Outlook for grain prices?

Busy couple days for yellow pea sales according to Johnston's Daily. A lot of demand should be filled the last couple weeks. If price holds next week then we should be able to play the casino by thinking higher is more likely than lower.

A crap load of currency has been plowed into the system over the last 12 years so whatever dollar amount we have seen before needs to be adjusted for possibility that this will finally be reflected in grain prices. What was once considered to be high price years ago needs to be thought of as low for today's reality. So those price rallies on the charts SWMan posted need to be adjusted in your mind for devalued currency. Of course the effects created by wonders of buying/selling leveraged futures without any obligation to take delivery needs to be allowed for. Sometimes it allows for price to be driven down, other times guys are at the casino piloting the rocket ship.

To Meskies point on feed barley being used for beer. I often think that is possible. On the other hand, there is somewhere around 2c-3c of barley in a bottle of beer. Granted most of the price we pay for beer is taxes, but from a cost of production standpoint, the price of malt barley can go up a long way before adding 5% to the production cost of that bottle of beer. If we accept that malt barley varieties do have advantages over feed barley for beer production, then paying $7/bu for malt probably doesn't even impact the bottom line of a brewery. So if a brewer added 2c to their sale price per bottle to cover the "high price" of malt barley they would be adding profit.

Victory who has $7.30 for wheat? Seems like all the elevators are sub $6 here. I know the freight makes a difference but shouldn't be that big.

I bailed on my oilseeds, figured $11.83 for canola picked up and $12.50 for soybeans was good enough to get sales moved along. Sold a few yellow peas for $8.30 as well. All for November.

Maybe we see more, but honestly I'm nervous with the US election and what that might mean for things near term. Also Canadian dollar is moving higher, but perhaps that's just the US dollar going lower and why grain futures are going up.

Prices still going higher here.

Booked some yellow peas at local Richardson Pioneer for $8.47 JFM delivery. Now offering $8.80 for April May
Did some Metcalfe there also for $5.47 for JFM. Feed at $5.15

My best pricing that I can find right now is my local elevator.

I too wanted to get some grain booked before the election so sold on 40% peas, 25% malt. Still have half my flax and mustard to sell. I think I will sell some more flax shortly for quick cash.

160ac of my yellow mustard that I swathed is grading sample because of excreta. Not animal, looks to be grasshopper crap, and I barely saw a grasshopper this year. But I can see it for myself in my bin sample so need to deal with that somehow later.

Post some random stuff here.

One of my crazy speculations is we will see more of a narrative on "food security" as the grip is tightened on a population. So I do have a concern with escalating grain prices. A nice bump is good, however something that starts getting news headlines of record grain prices, shocking spike, etc, etc may be followed by food security concerns as the driver. Which will lead to demands for government intervention to solve these problems.

I saw these two articles on New Ag Talk this morning. I post here because my first thought is things don't just happen. Particularly when it comes to unions. There is a lot of money and control exercised in a union. Control means someone is calling the shots, and it is not the members even though they are told they are the union and therefore the union serves them. I see it as the opposite, the members serve the union leadership. So I interpret union activity and strikes at grain terminal in Argentina as something to note as potential for a bigger play.


gcaptain.com/argentine-grain-port-workers-strike-over-wages/

And I will post this one because it makes no sense to me. It could simply be the fault of the journalist.

www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/columns/cash-market-moves/article/2020/11/09/agriculture-container-shippers-left

A high demand for containers in Asia means shipping of full containers to Asia is halted. How does that make sense. Maybe they are saying containers aren't being filled to instead be shipped back empty. Doubtful.

Covid has resulted in a greater demand for food products. I didn't realize people eat more and less depending on whether they are allowed to move freely. I always thought food consumption could be calculated to within 0.1% day in and day out.

And there is a great demand for high value shipments from Asia thus need for containers. Yet the massive economic expansion of 12 years from dirt cheap interest rates has not seen peak shipping movement and container supply. Apparently the crippling of the world economy from covid, record debt, shutdown of manufacturing is now resulting in max container traffic.

I don't know. I can't follow a single point in this news about exports falling off in Canada.

Will leave it to yourself to interpret. I think grain prices have room to move higher. My concern is the grain won't move off my farm in the time frame contracted and that higher and higher grain prices may not be a good thing in the long run. "food security" being the buzz words.

We aren't even going to put out feed or slap the bull's ass anymore.  We're just going to strap a rocket ship to him and light the turbos.  Hold on little baby Jesus we're in for a wild ride.

Razor thin carryout on beans and exports up on corn according to WASDE has corn +.18 and beans +.40.  This still has Iowa corn yield at 186 BPA which is not possible. My gut feeling is USDA has been way wrong and over stated supply for several years to avoid a 2012 run away market, drought combined with derecho has taken an otherwise enormous crop and turned it into one of the worst in 20-25 years making it impossible to ignore.

IF Biden keeps the win watch money flow from the stock's to commodities again and boom, there we are.

Disclaimer: Previous disclaimer still applies. Even though I'm right.

Is there more value in milling wheat then corn? What are the feed mills paying for corn vs wheat.