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Post by slipclutch on Feb 14, 2024 9:19:06 GMT -6
Imput and fixed costs must be out of control if you need 90 bu wheat to make money. My break even on HR wheat is around 30bu at $8. Averaged yield has been 79bu/ac with 14.0 pro over the last 5 years, so its not like I am skimping on anything on the input side. Now I dont have labor costs or land rent costs to contend with either. You still need to pay yourself. Every farmer should be plugging in a realistic salary. I laugh at the guy who tells me they live on 30k a year. But yet drives a 100k truck and 20k or more of toys. I always tell me boys. If you weren’t farming how much money would you have to make outside of farming. As I can see 90% of farmers would have to make 120k or more. Now That’s a realistic number.
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Post by hardrockacres on Feb 14, 2024 11:37:48 GMT -6
I work full time off farm, but you are correct I do not give myself a wage. Off farm work pays for all recreation and normal living needs and money is kept seperate from the farm accounts. All money the farm makes goes into the farm, other than some that is used to pay any tax bill that is generated due to the farm. I do however pay wife and kids for work that they perform on the farm. For the kids it is more to help them have a bit of a nest egg for when they finish school and when I last I calculated they were getting around $100/hour for the hours they work. But the work is appreciated as it would of cost me time/money doing what they do for the farm. (parts runs, getting inputs, moving equipment/trucks to fields, unloading trucks at harvest, etc.), so i have no issue in giving them the amount I do as the wheels on the farm arn't turning if I am doing those things. Time is what I am shortest on when farming wehn you are gone all day for another job.
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Post by Oatking on Feb 14, 2024 11:39:02 GMT -6
I agree , not sure how 30 grand is realistic anymore . That can’t be a living wage . But yeah , if your farm is a depleted proprietorship than sometimes your wage will float from one year to the next . Might be half a million one year and 50 000 the next year . I guess if your farm is a corporation than it can stay more constant . Everybody does it different and is ok !
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Post by Oatking on Feb 14, 2024 11:48:44 GMT -6
My bias to grow oats over wheat stems more from successive wet years . The last 4 have been on the dryer side and depending on rains , wheat has done decent . Vomi and fuzz in the past has turned me off of barely and wheat ! I hate being in a position where you are forced to pawn off grain . Malt barley was impossible to attain . Crop insurance levels in Manitoba are a lot higher for wheat than compared to oats .
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BJT
Full Member
Posts: 111 Likes: 41
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Post by BJT on Feb 14, 2024 12:00:26 GMT -6
So when talking break evens, I looks like many don’t actually count all the costs. You can’t forget about machinery, whether it’s paid for or not, there is a cost. Repairs etc. probably needs to be replaced one day. Fuel. Any labour. Own all your land, should include some kind of opportunity cost. If $240 is a true break even on wheat, I applaud that. But I doubt it is.
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Post by kevlar on Feb 14, 2024 12:24:09 GMT -6
I agree. There are kind of two different “break evens “. One is the bare minimum costs that will get you from one year to the next or maybe a couple years, but eventually those unaccounted expenses will catch up. The other one takes into account all expenses that need to be paid. Land payments are a bit tricky, knowing that when you buy it it’s not going to pay for itself, but you still have to add in some of that expense. Every person and every farm is going to do it a little different. With grain prices heading where they are, it looks like we’re all going to find our version of break even 😡
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Post by hardrockacres on Feb 14, 2024 14:23:46 GMT -6
Tracking of all my costs are quite easy with all my farm accounts being seperate form my personel. I put away a % of profit every year to use towards upgrades, so maybe that should be in my prodcution costs and would boost my bottom line. I am a HD mechanic by trade so I do all my own repairs including major overhauls in the off season - so my repair bills are basically parts only. I run older stuff so I dont have equip payments or land payments as I paid off all the land a few years back. I didn't list every single of my costs to prove out my number for wheat but everything is included if applicable from crop/equip/liability insurance to a breakout of power in the house for my farm office. Tracked it for 27 years since I took over the farm after my dad passed away suddenly. Had alot of help setting up my spreadsheets as my mom and sister are both CA's.
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Post by SWMan on Feb 14, 2024 22:55:51 GMT -6
Every person and every farm is going to do it a little different. Lack of self-control is the biggest cost on some farms...
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Post by kenmb on Feb 15, 2024 7:52:49 GMT -6
I suspect that cheap debt is at the root of the self control factor.
I would think paying yourself first is no different than living in the city and working a job. Need to cover the cost of the house, food, taxes some kind of transportation and perhaps a little extra to go on a trip now and then, take in a football game and such. Most people don't need a large farm profit line to do that. And a lot of the things are priced into the total farm operation when living on the farm.
However some of those nice things to have on the farm are much more expensive than for the city guy. The new lawnmower in the city becomes a new compact tractor for the guy on the farm. A two car garage in the city becomes a modest sized shop on the farm as something to save up for or budget in order to pay yourself. So hard to say really. I suspect that is why people don't dwell on it too much.
As for price of land. Keep in mind how often people mention what "investors" are doing. Because investors are in a sector to make capital grow and they move as needed. Investors in farmland does not make them long term holders. And that is the most important consideration of all when the word "investor" is used. A true investor is very likely to move out of the sector when the returns are no longer present. So buyers become sellers. And we all know what happens when there are more sellers than buyers.
If investors are actually looking to hold the land to hunt, build acreages, do some hobby farming and such then no concern. If they are there simply to see their 5% or more return, then if there ever is a lack of return evident we sill see investors doing exactly what the word "investor" means.
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Post by serffarmer on Feb 15, 2024 19:52:34 GMT -6
Imput and fixed costs must be out of control if you need 90 bu wheat to make money. My break even on HR wheat is around 30bu at $8. Averaged yield has been 79bu/ac with 14.0 pro over the last 5 years, so its not like I am skimping on anything on the input side. Now I dont have labor costs or land rent costs to contend with either. $240 an acre? I am so far off that it’s not even funny.
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Post by victory on Feb 16, 2024 10:32:56 GMT -6
Input costs are about $240/ac over here. Depends what you all want to include after that.
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Post by billybigrigs on Feb 16, 2024 16:44:53 GMT -6
The land by Elstow is sold. Rumour is monette’s bought it for $4,500/ac
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Post by carlos on Feb 16, 2024 20:10:10 GMT -6
Got a call from the real estate agent this morning but he said he couldn't say who it was, but did say it was all rented back out. My neighbor said he heard it was an alberta farmer who was going to farm it himself.
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Post by kevlar on Feb 16, 2024 20:38:29 GMT -6
So if $4500 an acre is true and they rented it out, what does rent go for in that area? $200 an acre would take 22 years, $150 30 years, $100 45 years............ not really an investment if the only way you can make money on it is if the price has to keep appreciating until you sell it. If you’re in the game at the right time I guess you’ll make out alright but eventually someone is going to take a beating on it. And this is only if you pay cash for it, if it’s borrowed money it’s even worse.
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Post by Oatking on Feb 16, 2024 22:04:32 GMT -6
So if $4500 an acre is true and they rented it out, what does rent go for in that area? $200 an acre would take 22 years, $150 30 years, $100 45 years............ not really an investment if the only way you can make money on it is if the price has to keep appreciating until you sell it. If you’re in the game at the right time I guess you’ll make out alright but eventually someone is going to take a beating on it. And this is only if you pay cash for it, if it’s borrowed money it’s even worse. If it was mortgaged like most land is , the cost of that land could be 9000 an acre after 25 years ! Will that land be worth 9000 an acre in 23-25 years from now? It would have to be worth more than that to be a true investment ! You would hope to make at least 2000 an acre or more from your original investment ! In 25 years it has to be worth 11000 an acre ! These are numbers are getting crazy! I remember buying land for 700an acre, With interest it cost 1350 in total . I like to think it’s worth at least 7000 or more now ! Point is the same logic back than , will never work again I think !!! But Man if it does work out that way , you guys will be rich buggars !!!!
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