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Post by carlos on Feb 10, 2024 16:13:28 GMT -6
I see the auction is posted on Team Auctions.
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Post by wheatking76 on Feb 10, 2024 20:10:59 GMT -6
I see the auction is posted on Team Auctions. Guessing by the size and amount of equipment they farmed abit more that the 2800 acres? looks like they had iron fever having 2-3 of everything |
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Post by Oatking on Feb 10, 2024 22:03:15 GMT -6
I see the auction is posted on Team Auctions. Guessing by the size and amount of equipment they farmed abit more that the 2800 acres? looks like they had iron fever having 2-3 of everything Perhaps selling out gave them cash to farm the dream life! Good for them for doing it . Too bad they past away. But new iron doesn’t buy happiness !!! |
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Post by billybigrigs on Feb 11, 2024 5:56:16 GMT -6
I believe they were around the 10,000 acre mark. They had a full time custom guy doing seeding, spraying and harvest. Didn’t finish seeding until July this year, absolutely the most disorganized mess of an operation you’d ever see after the dad died.
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Post by carlos on Feb 11, 2024 10:51:29 GMT -6
That is putting it mildly. All the farmers , myself included was just waiting for that farm to implode. I know that sounds terrible, but it was bound to happen.
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Post by carlos on Feb 11, 2024 11:02:59 GMT -6
They did hire a local to seed and harvest. They did their own spraying, but had trouble finding the competent help to run it. 3/4 of their acres didn't get pre burn or in crop spraying. Fields were a mess. Same guy combined that did the seeding. Local farmers helped out as best as we could after the death of the son, but were told to bugger off by the so called "manager". She eventually was shown the door. Like I said was a real shit show this fall.
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Post by SWMan on Feb 13, 2024 0:27:50 GMT -6
Curious what happens if we enter a deflationary environment and asset values collapse. How would farmers balance sheets look then?
I'm not predicting this, but it is worth considering.
So far no sign of land prices cooling here, grain land up 700% in last 16 years and rarely does the really good land sell recently!
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Post by Oatking on Feb 13, 2024 7:23:55 GMT -6
Curious what happens if we enter a deflationary environment and asset values collapse. How would farmers balance sheets look then? I'm not predicting this, but it is worth considering. So far no sign of land prices cooling here, grain land up 700% in last 16 years and rarely does the really good land sell recently! I don’t see land rent declining . Really from a land owner stand point , renting land out is a poorer investment than collecting the interest off the land . If you figure 4000 dollar acre times 6 % would equal 240 an acre . That is what land rent should be . We all know it doesn’t work like that but it does tell you the land owner is not making a killing!!! Sw man , so nice to hear from you again ! I think foreign investment will keep land prices strong . A local farm near me is expanding by using big money from Germany . No way I can compete against that ! But really for me it’s ok , I know rent will remain high when I pull the pin . Although If I had a son , my view of land rent would be a bit more bitter ! I have come to the conclusion economics in this world don’t have to make sense except for my own and a gor other responsible minds ! Sw man , I think balance sheet in a deflationary period would resemble the 90s I remember my debt was more than my assets . I don’t know how I got thru those times . If that would ever happen now it would kill a lot of banks . Debt is so large now , banks would want you to work thru that period as opposed to taking it away !! |
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Post by kevlar on Feb 13, 2024 8:18:41 GMT -6
We’re still pretty early in all this, it was only 4-5 months ago that canola was worth $6 a bushel more than it is now. I don’t know if values of land and assets will collapse, but I believe a correction is coming. If prices stay where they are at for next year, which I don’t see being too hard to do as prices have dropped with a year of low yields in most of the world, so an average crop will be even worse, an average crop for my area will barely be break even. Farms with high debt load will feel the pinch even more, making that land they rented for 50-100% more than the area average not look so appealing.
We definitely aren’t high rollers, but have already started questioning a little more on what the money is going to get spent on. We have fairly low debt so hopefully that will be enough to keep things going here.
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Post by wheatking76 on Feb 13, 2024 9:52:34 GMT -6
i would agree with kevlar on this it'll take a year or so to really feel whats going on, alot of grain outta this area was sold and hauled right after combine was parked so no bags left before snow flew so in other words canola got sold at a nice price and most wheat over $9, most are just holding for now feeling out markets
as for land i see a few more sales and leases changing yet land owners must feel or getting advised if thinking on selling to move now, but i couldn't imaging sitting with a shed full of newer iron payments or hefty land payment right now i dont think i could sleep
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Post by victory on Feb 13, 2024 14:08:17 GMT -6
I drive for a local trucker in the winter hauling grain and fertilizer. There are still quite a few granaries around this area that are not empty. I think grain prices are close to finding a bottom at these prices, but who knows. I am hanging on to my HRS until summer, unless prices improve before then.
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Post by Oatking on Feb 13, 2024 16:23:07 GMT -6
I drive for a local trucker in the winter hauling grain and fertilizer. There are still quite a few granaries around this area that are not empty. I think grain prices are close to finding a bottom at these prices, but who knows. I am hanging on to my HRS until summer, unless prices improve before then. Good idea , today was the first time I seen hard red spring wheat with a 7 in the front for several years . How do you make money with wheat unless you get 90 bushels or more per acre? Inflation has got to be dried up by now ! |
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Post by hardrockacres on Feb 14, 2024 6:39:28 GMT -6
Imput and fixed costs must be out of control if you need 90 bu wheat to make money. My break even on HR wheat is around 30bu at $8. Averaged yield has been 79bu/ac with 14.0 pro over the last 5 years, so its not like I am skimping on anything on the input side. Now I dont have labor costs or land rent costs to contend with either.
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Post by Oatking on Feb 14, 2024 7:26:28 GMT -6
That is an impressive wheat yield .!
Land rent in my area is 120-200 depending on the land and how bad you want it . Add in a few equipment payments or farm mortgage and 500 an acre or more for wheat adds up . If a guy buys land now a days that payment alone is 500 an acre !
I haven’t grown wheat in at least 6 years. No body in my area averages 79 .
Usually 60-65 is average . Last year it was 25 for many .
Hopefully it produces more this year.
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Post by hardrockacres on Feb 14, 2024 8:32:30 GMT -6
Our land rent here is 80~120 from what I am told. forgot about the equipment payments, but I dont have any of those currently either. Guys buying land now are adding in the payment cost over all their acres so the 500 wouldnt be considered a direct cost/acre for that land growing wheat. They know going in that the land will not turn a profit on its own if the actual cost ot buy is factored in. Based on land prices nwo it almost applies to any crop grown. even a good canola crop would have a hard time breaking even at current land sale prices combinde with where the cmmodity prices are at.
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