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Post by rod on Aug 28, 2021 16:07:46 GMT -6
We’re hearing lots of media about the crap yields in the northern US states & Canada for canola & wheat.
So how bad are the yields? Is it widespread or do some areas have near to average yields?
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Post by meskie on Aug 28, 2021 16:41:28 GMT -6
We have half a average crop around here. Only know a couple guys who had one or two fields that have been above average. They told me it was a 1/4 that floods out most every year produced really well this year. But across the farm it’s still below.
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Post by shmiffy on Aug 28, 2021 17:23:30 GMT -6
There is next to nothing for grain trucks moving around. Lucky to see a truck at an elevator
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Post by Oatking on Aug 28, 2021 17:46:35 GMT -6
All you have to do is look up crop prices and than you will realize how bad it is. $22 per bushel of canola off the combine speaks for itself. Our sub soil moisture gone. Unlike in OZZY land we need a foot of snow to equal an inch of water so let it snow , let it snow , let it snow this winter. Lots of fields yielding 0 bushels to the acre in Manitoba.
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Post by cptusa on Aug 28, 2021 20:54:55 GMT -6
We're on the edge of badness/greatness. We will have a decent crop but the top end is gone. North and west its drier and worse, south was way wet. Sweet spot northeast of here really got pummeled with winds last week. We're far from an epic disaster but corn and beans are tight. Corn especially. +$1.00 basis for near by. -.05 to -.04 for new crop through December. Crop wasn't there in 2019, derecho claim a significant amount of bushels not yet realized by USDA in 2020, 2021 growing season not exactly a peach everywhere.
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Post by rod on Aug 28, 2021 20:55:34 GMT -6
All you have to do is look up crop prices and than you will realize how bad it is. $22 per bushel of canola off the combine speaks for itself. Our sub soil moisture gone. Unlike in OZZY land we need a foot of snow to equal an inch of water so let it snow , let it snow , let it snow this winter. Lots of fields yielding 0 bushels to the acre in Manitoba. Yes ….. certainly the prices have gone up ….. which is great …… but we’re still a long way from home yet. There’s still plenty of time for the show to turn tits up ! We’re coming into our “crunch months” now. Hot winds & mid 30°’s is not uncommon in OZ to throw a big spanner in the spokes of crop forecasts. ”snow” …… you can have that stuff! |
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Post by jcalder on Aug 28, 2021 21:06:49 GMT -6
All you have to do is look up crop prices and than you will realize how bad it is. $22 per bushel of canola off the combine speaks for itself. Our sub soil moisture gone. Unlike in OZZY land we need a foot of snow to equal an inch of water so let it snow , let it snow , let it snow this winter. Lots of fields yielding 0 bushels to the acre in Manitoba. Not a great philosophy though. Take a look at this: www.gov.mb.ca/agriculture/weather/morris-cc.htmlI know you're from north of Morris so it should be close. Those soil moisture probes depict Volumetric Water Content. In our clay soils about 20% is dust and 60% is saturation. If you're in the neighborhood of 40 to 50% you're in good shape. For instance 20% VMC = about 2.4" of water per foot of soil. Currently Morris is sitting around 40% near the surface and it's dry underneath. In other words getting 5 feet of snow would do zilch for subsoil moisture but it would make for a fantastic flood because that 40% which is about the equivalent to 4.8" of water per foot would be frozen solid while your snow melts. Honestly for ground moisture replenishing this 1/2" to 1" of rain we've been getting every 2 to 3 days is best case scenario, just sucks that it's happening while we want to combine. Snow does very little for replenishing subsoil moisture. |
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ltk
Junior Member
Posts: 80
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Post by ltk on Aug 28, 2021 21:08:12 GMT -6
All you have to do is look up crop prices and than you will realize how bad it is. $22 per bushel of canola off the combine speaks for itself. Our sub soil moisture gone. Unlike in OZZY land we need a foot of snow to equal an inch of water so let it snow , let it snow , let it snow this winter. Lots of fields yielding 0 bushels to the acre in Manitoba. That.........and i snowchecked a new sled so............yup...let it snow let, it snow, let it snow. Also, our MD spent all summer fixing ditched and replacing culverts. I guess they got tired of washed out roads every spring even with moderate snowmelts. |
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Post by jcalder on Aug 29, 2021 8:00:10 GMT -6
All you have to do is look up crop prices and than you will realize how bad it is. $22 per bushel of canola off the combine speaks for itself. Our sub soil moisture gone. Unlike in OZZY land we need a foot of snow to equal an inch of water so let it snow , let it snow , let it snow this winter. Lots of fields yielding 0 bushels to the acre in Manitoba. That.........and i snowchecked a new sled so............yup...let it snow let, it snow, let it snow. Also, our MD spent all summer fixing ditched and replacing culverts. I guess they got tired of washed out roads every spring even with moderate snowmelts. Even better, I've been searching for a 1997 or 1998 XCR 440 for years and I finally got my hands on one at the end of July. Can't wait to work on it and get it out on the snow! |
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Post by kenmb on Aug 29, 2021 8:31:44 GMT -6
That's the way I see it too about snow melt. We went into last winter with dry top soil so the snow melt was actually absorbed into the soil more so than an average spring. Go into winter with a wet top soil and the top layer remains frozen while the snow melts. So the snow melt all runs down hill. I think a lot of people way over estimate how much snow melt contributes to spring soil moisture. Yes it helps. But I would rather have 2" of spring rain than 4" equivalent snow melt when ground is frozen.
Keep in mind also how much snow turns to water vapor when the sun shines on it.
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Post by Oatking on Aug 29, 2021 8:36:14 GMT -6
Hey good site calder, lots of good info . Didnt mean 5 feet of snow , but would be nice to cover the fields so they dont blow so bad like last year. I saw an article and video at climax Minnesota which showed major land destruction. A farmers river lot field dropped 25 feet straight down caused from massive ground slumping. He said he lost around 5 acres of soybeans. The red is so low right now they say the force of the soil slides down to the river. I was wondering how common that risk of land loss is along major rivers. I wondered on one of my river lots there is a shelf that drops down about 15 feet and wondered if that is how that occurred many years ago. Now it has smoothed out from numerous floods so I can farm up and down the elevation. At 7000 dollars acre though that would be very frustrating to lose good ground. Thank goodness it didnt happen when a combine or grain cart or seeder was on it at the time of the slide! Scary!
Well with last nights storm, I have recorded 6.5 inches in two weeks which is what I had all season from seeding to just two weeks ago. If this keeps up , which looks like another half inch on wednesday and friday maybe we will be in great shape in the spring.
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Post by meskie on Aug 29, 2021 8:55:48 GMT -6
That's the way I see it too about snow melt. We went into last winter with dry top soil so the snow melt was actually absorbed into the soil more so than an average spring. Go into winter with a wet top soil and the top layer remains frozen while the snow melts. So the snow melt all runs down hill. I think a lot of people way over estimate how much snow melt contributes to spring soil moisture. Yes it helps. But I would rather have 2" of spring rain than 4" equivalent snow melt when ground is frozen.
Keep in mind also how much snow turns to water vapor when the sun shines on it.
I agree that snow melt doesn’t do much for soil moisture except fill dugouts and streams. Last winter the snow was melting into the ground for a week or more after it snowed. Ground wasn’t froze or cold and 16” of snow on top insulated it. I was actually finding mud under the snow in December around our cattle pens when I was cleaning snow before we put cattle in them. I would take a couple inches of rain in April also as it does more for hay and pasture land then any amount of snow does. |
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Post by SWMan on Aug 29, 2021 9:14:23 GMT -6
Rod it's a fairly serious drought, and over a large area like you mentioned. In my area I would call it half of a five year average and I think we are pretty fortunate. Some are better and some worse because of the nature of spotty showers. We currently sit at 27-28% soil moisture and that's after nearly doubling our rainfall in last week or two, so I don't think I am crying wolf that we were dry. Best crops are still in the field as long as we don't get a freeze event in next 2-3 weeks, so not out of the woods yet on those.
I gotta ask why a 440 Jcalder? There was a 600 available in that vintage if I am not mistaken. We are definitely due for a higher snowfall winter, it's been awhile.
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Post by kevlar on Aug 29, 2021 9:32:57 GMT -6
You know when Stats Canada and USDA keep lowering the expected yields, it must be bad! lol And to make it worse, many of the areas that were lucky enough to have a good crop are now fighting with too much rain.
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Post by carlos on Aug 29, 2021 10:15:18 GMT -6
Brother in law bought this last year. 1100 miles. |
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