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Post by kenmb on Oct 11, 2023 8:51:05 GMT -6
What's even better Kevlar is that the "markets" trade on those forecasts. The " markets" are supposedly made up of the smart money and therefore the markets driven by smart money are the most accurate way to set price of commodities. Dumb farmers are prone to make bad mistakes with backyarditis and such therefore effecting grain prices and holding grain so smart money who looks at all things is always the best option. So if analysts predict record crops in 2024 then the smart money is there to trade accordingly. Much like in spring when the USDA predicted record crops because a massive El Nino was coming (but didn't) and so the smart money knew it was all going to be fact so sold off grains at that time.
My definition of smart money would say you would never bet on a 2024 prediction. Especially when the 2023 prediction just failed. Yet this is exactly how things work - false predictions are made and trade is done accordingly. I do not say this is an example of two wrongs making a right.
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