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Post by carlos on Sept 23, 2021 8:33:52 GMT -6
Missed the 22 dollar durum a while back. Down to 15-17 dollar range now. Should target 20 and see what happens. It's funny I got different grades for same sample. #1 to a #3. Ken, did I read right that a feed mill is buying flax?
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Post by kenmb on Sept 24, 2021 7:02:12 GMT -6
Yes, o&t farms/oleet processing North of Regina uses flax for a feed product they produce. It's interesting that someone on the planet figured out unthreshed flax bolls have flax in them and therefore not dockage if you can process them in some fashion. I can get the combine to thresh pretty good but it does change my mindset a bit on how I pursue combine settings through the day knowing where the flax is going.
Also Tom at Manitou Holdings @ Young, Sk is looking for yellow mustard. That is certainly a sellers market where a guy can likely negotiate a price independent of what brokers are showing. I didn't grow any this year, next year it is back in the rotation.
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Post by carlos on Sept 24, 2021 21:28:16 GMT -6
Thanks for the info Ken. Just wrapped up 2021 harvest couple hours ago. Flax hit a whopping 13 bushels per acre. First time I chopped the straw other than headlands, there was hardly anything left after going through the combines.
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Post by kenmb on Sept 25, 2021 8:48:36 GMT -6
Mine ran pretty much 20 BPA. Will update my ramblings on flax that i did this summer in the random pictures thread one of these days. I did both straight cut and swathed and once again put it through the chopper with no problems. Was straight cutting grass green stemmed flax and actually found that better to thresh than the really dry stuff. The really dry stuff disappeared going through the chopper where as green straw was more tufts, but nothing that will pose an issue in spring.
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Post by kenmb on Nov 1, 2021 10:04:38 GMT -6
Saskatchewan crop insurance deadline is Nov 15 to report yields. Is that the same elsewhere? I assume so but a quick question is always better than assuming.
I have had two calls so far from SCIC asking to report my production. Talked to them the 2nd call and said I am in no hurry, I know when the deadline is.
Markets are certainly strong right now. If I understand the US system, the insured crop price for the year includes October but not November so there would be a desire to keep prices down in October, less so in November. I don't recall if Saskatchewan has any top up after the prices are established in spring, or top up if you contracted grain and set the price that way.
Anyway, the best way to know how much grain came off the prairies is to wait for production declarations to be submitted and tallied. Yes, I know, all information submitted to crop insurance is used solely by crop insurance and no 3rd party has access because it is all confidential and yadda yadda. But if I wanted to know the real numbers I would not bother talking with elevators or grain buyers or farmers, I would just access the crop insurance data bases.
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Post by Oatking on Dec 8, 2021 18:26:02 GMT -6
Hey guys , how many of your are interested into selling new crop grain for 2023? I was looking at new crop oat prices for 2023. I should have one for tomorrow. What will be a price on oats if production is normal in 2023? Is the general feeling to just leave it till we get closer to fall of 2022. Is the looming conflict with china a worry?
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Post by cptusa on Dec 8, 2021 22:37:01 GMT -6
I'm still on the 21 crop. I wouldn't be overly excited about pricing 22, 23 is a strong no for me.
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Post by kevlar on Dec 9, 2021 15:15:26 GMT -6
I think that's getting pretty far ahead to be pricing much. God knows what can happen by then. The way stuff is inflating, $20 canola in 2023 might be the equivalent to $5 canola today, by then it might be up to $40 a bushel but buy even less than today's prices would. Just look what would have happened if you had locked stuff in in 2019 for 2021, $10 would have looked good at the time but you would have lost your shirt on it. I know this hasn't been normal but who's to say it won't get even stranger? Going to put 8 tires on the one tractor with tripples, they should likely be good for another year or two, but with things the way they are, I don't want to risk it next year, price isn't as bad as thought it might be, but was told heavy truck tires are going up 12% January first, so likely most things will follow suit. He has had some tires on order for 12 weeks and still hasn't got them. 12 weeks would pretty much take of seeding time.
What does a contract look like for pricing that far ahead? I would imagine there are a lot of ways out for the buyer, you, not so much?
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Post by Oatking on Dec 9, 2021 19:56:42 GMT -6
Yeah, The companies say almost zero trades that far a head. I suggest a call if things will go skyward. Do you think most commoners working 8-5 will double there salary in 2023? Just wondering if this is another 2007-2008 market ! but i see your point kevlar.
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Post by kenmb on Dec 9, 2021 21:55:01 GMT -6
With the crap show going on I am staying away from obligations. I still have grain unsold but I feel better with bushels in the bin vs $$ in the bank. Work with what is real and tangible. Contracts and obligations are not something I want to tie myself down with regardless if a profit looks likely. The farmer is rarely in the driver seat when a contract is signed. Simple is better in times like these.
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Post by kenmb on Dec 23, 2021 9:08:10 GMT -6
What a farce www.zerohedge.com/commodities/us-sends-fleet-lng-ships-fuel-starved-europeSomething, something, something free markets, supply/demand, capitalism blah, blah, blah I say controlled. Once again, having comment sections adds great value as a few posters did the math and figured 10 ships equals around 5 minutes of gas supply vs what is normally sourced from Gazprom on a yearly basis. That 5 minutes of gas is enough to drop US futures 6.5% this morning and Europe down 18% referenced in article. Let me guess, tge smart money with a few $B to throw around to move markets don't have the collective intelligence to figure out what 5 minutes supply means. Or is it the dumb money (peasants at their kitchen table doing daytime trading) who collectively don't do math but have the funds to move markets. And meanwhile, FJB released strategic oil reserves to boost US supply by two days while the US exports natural gas. Hmm, release energy to export energy and that supposedly lowers your energy cost. No, I have no insight on where this goes. All I can say is if you have things nailed down yourself on where things go I will say you dont. You are flipping a coin. Buy now because price will be higher in spring, or wait because price will be lower. The only people who really know are those who can move markets 10% by releasing "news" of a 5 minute supply boost.
And the ultimate question regarding how our information is sourced: how accurate are the "facts" regarding these ships. Wouldn't this have all been contracted and scheduled months ago and part of the normal flow. Meaning net change in NG supply to Europe is actually zero. Yet changes market 18%.
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Post by kevlar on Dec 23, 2021 9:29:32 GMT -6
If this sells at this price, the price of grain and fertilizer will never come back down!
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Post by OptimallyDismal on Dec 23, 2021 11:00:46 GMT -6
I saw that too! Looks in good shape, I think they were about $2700 new?
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Post by cptusa on Jan 27, 2022 10:19:40 GMT -6
Kind of resurrecting this thread a bit to throw out random thoughts/observations and get your guy's thoughts as well.
2021 crop: I see upside potential pretty good for corn and soybeans. Smaller carry out and struggling South American crop.
2022 crop: I see a lot of potential here especially in corn. High inputs I think will shave acres. Downside on soybeans extremely limited. We will have a good price direction by July, excessive dryness continues with short sub soil moisture in a large chunk of the corn belt.
2023 crop: Here's where my thoughts get my attention. Seed corn production companies are poking around the neighborhood, an area they abandoned in 2016. For them to eat crow and come back inquiring about growing means they are thinking substantial increase in corn acres for 2023. For that to occur corn has to be pretty spicey in 2022.
I think the 2023 crop will also be able to be highly profitable with dwindling returns after that.
Random thoughts for the day.
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Post by SWMan on Jan 30, 2022 22:00:36 GMT -6
Kind of resurrecting this thread a bit to throw out random thoughts/observations and get your guy's thoughts as well. You were the only guy to predict higher prices ahead, doubt you want our advice...ha ha It will be interesting to see what the effect of the supply chain disruptions is on grain production and movement. Also the volcanic eruption in southern hemisphere might affect things? Also if war breaks out could change dynamics. So many variables, doubt we head for any production records because of those things, as such prices should stay high. No forward selling planned here.
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