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Post by kenmb on Jan 14, 2021 15:55:31 GMT -6
Malt barley is a strange one. Johnstons Grain has been no bid since harvest. And Rayglen for example isn't showing much for offers either. My local Richardson went to $6.16 today for April on Metcalfe so think i will book some tomorrow. Their Synergy offer is $5.38 with only Sept 21 - December 2021 listed for delivery so that variety isn't going to win many fans here. They are at $9.61 for yellow peas and $5.71 for feed barley.
Feed barley was $5 contract here too for new crop. But never paid attention to malt pricing. I will give it a few months to see what they put together. With strong feed market I don't think I would look at anything under $6 for malt contract. And that likely isn't going to be offered. Time will tell.
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Post by meskie on Jan 14, 2021 15:59:53 GMT -6
We always figure we need $1.25-$1.50 more to grow malt then feed. Generally we need to dry it and swath it. Feed you can be 15 moisture and you can let it stand till it’s ripe and not worry about spouting chitting and colour. Can also spray feed pre harvest to clean up some weeds if needed.
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kens
New Member
Posts: 39 Likes: 17
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Post by kens on Jan 14, 2021 16:40:12 GMT -6
We always figure we need $1.25-$1.50 more to grow malt then feed. Generally we need to dry it and swath it. Feed you can be 15 moisture and you can let it stand till it’s ripe and not worry about spouting chitting and colour. Can also spray feed pre harvest to clean up some weeds if needed. I have always been happy with a 50c premium, though I am never happy growing malt for under $5. I sure am regretting sighning new crop contracts with Canada Malt now for $5.25.
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Post by kenmb on Jan 14, 2021 16:47:18 GMT -6
I agree that 50c premium is what we are accustomed here also. But that Meskies numbers are more sensible. I haven't contracted malt yet and it was not too often that dad did either. Mainly because 50c is the best we see so it makes more sense to grow it not under contract and see what comes. I don't expect to see a $6 offer, but that is what it would take to get me even thinking about a contract.
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Post by meskie on Jan 14, 2021 17:01:38 GMT -6
We can get 10-15 more bu/ac if we grow a feed variety and pound the N to it compared to variety that we are growing for malt. Also works better for cash flow cause feed generally goes in the month you contract it. If we contract malt with Viterra it also has to go an extra 30km to elevator. Viterra has a big terminal in melfort but have to haul the malt past it. Feed can just go to melfort.
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Post by SWMan on Jan 14, 2021 18:31:30 GMT -6
I don't think there is too much grain left that isn't already sold, what is left is probably in strong hands.
Always heard about the Russian grain robbery in the 70's when they bought up all the wheat I think before anyone knew what was going on. This one could probably best be described as the Chinese grain robbery...
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Post by Albertabuck on Jan 14, 2021 19:56:44 GMT -6
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Post by SWMan on Jan 14, 2021 23:57:52 GMT -6
No I have not. I wonder what role the CWB had in giving away all of our grain at that time, probably will never know because no audit was ever publicly done.
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Post by kenmb on Jan 15, 2021 11:10:19 GMT -6
While I don't know the storylines, such a scenario is what I consider is playing out. A good way to create food inflation is to buy it all up and trickle it out. Then some entity will demand government step in and fix things in some fashion. I mentioned the ramped up talk of "food security" in the last year or so. Create the narrative to set it in the public sphere, then create the real life example, then create the solution for something that never really existed as a problem in the first place.
Example of end result: Farmers and private enterprise can't be trusted with free markets, the government must be sole buyer to ensure food security.
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Post by kenmb on Feb 4, 2021 8:53:24 GMT -6
Local Richardson now has Metcalfe at $6.38, feed barley at $6.03 and y peas at $10.29. All in that April May time frame. Synergy barley now at $5.70 but September delivery. Can get yellow pea new crop contract through elevator at $9 but no act of God. Tempting, and while I never seen a time when we never had anything near a pea crop failure, I did get a pretty good hail two years ago that sticks in my mind. The bushels were there if I had contract to fill but down grading could be an issue. Need to think more on it.
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Post by SWMan on Feb 4, 2021 12:11:16 GMT -6
These prices exist because there isn't much crop left to buy. Every week I hear about how the railways are moving record amounts of bulk grain out the west coast, plus huge crush and feed numbers too. We have a grain drain going on right now. I read one article that talked about the stockpiling going on in China now is reminiscent of Germany prior to WW2, don't know if that's a valid comparison or not.
So if we are really scraping the bottom of the barrel and 2021 has any sort of production issue does a guy want to be holding production and up-side price risk? What expert thought that prices would be where they are now? What if there is some sort of a reset this year like the elites want? To me these are all valid reasons to be in the GBS mode(grow it...bin it...sell it). Downside risk is minimal and acceptable IMO, other risks are hard to define.
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Post by shmiffy on Feb 4, 2021 12:50:22 GMT -6
China has spoken for 1 mmt of new crop barley. Be interesting to know what they are paying. Last corn auction in China, all that was offered got sold for over $11/US.
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Post by generalchaos on Feb 4, 2021 14:15:47 GMT -6
Viterra had a special on new crop soys last week for $13.00 limited tonnes. Today again, same price.
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Post by Oatking on Feb 4, 2021 14:58:30 GMT -6
Options (calls , puts) are your best friend in this kind of market. They were very cheap last september. A put on new crop canola for 2021 , that gives you till sept to sell it , i paid around 50 cents a bushel. I dont feel quite as bullish as some and i am quite contempt selling my beans for 13 bucks a bushel off the combine this harvest . More is alway s better of course ! Heck if the crop prices are like this at harvest time than 2022 should be a great year to price also. Funny just a few years ago people in ag business were claiming the world was in a wash of grain. I haven t bothered to price a new crop 2021 harvest period call. I would imagine now it would be over 50 cents a bushel. Any body else use options? They are not for everybody.
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Post by SWMan on Feb 4, 2021 18:52:40 GMT -6
Viterra had a special on new crop soys last week for $13.00 limited tonnes. Today again, same price. It's always a "special" price and always "limited tonnes". Grain buying is turning into fake news these days...
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