2021 17:13:11 GMT -6
Yeah lots of good farmers having problems totally out of their control. Need rain to make grain. My personal opinion is maybe could have backed off a bit on tillage last fall when it was obviously dry, but that would have been a half-measure given current scenario.
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Post by jcalder on Jul 1, 2021 17:16:45 GMT -6
Our crop looks all right. Nothing to boast about but not a write off yet. Definitely need rain though. If we don't get any I bet we harvest very poor wheat in July.
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Post by victory on Jul 2, 2021 10:12:38 GMT -6
Wall to wall canola out here Oatking. Never seen better canola crops. Looks like they will run about 100 bu/ac, so I'm guessing probably about a 75bu/ac average. Weather here has been perfect. You better lock in as much as you dare before the price drops back to where it was last fall. Local crushers won't be able to process what we are going to produce.  Now for reality, lol. Crops are looking decent out here, and if we get more moisture soon, will probably be average crops. We are very thankful for what we have to this point. Hopefully this hot weather won't be too hard on the blooming canola. Most canola here about 35% bloom stage. |
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jaymo
Full Member
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Post by jaymo on Jul 3, 2021 6:53:13 GMT -6
I would rate things below average. Like SWMAN said, there's fields starting to bloom you could walk across and avoid stepping on a plant, to fields fully cabbaged with no bolting looking awesome.
We seeded 400 acres before our first rain of the year, a 2' downpour. It seemed to compact and crust the surface, giving the canola seedlings problems breaking through. then the flea beetles hit hard for a couple weeks.
Anything seeded a few days later looks like a pretty decent crop. IF......we get the timely rains going forward.
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Post by victory on Jul 6, 2021 9:59:46 GMT -6
Still no rain here. Crops are hanging in there from good ground moisture from earlier rains, but there has to be yield loss at this point. Not much rain in the forecast either, with more warm weather on the way. At least we had some cooler weather over the weekend. Highs of 20C and lows around 11 or 12C.
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Post by Oatking on Jul 6, 2021 12:59:08 GMT -6
ok, I give up predicting canola yields. North of domain everything is drying up . Canola is shutting down flowering after to dry weeks. Interlake is really dry except the odd field along highway 9 and fields around grosse ilse. Hay will be tough to find and not much for cereal straw out there either. Were hanging in there too victory around rosenort , but good yields are fading to average. Noticed some wheat seeded at the beginning of april is turning white from pre mature ripening. I have some oats headed out to my hips and some to my knees. Rains were all or nothing ! The white combine is needed big time for some guys.
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Post by victory on Jul 6, 2021 13:51:50 GMT -6
Not very nice when a guy hopes for the white combine instead of spending some time in the seat.  |
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Post by garyfunk on Jul 7, 2021 6:21:11 GMT -6
Long story short, it doesn't look good. It's about a foot tall and I'm thinking that I didn't pick enough rocks, ha.
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Post by Oatking on Jul 7, 2021 17:01:33 GMT -6
Found some interesting information regarding canola growth during drought times. Root growth can extend up to 72 inches deep during flowering period. It would be interesting to probe down that deep and see what we actually have down there and be able to measure moisture availability.
Two years ago Enns in Morris was telling me about a weather station they install in your field during the growing season and put a moisture probe down. I think the cost was about four grand to rent it for a year.
Anybody rent one of these john deere weather stations on their farm. I can see its advantages, but how do you get a return on investment with one these gizmos.
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