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Post by kenmb on Aug 21, 2021 7:57:18 GMT -6
Got a text from local Richardson elevator - $20 durum For me,anything that grosses over $300/ac is a high value crop. When dad grew durum decades ago it was 30-35 BPA. The math right now for gross revenue is crazy. I don't know where prices will go.
The thing that sticks in my mind right now is possibly "someone" buying up all the grain and then trickling it out later on. And of course such a thing would drive the news of "food security" issues (always, always pay attention to new buzz words and phrases being introduced into your world) and need for government intervention.
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Post by garyfunk on Aug 21, 2021 8:05:36 GMT -6
Sent a few super bs of green peas no one wanted all winter down the road this week for $15.
I like hearing of good crops/growing conditions out there. Up until 15 years ago my farm was mainly cattle and cattle guys love prosperity in the world; ie good crops and wealthy people lowers production costs and increases beef demand.
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Post by SWMan on Aug 21, 2021 11:23:47 GMT -6
I wonder where the breaking point is? Nice to see these prices, but a part of me is also thinking all it will take is something to rattle things up somewhere in the world, likely not even ag related, and prices could plummet. Hyperinflation is a scary beast. Yeah I do agree there is a lot of geo-political risk right now that could put all world markets into a tailspin or make commodities even more valuable. Not unwise to sell into a rising market, I did this myself last winter(although at a pace I now regret). I think your comment about hyperinflation is worth noting, and trying to match crop sales to input purchases would be a good plan. Don't want to sell all your grain today(or six months ago) at a price that seemed good and then next spring find out all your inputs are 2X the price of normal! I'm a little concerned that the one guy who voted bullish on the poll thinks the market might be getting tired though... O_o
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Post by cptusa on Aug 21, 2021 11:32:41 GMT -6
Old crop I think is tuckered out, new crop starting to trickle in. I am bullish new crop. Just to clarify. Rock and roll.
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Post by SWMan on Aug 21, 2021 11:44:57 GMT -6
Old crop I think is tuckered out, new crop starting to trickle in. I am bullish new crop. Just to clarify. Rock and roll. Ah good to hear. I just about have last years crop sold now and have not sold a bushel of 2021 production yet, so I guess we are on same page....right or wrong.
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Post by cptusa on Aug 21, 2021 16:42:38 GMT -6
Old crop I think is tuckered out, new crop starting to trickle in. I am bullish new crop. Just to clarify. Rock and roll. Ah good to hear. I just about have last years crop sold now and have not sold a bushel of 2021 production yet, so I guess we are on same page....right or wrong. Well two of us can't be wrong! Spot priced the last 15000 bushel of corn last week for 2020 crop. 2021 crop is 100% unpriced. I think we're going to have some good opportunities in the next year, be ready.
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Post by carlos on Sept 3, 2021 9:20:35 GMT -6
Anybody ever hear of downgrading lentils because of too many cracks? Took in a sample, they say #2, haul in 1st load, all of a sudden xtra 3! Call my gal,ask why. She said because of how dry it is, there are more cracked seeds. I said before they always wanted 13.5 moisture or lower because they split easier, now we get penalized! I have a feeling grain companies will use every excuse in the book this year!
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Post by cptusa on Sept 3, 2021 11:34:18 GMT -6
They'll get you on soybean splits here. Pretty stupid at a crush plant.
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Post by carlos on Sept 3, 2021 12:45:33 GMT -6
I will admit, there are more cracked and peeled than normal, my beef is why didnt they tell me that when they looked at my sample. Then I know what I am pricing. There was a 7 cent per pound difference!
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Post by SWMan on Sept 3, 2021 16:17:38 GMT -6
Heard $35-$38 for flax recently and seed peas are gonna be pushing $25 for next year as I talked to someone who got $22 for his pedigreed production.
There is a scramble on to secure special crops, all bets off on what happens going forward. Well I have a bet I suppose because I haven't sold yet...ha ha
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Post by kenmb on Sept 4, 2021 8:05:51 GMT -6
I was wondering what to do with brown flax also
Johnston's Grain printed $33 yesterday. The only thing I contracted this year was brown flax for 10 bu/ac at $17. So pretty tempting to book some more at $33. On the other hand, would be a heck of a pinch to not deliver for some reason. Might just play it safe and wait it out and not sell till its in the bin. The bushels are there in the field, no doubt about that.
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Post by shmiffy on Sept 4, 2021 21:54:12 GMT -6
Anybody ever hear of downgrading lentils because of too many cracks? Took in a sample, they say #2, haul in 1st load, all of a sudden xtra 3! Call my gal,ask why. She said because of how dry it is, there are more cracked seeds. I said before they always wanted 13.5 moisture or lower because they split easier, now we get penalized! I have a feeling grain companies will use every excuse in the book this year! Did they probe your truck or take a sample from unload. Probes sucking lentils from 300 feet crack lentils.
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Post by carlos on Sept 5, 2021 7:48:24 GMT -6
Yes, they did, but after I complained my rep said to ask for hand sample. Lo and behold, all was good after that!!
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Post by kenmb on Sept 7, 2021 19:21:26 GMT -6
I have some HRSW combined and got some results back from elevator. Last time HRSW was on this farm was when I was a teenager so I have not been invested in following all the pricing schemes for wheat.
What is the general feeling for better quality wheat? Elevator is calling mine #2 with 15.7% protein, 62 lbs/bu, 13.7% moisture.
Right now not much spread in prices at elevator, #1 is $10.23, feed is $9.02 and mine lands in around $10.00. Thinking there is room for a spread to open up but that may come in the form of feed dropping a bit and higher quality wheat holding steady. Not in a hurry to sell, but might take a little to elevator to make some room and get a little cash flow. $10 isn't bad. Yield is 40 bu/ac on the 30% of the crop I got off so certainly paying bills at $10.
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Post by generalchaos on Sept 7, 2021 21:06:04 GMT -6
I have some HRSW combined and got some results back from elevator. Last time HRSW was on this farm was when I was a teenager so I have not been invested in following all the pricing schemes for wheat.
What is the general feeling for better quality wheat? Elevator is calling mine #2 with 15.7% protein, 62 lbs/bu, 13.7% moisture.
Right now not much spread in prices at elevator, #1 is $10.23, feed is $9.02 and mine lands in around $10.00. Thinking there is room for a spread to open up but that may come in the form of feed dropping a bit and higher quality wheat holding steady. Not in a hurry to sell, but might take a little to elevator to make some room and get a little cash flow. $10 isn't bad. Yield is 40 bu/ac on the 30% of the crop I got off so certainly paying bills at $10.
You might get #1 in January.
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