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Post by totaledmygn on Jan 20, 2022 13:38:09 GMT -6
Has anyone gotten quotes on fertilizer prices in the last week or so? Urea Fob United States gulf has dropped a lot since its peak and I am curious if retail price has dropped yet for anyone. thanks
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Post by SWMan on Jan 20, 2022 13:43:33 GMT -6
I'd be shocked if it drops at a retail level for awhile, many guys prepaid for spring at some very high prices. There would be some really uncomfortable conversations if it dropped a lot.
It may be cheap at NOLA but is any amount actually making it up the river?
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Post by kevlar on Jan 20, 2022 14:03:37 GMT -6
It’s going to drop way down and I’ll look like a genius!! lol
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Post by SWMan on Jan 20, 2022 15:05:22 GMT -6
Fertilizer sales guy just came in yard actually, said urea went down $60/tonne in last week. So that's a start!
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Post by generalchaos on Jan 20, 2022 15:58:41 GMT -6
I got a notification a week ago that Urea was $1100/MT and MAP was $1250/MT. Delivered to yard for Feb/Mar.
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Post by cptusa on Jan 20, 2022 16:55:20 GMT -6
I don't see fertilizer dropping anytime soon when crop prices are high. I also don't see a lot of downside potential for grains.
Personally I think were going to get a run in grains here again, be ready to pull the trigger.
That said your foolish not to price at these levels currently.
Take the advice for what you paid for it.
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Post by OptimallyDismal on Jan 20, 2022 18:28:14 GMT -6
I got a text that Parrish & Heimbecker at Gladstone has a fertilizer sale on, didn't look into it, thinking the longer I wait the more I'll save.😣
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Post by Oatking on Jan 20, 2022 18:40:21 GMT -6
CPt, have any farmers you have spoken to sold corn into new crop 23. Wish price levels would stay like this but nothing is a guarantee. I remember one of the guys I rented land from said in the early 70's he paid his farm off with one flax crop. Crazy to think if I can pull off 180 in oats I should be able to do the same this year. Oops better not guess yield !! That was a one year high for him and than it was back to the grind. Point is make hay when the sun shines! I am pushing hard to make sales on the new crop 23.
Actually Kevin Hursh had some good crop return articles recently in the Western producer. I like his no none sense approach to agriculture . I Met him in person and he is a good guy to talk to.
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Post by shmiffy on Jan 20, 2022 20:53:44 GMT -6
Just hope you don’t get too much rain. Even years seem to be wetter since 2010
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Post by Oatking on Feb 6, 2022 9:02:22 GMT -6
Kevlar mentioned fertilizer dropping a bit. I Will check tomorrow what my retailer is posting. If they booked the product earlier, I would guess they would not drop the price. Markets might be calm for two weeks , after that who knows? I heard some guys pulling out of wheat acres for soybean acres. With 16.5 per bushel beans it is an attractive move if you can get the rains! I wonder if soybeans at $20 Cdn a bushel is possible?
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Post by slipclutch on Feb 6, 2022 21:58:51 GMT -6
No crop in South America and North America. This year. I would say 30$ canola 20$ soys 20$ wheat 12$ Corn. Things will get stupid fast!
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Post by SWMan on Feb 7, 2022 0:01:51 GMT -6
One of my suppliers mentioned last week that prices went down a bit but are now starting to drift higher. Even when it had gone lower freight is in such a mess there is extra costs associated with getting it here that offset a bunch of the movement. Some retails are being very cautious not wanting to end up with over-priced fertilizer and working hand-to-mouth. This is not a healthy supply chain condusive to good deals and getting product on short notice if you should happen to need it.
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Post by Oatking on Feb 7, 2022 9:33:09 GMT -6
I agree , with the hand to mouth movement of product. I may have to top up with liquid 28-0-0 if it comes to worst case scenario. Will see. In some ways a sudden opening of restrictions throughout the world might be a bad thing since it might over load the fragile shipping system. If its bad now imagine xxxxx1000 times more shipping demand. If it is taking 6-8 months to get my freaking 5 inch mini ape bars for my super chief , I have my doubts with some farm parts getting to the farm on time.!  |
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Post by kenmb on Feb 8, 2022 12:18:34 GMT -6
Well, when you live in this farce of a world with "real" people making "real" statements on "real" solutions then who knows what fertilizer prices will do. If LNG is a major component of nitrogen fertilizer then good old Joe will make sure there is zero LNG available for fertilizer. I do suspect that Joe might run into transport issues to supply Europe all the gas it needs. So we watch the markets to respond accordingly. www.rt.com/russia/548670-biden-promised-gas-supply/ |
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Post by Oatking on Feb 8, 2022 19:08:55 GMT -6
Hey big talk , My friend was saying Australia does not use natural gas to produce NH3. He said they use wind and solar power to generate the power to produce nh3. Is this true and what is the farmer cost of nh3? The last chunk of nh3 was bought around 2100 bucks a ton. If it costs more with green energy , I hope Biden does not change to that method on this side of the world. You would think solar and wind would be cheaper to produce the product.
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