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Post by Oatking on Mar 3, 2023 6:56:40 GMT -6
Yesterday I heard the term cold war again except this time it sounded like an actual threat involving possibly with weapons.
To relate this to our Ag Industry, I wondered what you folks thought would be the impact of our grain prices this fall. We are fortunate to have still decent prices on the board. If China does change its policy and revert back to South American beans and corn where will that leave us?
Its looking like the drought map in the US is shrinking every day now so if the Mid west produces a big crop and trade routes shut down are we screwed. We dont want a repeat of 2017-2018 with 8.50-10 a bushel soybeans.
Can China make it with out US beans. I also heard they over produced there hog herd after the african swine flu.
What is your best guess whats waiting ahead of us this planting season?
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Post by OptimallyDismal on Mar 3, 2023 7:29:19 GMT -6
Common sense and predictability left the building a long time ago.
I heard yesterday that the potato processors will demand that producers are regenerative farming by 2030, as well as Macdonalds and other large fry users. If everything is so sustainable we probably won't be allowed to eat french fries.
My best guess would be that we will be saying "well I didn't see that coming" a year from now.
Will be interesting if the US is at war with China where we will be in the world economy, I would think our markets would be severely restricted, and prices tank.
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Post by kevlar on Mar 3, 2023 8:14:16 GMT -6
The state we’re in now isn’t completely to blame on Trudeau and Biden, this all began 20 years ago, they both just drove the final nails in the coffin. I was just thinking about all this the other day. We’re in a position right now that China can bring the west to its knees without having to fire a shot, when 90% of all our crap is made there, they just have to shut down production and our economy is toast. They have enough other countries to supply them with grain and food, we are insignificant to them.
I’m hauling out the last of the wheat today that we priced at $12, I’m wondering if I shouldn’t just dump the rest of our grain? How far off is $3 oats, $6 wheat, $4 barley and $9 canola? Once the prices start dipping, it could be a free fall to the bottom. I still say this recession is going to hit hard despite what the experts say. Will certainly be a time to watch every penny.
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Post by cptusa on Mar 3, 2023 8:58:18 GMT -6
USA is not China's first choice for commodities. They'll be in south America until every bushel is bought year in and year out then come to USA to fulfill their needs.
The seeds of this conflict have been sown for decades. Team Biden is really pushing for a full on war with Russia over Ukraine and really wanting to take a stab at China too. NATO vs Russia and China, that's the end game to all this. Make no mistake NATO pulls it off with most of the force coming from USA with money, artillery, and bodies. The cost will be astronomical and likely make WW2 look like a parade. Widespread destruction over the entire globe. Working class naturally gets slaughtered worldwide. Elites hide in their bunkers to see the ruins of what they now preside over which will be a desolate pile of shit leading to starvation and exposure as none of them can operate a farm or factory.
The push is on for this war. Hopefully there are enough level headed people in power to ward it off because the masses are just along for the ride.
Maybe it's tin foil hat time for me, maybe I'm just not excited about my nearing draft eligible sons to come home in a flag draped coffin from fighting a war we have no real business to be in.
There is your daily dose of cheer for the day.
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Post by Oatking on Mar 3, 2023 11:09:40 GMT -6
It is concerning hearing a canola and pea plant in Manitoba going into receivership. It seemed just a few years ago we heard so much optimism in the grain sector. I think the costs have caught up to this over eager company.
I hope the new Paterson grain Oat mill can operate without problems in Winnipeg.
It seems we have hit the limit or close to it for many small businesses to operate in this high cost economy. The farms could also go down if yield is crushed.
I am very worried what the next five years holds for our farm businesses. I think this year we will be ok but next year the good times may start to slip like kevlar was saying.
I know locally quite a few small businesses in Winnipeg are closing for good or are barely hanging on. Cost of living is crushing everybody. I think some consumers dont realize most businesses are trying to eat some of these increased costs. If these new costs were passed down to consumers more people would realize our economy is not that rosey!
I still blame Trudeau and Biden.
Seriously, I dont hear of many big trade related trips by our prime minister. He seems pre occupied these days covering his tail instead of boosting his countries economy. I think biden would be in the same boat.
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Post by kevlar on Mar 3, 2023 11:25:59 GMT -6
Seriously, I dont hear of many big trade related trips by our prime minister.
[/quote]
That’s not a bad thing.
Most likely no other leaders want to talk to him, it’s not only the citizens of Canada that hate him. He’s despised by most countries.
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gleanerl
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Post by gleanerl on Mar 3, 2023 14:13:26 GMT -6
Been thinking lots lately about China after chatting with a military friend who is more then just a private. He said the thought is US and China will go to war in 2025. US and Taiwan election year so both countries will be distracted with that. Things to think about that he said, both US and China are occupying/stocking islands around Taiwan in preparation. It's not public knowledge he said, but Canada has had troops on the ground in Europe for over a year ready for all out war with Russia. (There certainly has been a lot more activity at the base near me). The current fight in Ukraine is using up NATO supplies making countries weaker. And he said the shortage of hunting ammunition is do to companies producing for Ukraine and US trying to stockpile for 2025.
So if he is correct on this it's not a great outlook.
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Post by Oatking on Mar 3, 2023 19:33:50 GMT -6
One has to wonder how other world powers like Argentina and Brazil react to this tension. Also where does India and countries in Africa stand. Oh than there is the Holy Land countries. They are always ready for war it seems.
I am realizing maybe Dad farmed in the golden ages. Maybe a more simple time in history. I know prices werent great but he made a good living and didnt have all the crap we get thrown in our face daily.
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tommo780
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Post by tommo780 on Mar 3, 2023 21:53:55 GMT -6
Two cents worth. Yes China could easily turn the taps off on its flow of cheap crap same as Russia could have turned off the flow of gas, but that is still their income so to a certain extent it's within there interest to keep some of it flowing, enough to pay the bills and keep the population from burning down the factories. With regard to Taiwan, obviously I can't corroborate it but I read in a few places that any "war" scenario that the pentagon has run regarding there and the general South China Sea area has resulted in a loss. Presumably because of the distance to bring in a constant stream of supplies. It's a very different story to just have a carrier group doing roaming maneuvers to actually keeping one supplied in an all out conflict. With regard to grain prices and inputs. I worked my way through this whilst sitting in the line up at the terminal this afternoon. Goes through all different markets including ag. In terms of analysts opinions, they're pretty well regarded I think. (I got the pdf from another investment group discussion but I think you can download it from below for free info.gorozen.com/2022-q4-commentary-peak-oil |
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gleanerl
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Post by gleanerl on Mar 3, 2023 22:13:42 GMT -6
One has to wonder how other world powers like Argentina and Brazil react to this tension. Also where does India and countries in Africa stand. Oh than there is the Holy Land countries. They are always ready for war it seems. I am realizing maybe Dad farmed in the golden ages. Maybe a more simple time in history. I know prices werent great but he made a good living and didnt have all the crap we get thrown in our face daily. My Dad says the same thing. 82 years old and says he's glad he's near the end, doesn't see the future being very good. |
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Post by kevlar on Mar 3, 2023 22:32:22 GMT -6
One has to wonder how other world powers like Argentina and Brazil react to this tension. Also where does India and countries in Africa stand. Oh than there is the Holy Land countries. They are always ready for war it seems. I am realizing maybe Dad farmed in the golden ages. Maybe a more simple time in history. I know prices werent great but he made a good living and didnt have all the crap we get thrown in our face daily. My Dad says the same thing. 82 years old and says he's glad he's near the end, doesn't see the future being very good. My dad said the same thing yesterday. Said we better be ready to farm the rest of his land next year because this will be his last year farming, said he’s had enough. Said he’s had a pretty good run go over 50 years, he just doesn’t know where it’s going to go from here. He couldn’t believe how much we had to pay for just one quarter, was more than he’s paid for his entire farm since he started. |
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Post by kenmb on Mar 9, 2023 10:06:19 GMT -6
If we can beleive anything in our news then this cold war is basically the countries using debt enslavement of the fiat currency scam vs possibly countries who wish to break free of it. And we are living on the side of the bad guys if this is the case. The BRICS nations are also picking up many other members according to our news like Egypt and Argentina and Peru if I remember right but you need to check on that. I don't remember all the countries but it is far more than 5. And it keeps adding. What this means is if there really is a movement on the planet that is trying to break free of the idea of infinite wealth created out of thin air, then we must accept that lines are being drawn and you won't actually engage in meaningful relations with the side you are trying to break free from. When I say infinite wealth one small example is our governments running endless and massive debts and it is primarily used as a tool against us which such things as forced injections, +23 genders, green energy, fight global warming, tax those who are independent, the welfare state, free illicit drugs to further destroy society, etc, etc, etc - the fiat currency scam allows all this. When was the last time government went on a massive spending spree of endless debt to build anything to really move society forward. While the above is kind of long winded, it is used to set up how we must view our world. Assuming the news has any truth at all. Also keep in mind our grain price is determined by futures trading. Our capitalist supply and demand world sets commodity  price by buying and selling an infinite number of paper contracts to represent a finite supply of something most valuable. I am a simple farmer so have a hard time seeing how paper futures pricing follows capitalism and free markets. Especially in a fiat currency world of printing money out of thin air. I can't say where this leads, it is unknown. I still favor holding grain. Sold some wheat for March delivery last week. Prices may go down more yet. Infinite paper contracts says this is as likely as prices going up. I keep coming back to one simple point: We are programmed to think entirely in $$$. We need to think in value. Assets, commodities have value and it isn't in $$$. The value is based on exchanging a commodity for an asset or vica versa. Yes, our dollar value of grain is going down so more bushels need to be sold for $$ to buy an asset right now. However if $$ per bu keeps going down then we watch to see if values of other things go down. Land, fertilizer, lumber, used equipment, etc. Sure, there is a lagin all this and profiting is based on timing. Sell grain now and sit on cash. May possibly work. The flip side of all this is we use $$ to assess value. We assume the $$holds value. But it doesn't. It keeps losing value. So the $10 wheat may not keep going down. If the $$keeps losing value then it means more $$ are needed to buy grain so $$/bu goes up. It all depends on what goes on in our world around us. If there really is an group trying to oppose the side that creates $$ out of thin air. Our "news" says there is a cold war. Hopefully there is. And hopefully our side loses. In the meantime it is a big unknown as to what the $$ created out of thin air does and how we exchange our grain (things of value) for things of no intrinsic value (the $$). |
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Post by shmiffy on Mar 10, 2023 11:16:02 GMT -6
US is moving up to $51 trillion in debt. Doesn’t seem that long ago when they hit $1 trillion.
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Post by kevlar on Mar 10, 2023 21:33:46 GMT -6
China sends a balloon over us, so we did this to really screw with them 😜  |
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Post by kenmb on Mar 12, 2023 9:36:03 GMT -6
Something always changing. This is why I lean more towards holding grain vs selling for $$ at any given time. Yes, as of last week and using hindsight, the smart play would be to sell all grain on hand and forward contract all new production back in fall.
That was last week.
Now this weeks news is run on banks, where to park $$ to avoid possible loss on a bank failure (theft of your stored labor), and I see Egypt is not on board with the UN grain program called the Grain Trade Convention. Ok, first of all, as noted the other day, Egypt is signed on with BRICS so Egypt severing ties with a thing that has "UN" in the description seems the logical move. More interesting is that the UN has an control scheme to monitor and regulate the trade of grains. Ok, probably not so surprising really. People like to think we have free markets and things like supply and demand and that governs what we see for price of grains. But then that wouldn't require multinational linkages to monitor and organize grain trade. I mean, either its trade based on free market principles or it is organized and structured. Which is it.
No surprise Egypt is pulling out of an organized operation that oversees the trade of grain. Yes, having a group dictate grain trade is all fine and dandy if you are all playing nice but that likely isn't the case when we are supposed to have free markets and grain is bought based on world wide listed values. So such an organization must therefore be set to screw someone over. Control food as a weapon comes to mind.
We will see where things go. This news about a "bank run" will most likely follow the Evergrande news from last year which was one of the most recent things said to blow up the world financial system - but simply all disappeared. Evergrande probably still in business and all the key players still rich. So perhaps this bank run will go the same way. However my basic point remains the same. If THEY ever want to pull the plug on the system they can do it anytime. All they need to do is make up an excuse and people will believe it. So sitting on some grain is always a good idea, regardless what the $$ is one month vs another. Sell grain for $$ but get rid of those dollars fast.
One curiosity is we are apparently in a cold war with China. But Brazil, India, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, etc, don't also get mentioned in the mainstream news even though they are all part of the same cold war alliance.
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price by buying and selling an infinite number of paper contracts to represent a finite supply of something most valuable. I am a simple farmer so have a hard time seeing how paper futures pricing follows capitalism and free markets. Especially in a fiat currency world of printing money out of thin air.