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Post by kevlar on Sept 7, 2021 22:03:45 GMT -6
I have some HRSW combined and got some results back from elevator. Last time HRSW was on this farm was when I was a teenager so I have not been invested in following all the pricing schemes for wheat.
What is the general feeling for better quality wheat? Elevator is calling mine #2 with 15.7% protein, 62 lbs/bu, 13.7% moisture.
Right now not much spread in prices at elevator, #1 is $10.23, feed is $9.02 and mine lands in around $10.00. Thinking there is room for a spread to open up but that may come in the form of feed dropping a bit and higher quality wheat holding steady. Not in a hurry to sell, but might take a little to elevator to make some room and get a little cash flow. $10 isn't bad. Yield is 40 bu/ac on the 30% of the crop I got off so certainly paying bills at $10.
Here's my thoughts. Right now it's feed grains driving the prices. Shop around to some feed mills or if you have any hog barns in the province, call them, they are desperate for feed wheat. Use your high protein to your advantage, for a barn grain with high protein means they have to use less soy meal or other high protein additive. Never sell feed grain to an elevator. Never sell feed grain to someone who takes dockage off feed grain. I bet a few phone calls you could get $10 picked up in your yard, with no dockage or screwage.
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Post by SWMan on Sept 7, 2021 23:36:06 GMT -6
I don't think quality will be a big driver of prices this year, although an elevator will gladly give you the shaft if you let them. If you have bushels to sell then it will be in demand at some point, a little bit of patience will probably be all that's required to capitalize.
I took a barley sample to the elevator and mentioned I wasn't sure if it would be malt or not, to which they replied that there wasn't much not making malt this year. Made me wonder if there wasn't much around. Could be some funny tasting beer later in the year...
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Post by kenmb on Sept 9, 2021 7:25:39 GMT -6
Well i took your advice Kevlar and found a different way to manage some bin space. Can get $10.25 picked up for feed wheat in October movement. Haven't booked it yet but think I will move some that way.
Feed barley is looking around $7.50 for Sept October, Johnston's got me a bid for $8.75 for spring movement so going to move some that way. Need to get a few more samples off for my other barley to see how close it is to making malt. Local Richardson is at $9.31 for malt Sept-Dec, they have typically been my best avenue for moving malt.
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Post by SWMan on Sept 9, 2021 8:15:01 GMT -6
Was quoted $8.75 for feed barley yesterday, pretty sure that was nearby but about 1.5 hours east of me. I wouldn't reach to spring Ken to get a good price now.
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Post by kenmb on Sept 9, 2021 9:00:32 GMT -6
I found out all my barley will be feed so wouldn't mind selling a little more now. Will keep looking. Best I am seeing is $7.30-$7.40 for fall. Location/transport costs come into play but 50 cents a bu can usually go a fair ways.
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Post by garyfunk on Sept 15, 2021 20:35:43 GMT -6
Oat futures are going nuts, but in a good way, ha.
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Post by kevlar on Sept 15, 2021 20:42:55 GMT -6
Ya they're crazy! Just finished combining oats a couple days ago, had considered seeing if we could just haul right in off the combine because or only other option was to pile them. Glad we piled them! Today's local price was 6.51 for October, but guessing could likely haul right away as there is virtually no grain being hauled, think the pig guys bought up every bushel of wheat and barley in the area. See they are jumping again tonight, maybe me joking to a guy about 7 dollar oats might not be so far fetched.
Might need to hire a security guard to watch the pile for us! We had thought about putting an electric fence around it to keep stray cows and deer out, but figured someone would steal it, or the battery. Piled bales around it, then thought after, someone might even steal those on a year like this! lol
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Post by SWMan on Sept 15, 2021 21:58:50 GMT -6
Saying is that "oats knows"...or at least it used to be.
Made first sale of marketing year today, few loads of canola at $20! Needless to say I'm driving a little slower and dropping a few more pans this year than normal.
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Post by garyfunk on Sept 16, 2021 6:09:08 GMT -6
Yes, oats knows. But once the peak hits she's a free fall.
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Post by SWMan on Sept 16, 2021 12:21:10 GMT -6
Nice chart, it would be interesting to overlay some other commodities on there. Where did you generate that? Seems the one I use won't go back that far.
Got offered $9 for feed barley today so it's creeping into malt price levels now, I wonder how much barley is actually around?
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Post by garyfunk on Sept 16, 2021 15:15:17 GMT -6
Got it off of barchart.
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Post by kenmb on Sept 18, 2021 9:29:17 GMT -6
I would sure like to get $9 feed barley. My only question would be to sell 50% of what I have left or commit 100%. I am hoping to get to $8.25. Not having any luck finding anything better than what brokers post. Called a few places and given up on that. I follow dad's way of thinking and shoot for malt. Most years we get it and so the disadvantage of distance from feed market is less of an issue. As long as buyers of malt don't play games.
Also no luck finding someone to pay a higher price for feed wheat that is high in protein. Weight and moisture were the two requirements I found, that was it. I have to send my #2 wheat sample out for testing as my local elevator said they quit testing for falling number since all samples they received early in the season said low falling number. Now, in a year like this perhaps one buyers "low" will be different than another. And I wonder how grain was ever marketed or used for food without a falling number being known. My guess is a falling number matters when there is lots of supply and matters less when supply is low.
No doubt I am not finding the right feed buyer, but this is some of what i see to confirm the phone calls.
pound-maker.ca/pages/sell-grainwww.grain-prices.olymel.ca/
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Post by kenmb on Sept 20, 2021 11:28:20 GMT -6
Feed mill 30 miles away has bids for brown flax delivered for $35.20 right now and $39/bu for Jan/Fed so took the second option. Nice thing about them is they don't take unthreshed bolls as dockage since they process them into the feed so that is typically worth 4-5% less dockage for me. Have a little more to sell, don't think I need to try and hit a market top at these bids so might sign the rest up right away.
Things are looking dicey this morning in regards to pretty much everything. Gold is holding up, other precious metals not so well. Another period where watching the next few days unfold to see if they pull the plug. Naturally there is always some black swan event in the wings and right now it's this talk about Evergrande. And if not this time, there will always be another black swan. Just a matter of which one that they use to say "who could have seen this coming".
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Post by kevlar on Sept 22, 2021 22:04:59 GMT -6
Got a target for $6.75 picked up this morning for some oats, priced some at 6.62. Try a target for $7.00??
Ken, if you can bypass the brokers, you will be ahead of the game, they take their share plus the trucking. There has to be some hog barns near you? Try getting their number and calling direct, even try some in Manitoba, I know they will travel almost anywhere this year for feed.
We sold all our barley for 8 picked up back when it was just under 7, so still quite happy. Selling to a guy we have dealt with for probably close to 20 years now, he's been good to us on low price years, so we don't feel we need to squeeze every penny out on a year like this, what goes around comes around. A guy could probably get 9 somewhere, but I'm more comfortable knowing we will get paid for sure for the $8, better than not getting paid $9 because of a rubber cheque.
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Post by kenmb on Sept 23, 2021 7:08:50 GMT -6
I don't know Kevlar, I don't seem to be doing well finding the feed opportunities. I am posting here not because I think I am doing well, but rather to say this is what I am seeing and thinking. Being right or wrong does not factor in. Feed barley is not something we have a lot of experience with. And if the malt contract goes feed, it still goes to the elevator and is price adjusted. It seems feed barley is a regional thing and a lot of farmers are just like your example. Guys have a feed demand near by, develop a relationship and so feed barley is grown. It seems to me if a buyer is short on feed, they end up contacting a broker anyway. Selling flax is a good example, I am selling direct to the mill which is basically the same price I see the brokers quoting.
All grain is in the bins and no need to jockey stuff around so probably just sit on things for a month or so before doing anything else. Flax is pretty darn high and have 25% of crop left to sell so think I will wait a bit longer. Still undecided. $40 flax is good by my books. If it hits $45 or $50 I still wouldn't have any remorse for selling at $40.
I do see a lot of trucks hauling grain to local elevator though. Maybe it's just me noticing. Maybe it's because the elevator added 2 more steel bin/annex type of units and they bought a lot via contract, or a lot of guys contracted grain more than usual this year and are hauling to fill. Don't know. But there is a possibility that when the hauling slows down, it will really slow down because not much grain is left to come in off farms.
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