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Post by SWMan on Jul 17, 2021 11:59:44 GMT -6
Anyone check around? Bought a few loads of urea the other day for $650/tonne which is basically twice last years summer price! Normally fill in summer but might spread out purchases in case it comes down. Some say it will go higher yet!
Also quoted $485/tonne for Tiger 90 sulfur. Didn't ask about phosphate but gather it is still at spring pricing, roughly twice last year as well.
Could be some residual N with the dry weather, there was last year.
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Post by megrizzly on Jul 17, 2021 16:48:20 GMT -6
Hate to say it, but these higher fert prices will stick around for a while and I don't see them dropping until next summer. Between tariffs, production cuts, supply, and high grain prices, there isn't any need to drop them.
$650 is a good price currently for urea as the stuff here is around the $700 mark. Phosphate is just a hair under the $1000.
I usually look at DTN's weekly retail fertilizer trends for a general guide to changes in fertilizer pricing.
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Post by kenmb on Jul 18, 2021 8:41:58 GMT -6
I am going to guess we are going to have a long cold winter, more so than what we have recently known. This will create news about natural gas demand, lack of supply, maybe some rationing which will drive nat gas way up. And of course nitrogen fertilizer prices.
I might try and find a way to invest in natural gas this fall. I have never done it/looked into it but may be a good way to offset what I think will be high urea costs for next year. Take some profit from the investment side and put it towards fertilizer costs. Probably something for a separate thread.
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jaymo
Full Member
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Post by jaymo on Jul 18, 2021 10:18:21 GMT -6
I've had one price of $412/t.  for 28-0-0. That's about .67/lb  compared to the .36/lb I paid last summer. |
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Post by SWMan on Jul 18, 2021 10:23:16 GMT -6
Yeah you guys may well be right about it not going down anytime soon.
I don't think there has been a lot of movement on the summer fill though, and I bought one day and the trucks showed up the very next day so they were eager to move it...
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Post by Oatking on Jul 18, 2021 12:01:20 GMT -6
soil testing values will be interesting this fall. I know commodity prices are thru the roof but on the other hand , this current drought will either force some guys to cut back next year because no money from no crop or increase many farmers operating loans to get in the game again buying fert and other inputs for the 2022 crop. I would be surprised if any federal relief in the form of direct payments are coming from the feds but you never know ,if trudeau calls an election during a crap y harvest would he want to buy our vote!
Any body get a anhydrous ammonia price.
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Post by SWMan on Jul 18, 2021 12:30:51 GMT -6
I remember fall of 2008 fert prices were through the roof and many guys cut back. 2009 was a good growing year and yields were excellent, but those who cut back paid for it with lower yields.
May not apply to current situation, but a good soil test to know residual N would be a good idea. As dry as it has been there will be leftovers.
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Post by jcalder on Jul 20, 2021 10:45:27 GMT -6
I don't quite follow how fertilizer prices follow price of grain. It doesn't take grain to make fertilizer...
Price gouging at it's finest.
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Post by cptusa on Jul 20, 2021 11:05:21 GMT -6
I don't quite follow how fertilizer prices follow price of grain. It doesn't take grain to make fertilizer... Price gouging at it's finest. Sure as hell isn't demand either when planted acres are down. Seems like a classic case of getting bent over. |
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Post by SWMan on Jul 21, 2021 17:59:13 GMT -6
Normally I would say they are free to charge what the market will bear, but the fertilizer industry is lacking competition big-time so it would seem the whole thing is somewhat manipulated based off flimsy excuses.
I have noticed fertilizer plants filling up this week, that often means that we are at the low. sigh...
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Post by Albertabuck on Jul 21, 2021 19:26:48 GMT -6
Its supply and demand...its all related...most everyone is convinced the secret to more money is to grow more bushels, so they spend more to grow those bushels. Hundreds of dollars of seed and fert per acre to grow more more more. And to combine them they need a 750K combine and three semis and five employees to haul it away, buy few more hundred K of bins and more, spend more more more so you can grow more more more!!!! And in the end who really made all the money...everyone but you...pencil it out, we made more growing less in the not too far distant past, but it wasn't good enough for some. And so here we are today.
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Post by SWMan on Jul 21, 2021 21:30:24 GMT -6
Its supply and demand...its all related...most everyone is convinced the secret to more money is to grow more bushels, so they spend more to grow those bushels. Hundreds of dollars of seed and fert per acre to grow more more more. And to combine them they need a 750K combine and three semis and five employees to haul it away, buy few more hundred K of bins and more, spend more more more so you can grow more more more!!!! And in the end who really made all the money...everyone but you...pencil it out, we made more growing less in the not too far distant past, but it wasn't good enough for some. And so here we are today. I think maybe you are exaggerating just a wee bit there AB.  But yeah I get your point. I've actually backed off the fertilizer(nitrogen) a little bit from a couple years ago, felt like I didn't need 200# of N to max out and risk of fertilizer burn is there at high rates. Don't need new equipment to grow great crops and most inputs are there no matter what, basically the extra fert and growth regulator and fungicide are the variable costs that would go higher. I've had good luck maximizing production myself, but we usually get enough rain to grow a decent crop. The grain handling thing is a cost I will admit, I probably have over 140 bu/acre of aerated storage and it's nice to not have to rely on the elevator in harvest. Also helps to have a neighbor that will rent bins if I don't need them...ha ha. I never complain about hauling more grain though, gladly get up at 5AM all winter to haul canola to the crush plant.  If we could convince everyone to grow less then it would work to push prices higher, but can never get all farmers on same page. Also then someone somewhere might go hungry??? |
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Post by SWMan on Aug 3, 2021 18:22:53 GMT -6
Farmer told me today that China has stopped exports of urea, announced today. I just can't seem to find any reports of this online, which in today's day and age usually means it happened. Anyone hear of this? If true it probably won't help nitrogen prices go down.  |
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Post by torriem on Aug 3, 2021 20:32:50 GMT -6
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Post by shmiffy on Aug 3, 2021 23:20:40 GMT -6
I think if you look back. China does have a certain time every year that they stop exports so their farmers aren’t shorted
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for 28-0-0. That's about .67/lb 
compared to the .36/lb I paid last summer. 
