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Post by generalchaos on Oct 15, 2020 21:58:13 GMT -6
I booked December soys at $12.30/bu and 14% protein wheat for $7.00.
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Post by victory on Oct 16, 2020 13:42:11 GMT -6
Got an offer of $5.15/bu for barley this morning for immediate delivery. Little less than 2 hours away. But I don't have any left. 
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Post by SWMan on Oct 16, 2020 21:18:58 GMT -6
Well started canola sales today for 2020 at $11.25 picked up on farm later this month, needed to empty some hopper bins for fertilizer. Thinking about doing some wheat for $7 too just to get that started, all samples back 1 Red 14.5ish so that's good. Glad to see pea prices going up, have lots of them too. Feels like the local guys are foot-dragging on raising prices, so I will reward the first one who will probably. They seem to want to offer a good price for 5 months out, why would I sell 5 months out in a rising market unless there is a huge carry???
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Post by Oatking on Oct 17, 2020 8:13:51 GMT -6
ANY body hear of a 2021 sept new crop flax bid
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Post by torriem on Oct 17, 2020 11:37:11 GMT -6
You feel like CWRS HRS will go above $7 long term, SWMan ? I'm skeptical. To me $7 sounds like a good price, certainly profitable for me. That's much higher than the average price the last two years. I don't see anything happening that would support wheat going much higher than $7. We sold nearly all our HRS off the combine this year. A lot of guys in my area did as well. This is the first time in many years our wheat bins are mostly empty this time of year. Feels really good to me. Also sold all the red lentils as well. Could spend months catching theoretical gains, but good profit now is worth something I think. The downside is figuring out what income might need to be deferred to make things line up like they would in a normal marketing year for us. |
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Post by victory on Oct 17, 2020 11:54:54 GMT -6
What gets me torriem is that feed wheat is also trading for $7 in our area. I know that a lot of northern and central Alberta didn't have very good crops, but it is very frustrating growing HRS wheat only to get the same money selling it for feed!
Might as well grow whatever yields the most - who cares about grade. This is not the first time that feed price has been equal to what elevators are paying for HRS. 
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Post by kevlar on Oct 17, 2020 12:01:01 GMT -6
That's why we mainly grow feed grains, if you shop around, you can get very close prices for feed grains as you can for milling grains. Got more for feed oats the last few years than we could have gotten for milling oats. Also don't need to to deal with the dickage,screwage, and whatever else they can dream up to discount your grain.
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Post by torriem on Oct 17, 2020 12:10:48 GMT -6
Yeah we made some good money on our winter wheat selling into feed this year.
Yes you're correct. The wheat board was much maligned, but it did a good job of marketing one class of wheat to the world, and established a reputation for our HRS wheat based on quality, including the deep red visual quality. It makes less and less sense with the demise of the wheat board to grow high quality wheat. Even in the milling market, higher yielding, lower-quality wheat can make just as much money in the near future.
We've been growing Pasteur for quite a few years now. In the US it is marketed as a hard red spring wheat for milling (although it's usually only 12% protein). Locally we sell it into the feed market as if it were just a CPS variety. But with the new classifications in Canada, regular grain buyers will eventually start buying it.
In the end I don't care who buys the wheat if it's at a profitable price. I've sold quality HRS into the feed market before. Doesn't bother me any. At equivalent prices I'd far rather sell into the feed market. Usually price includes FOB the bin even. All the better.
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Post by SWMan on Oct 17, 2020 21:48:06 GMT -6
You feel like CWRS HRS will go above $7 long term, SWMan ? I'm skeptical. To me $7 sounds like a good price, certainly profitable for me. That's much higher than the average price the last two years. I don't see anything happening that would support wheat going much higher than $7. We sold nearly all our HRS off the combine this year. A lot of guys in my area did as well. This is the first time in many years our wheat bins are mostly empty this time of year. Feels really good to me. Also sold all the red lentils as well. Could spend months catching theoretical gains, but good profit now is worth something I think. The downside is figuring out what income might need to be deferred to make things line up like they would in a normal marketing year for us. Oh it definitely could, hearing stories like the one you just mentioned about guys selling everything already just adds to the bullishness. I'm not saying it will go higher(and it could actually go lower), but all the "experts" didn't predict we would be where we are right now near as I can tell. I remember guys selling all their canola in fall of 2007 when price hit $10, I started sales later that winter at $13 and finished around $17. I don't think I checked canola bins as much as that winter when the price was climbing steady. I also don't think I could stomach watching the price do that again with my bins full...ha ha To me the big downside risk is the political world trade aspect of things. I won't argue at all about someone taking profitable prices to eliminate that risk, especially if you need the sales near term for cash flow. |
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Post by torriem on Oct 17, 2020 22:53:33 GMT -6
Will be interesting to see. I'll be seriously surprised if wheat goes above $7 for any period of time. Hopefully you can catch the odd bump and make some good money. I just don't see anything in the market that supports that kind of bullishness. There's absolutely no shortage of wheat anywhere in the world, despite bad winter wheat conditions in the former soviet union countries. They'll still produce plenty of wheat. The only thing that could drive the price up is a lower Canadian dollar, which is definitely possible, and even likely after the US election.
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Post by SWMan on Oct 21, 2020 12:16:23 GMT -6
Well markets pushing higher every day, especially in the front months. Almost no carry in the market now which is saying to sell, but hard to go crazy with sales when the trend is seriously higher.
It would be interesting to know exactly where farmer sales are at, I bet China or the big players who have our data know.
Something is going on behind the scenes here...
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Post by meskie on Oct 21, 2020 12:23:46 GMT -6
China is buying a bunch of barley pushing feed prices up. Local bids are $5 for March. They are likely going to malt the “feed” barley.
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Post by cptusa on Oct 21, 2020 12:25:40 GMT -6
I'm selling cash beans when it hits my next tier target, no carry at all there.
Small carry in corn here about a dime to May at ADM Cedar Rapids. I'm going to bin all corn not contracted and hold. Yields suck here, carry over corn substantially depleted when bins got destroyed through the area, they're +.02 for May, this summer that number could easily be +.50 or better. Yeah they can truck it and rail it but price must justify it, and it's expensive to shut a plant down.
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Post by SWMan on Oct 21, 2020 23:01:52 GMT -6
A couple of Minneapolis wheat charts, weekly and a long view monthly chart. By my eye wee have made it through an area of resistance. Ah the glory days of 2008-2014 sure were fun to grow wheat!   |
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Post by SWMan on Oct 21, 2020 23:06:24 GMT -6
And a couple of oilseed charts, canola and soybeans. Note the volume below, heavy volume! Canola and soybeans do follow each other closely.   |
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