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Post by kenmb on Oct 10, 2020 9:27:57 GMT -6
It's as solid as any other crap you hear from the experts Captain. I have been waiting a long time for the free markets/price discovery /supply and demand factors to figure out an obscene amount of fiat dollars have been dumped into the system and commodity buyers should finally figure it out. They may be many years behind but, eventually all those new dollars should start chasing commodities. Of course that will be bad and the government will need to step in because poor people are suffering. Inflation is a tax on the poor after all. So the last thing government will figure out for some reason (or a programmed drone) is that the the very thing that is inflation is the cause. Feed barely is hitting price levels of malt barley right now. I heard the lockdown actually drove up alcohol sales. Even with sporting events, concerts, restaurants, etc all impacted. I wonder if that is true and if malt buyers just don't need barley anymore. www.statista.com/statistics/461798/monthly-retail-sales-of-beer-wine-and-liquor-stores-canada/ |
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Post by victory on Oct 10, 2020 10:24:20 GMT -6
I have been hearing that feedlots will start feeding corn soon, just like they have other years when the price of barley gets too high.
What is the availability of corn within reasonable distance from the Alberta border? Or is covid going to prevent corn from crossing the border?
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Post by SWMan on Oct 10, 2020 22:24:24 GMT -6
I have been hearing that feedlots will start feeding corn soon, just like they have other years when the price of barley gets too high.
What is the availability of corn within reasonable distance from the Alberta border? Or is covid going to prevent corn from crossing the border? Corn is flowing from the states to the local feed mill here no problem. However there was a lot of prevent plant in ND and generally a dry year in MB reduced the size of the corn crop from what I hear. The buyers I know that use a lot of corn are a bit concerned about supply here, feed wheat taking the place of corn somewhat because of that. Could be a little bit of a domino effect here if one grain goes up the switching drives others along with it. I wonder if we have seen enough of a run up to flush the weak longs out and satisfy cash-flow needs yet? Because if selling dries up it could really take off. |
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Post by cptusa on Oct 11, 2020 7:44:13 GMT -6
They're up to 850k acres of corn in Iowa that won't be harvested. Corn that is getting picked is pretty disappointing. I haven't done any but sounds like 200 bpa is pretty hard to come by, a lot of 150-160 bpa.
Beans all over the board 35-80 bpa.
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Post by slipclutch on Oct 11, 2020 8:47:56 GMT -6
If corn go’s to 7$ and barley is at 6$ I would think they would feed 6$ barley.  What do you guys think. |
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Post by slipclutch on Oct 11, 2020 8:50:01 GMT -6
I have no idea how come there’s a sad face in my post. 🤷♂️ Lol
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Post by meskie on Oct 11, 2020 10:09:24 GMT -6
If corn go’s to 7$ and barley is at 6$ I would think they would feed 6$ barley. What do you guys think. It would be close. I was told what the spread had to be to make one better then the other but can’t remember. It also depends on if they want to change ration or are setup to process corn. |
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Post by kevlar on Oct 11, 2020 14:00:00 GMT -6
I think it takes a fairly good spread in prices. We haul all our barley to hog barns and they almost never switch to corn, it's not as simple as just switching bins, it takes some commitment, they can't just switch back and forth. The hogs take time to adjust to the new feed and will sometimes go off feed for awhile, and the rate of gain slows for a bit as they adjust. Also it seems a bit more difficult to source large amounts of quality corn it sounds like, more prone to mold I think. Other livestock is maybe different, I don't really know. Haven't been getting any calls yet from anyone looking for barley yet so the price can't be getting too far out of reach yet, generally they call wanting to buy it all as soon as it looks the price is going to go up.
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Post by shmiffy on Oct 11, 2020 15:46:25 GMT -6
What’s the deal with Statscan going back to 2017 crop year to fudge the supply number. They should know every year within a small margin of error the crop size.
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Post by garyfunk on Oct 11, 2020 18:22:36 GMT -6
Guaranteed that the prices are going ^^^.
How do I know? We're about 70% priced, ha.🤔
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Post by cptusa on Oct 11, 2020 18:37:01 GMT -6
Ripped out a field of corn today, first one, pretty bad. 65 bpa, no I did not forget a digit.
That's about 170 bpa short of what that field should've done.
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Post by SWMan on Oct 11, 2020 20:13:52 GMT -6
What’s the deal with Statscan going back to 2017 crop year to fudge the supply number. They should know every year within a small margin of error the crop size. It's called creative accounting, only necessary to justify other made up numbers. Sooner or later we get a short crop and things take off. |
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Post by shmiffy on Oct 12, 2020 1:03:13 GMT -6
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Post by slipclutch on Oct 12, 2020 6:27:14 GMT -6
Boy. I don’t know how to take that? If China dose not have the money to buy ag products is the market still going to rise? Or it’s it going to go flat on its face? Commodity price By spring half the money what it is today??
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Post by kenmb on Oct 15, 2020 21:10:07 GMT -6
Still going up. Yellow peas $8 to $8.25 fob farm. The $8.25 was said by a Rayglen broker today for around March movement if I wanted to book. Feed barley hitting $4.60 - $4.75 around here (North of Regina) and local Richardson elevator is $5.25 Metcalfe for J-F-M movement. Flax up a bit more.
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What do you guys think. 
