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Post by Oatking on Mar 1, 2022 14:29:42 GMT -6
I agree cpt. I like to say I love these current prices and I am guilty of pulling the trigger here recently, but when you think of the high fuel price and food prices , can we expect people to afford to pay for 25 dollar canola or 20 dollar beans or 15 dollar wheat? I heard superstore was not carrying lays potato chips because they refused to raise the price of there chips. The other day SOBEY'S is voting on a strike for higher wages. I think there will be a lot of people striking to get higher wages. What will that do to our already beleaguered supply chain. We live by the sword and we die by the sword. I was wondering how stable chernobyl is now and if nukes were flying there what would that do to grain production in the Ukraine and Europe.
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Post by torriem on Mar 1, 2022 18:47:26 GMT -6
Even just russian tanks driving across Ukrainian fields would be devastating for spring planting. And if the invasion is successful, many ukrainian farmers may not even be able to plant their crops. There will be shortages of everything regardless of what happens. Even best case, with a failed invasion and a Russian retreat, this is going to set back Ukrainian agriculture this year.
If nukes go off, all bets are off! It is worrisome that Putin wanted Chernobyl. It's not a functioning power plant anymore, so all I can think is he wants to hold the threat of releasing nuclear waste over the world. He's literally gone mad.
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Post by SWMan on Mar 2, 2022 0:02:34 GMT -6
How does one even know what is happening over in Ukraine? Many of the videos pushed out by media in the early days were actually recycled from other disasters and military training exercises. I have no doubt something is happening but is it as serious as what is shown on the news? Remember the legacy media has basically shown they lie about everything else so why would this be different? I'm curious if anyone has family over there to know that, in fact, there is widespread war and not targeted strikes.
I read transcripts of a couple of Putin's speeches and compared to what Trudeau and Biden say most of the time he appears to be one of the most sensible and sane world leaders at the moment!
As far as grain prices go things are getting pretty interesting. When the move goes parabolic it often means time is short, and some of these daily moves are indicating that might happen. Trying to decide which commodities have more left in the tank, what are guys thoughts on that? Feels like oilseeds have made the biggest move earliest and maybe the grains could have some catch-up to do. I definitely feel wheat has lagged some of the others thus far.
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Post by OptimallyDismal on Mar 2, 2022 8:02:39 GMT -6
This Russia Ukraine thing is very complicated and the more I read the more convoluted it gets. I think because the MSM is taking the Ukraine side, that actually Putin may not be the bad guy. Like everything else, there is an agenda at work and we aren't equipped to know what it is. This is an interesting article: dailyexpose.uk/2022/03/02/covid-putin-no-threat-to-freedom-gates-trudeau-are/I still have no worthwhile opinion on the conflict. Still hoping for $25 canola!
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Post by totaledmygn on Mar 2, 2022 10:36:48 GMT -6
How much gas in in the spring wheat tank? When oats hit $11 per 34lb. bushel 60lb. wheat sure seamed cheap. Is $15 wheat realistic? How about $18-20?
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Post by Oatking on Mar 2, 2022 10:54:38 GMT -6
I think the wheat is marketed operates differently than oats. Isn"t wheat harvested 10 months out of the year and oats is mostly subject to harvest in Australia, Canada and Norway area? I do think wheat prices have lagged but it took a war to stimulate them. A lot of factors in the wheat market including the winter wheat crop, protein and quality make it tough to sell. 2023 harvest sept futures for hrsw was around 11 bucks futures only. I will want a basis on that now because I think basis levels will be dicey and pricey next year due to inflation and shipping costs. Futures are kind of useless if the basis sucks back the difference you were normally used to! An article in the Western Producer said CN AND CP rail roads were doing a poor job moving grain. Yikes, that on a pretty low production year last year. What happens if we get back to normal.?
Do you guys think basis pricing will change much?
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Post by SWMan on Mar 2, 2022 12:22:57 GMT -6
How much gas in in the spring wheat tank? When oats hit $11 per 34lb. bushel 60lb. wheat sure seamed cheap. Is $15 wheat realistic? How about $18-20? Wheat is already over $13 now. I still think it will go higher but did make a sale this morning as well as on canola. Canola was pushing close to $25! Hauling this afternoon. Basis varies a lot between elevators, it's basically the signal if they want it now or not. Depends on which company is active in what market. Used to be the best end result was to separate the basis and futures because they often never lined up to be great at the same time, nowadays you may as well just flip a coin because conventional wisdom is out the window. IMO your strategy to current markets is gonna be based on a couple of factors: Risk management and risk tolerance. Define your own risks.
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Post by cptusa on Mar 2, 2022 13:18:17 GMT -6
I'd heard one time wheat is harvested somewhere every month.
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Post by kenmb on Mar 3, 2022 8:22:36 GMT -6
There are a few more factors in play here. Acknowledging that we don't have the real story via our "news" we can still ignore that fact and think in other directions.
The most noteworthy point is how we are focused on $. Everything we do is based on transactions for $. Yet a $ is simply a momentary unit of exchange. If you don't plan to exchange one thing for another anytime soon then a guy really should not be acquiring $. Because the value of that $ can change significantly over 6 months. As we have seen in the last few years, acquiring $ and holding them is a bad idea since you are on the loosing side of that plan. So we have been accustomed to getting rid of $ for something else - paying off debt, buying capital items, investing in stocks, etc. It's a strange thing how we are accustomed to obtain $.
So the area to consider right now with Ukraine is the talk of sanctions and which countries are aligning with who. Once again, we need to be fully aware that our "news" is not news so we don't what is fact. But we need to be aware of things possibly in play. So what I am seeing is this ideas of the BRICS countries being aligned over recent events. About half the world population. And this is centered around economic warfare. Yes, it's all BS, talk of sanctions, blocking transactions with Russian banks and such, we don't know the truth of how that stuff really works. But the point is to know stuff is happening, we can never know what the result is but simply note things are in play.
So the gist of this is the idea of are present financial scam is on the rocks. And this Ukraine crisis may be the tool to change what was a system based on the $US as the world reserve currency. Now if that system ends, then we expect anything tied to the reserve currency status to go through a revaluation process. Maybe not, because again, we don't know how this all goes. But it is quite possible for this stuff to all end up with a massive change in what the $ is now vs what it is in the future.
So keeping in mind we exchange things of lasting value (say commodities) for things of short term value (the $) then the Ukraine situation may be putting a spotlight on this.
Getting back to the idea of a major event in our financial world we need to pay attention to the idea that the $ you get now may not have much relevance to what you think the $ is worth in 6 months.
I can't say what guys should do other than to remind people the $ is a unit of exchange. Not a store of wealth. Selling assets to hold $ with all this talk of sanctions and disruptions of the monetary system, trade, banking, etc is something that we can't assume is a known entity 6 months out.
Also note that Evergrande default still has not amounted to anything. And now we are talking about a major disruption with sanctions. Who knows how it goes. An article the other day said Russian bonds were effectively at $0 value and so that is enough to blow up the financial system because those bonds were assets to cover debt just a week before.
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Post by kenmb on Mar 3, 2022 10:23:26 GMT -6
My local Richardson Pioneer still showing same prices as two weeks ago for feed and malt barley, peas, flax. Wheat has moved up 80 cents for spring and summer delivery. So they aren't buying, probably selling some of the grains they picked up at a lot lower price.
Looking at the charts and wheat going parabolic sure makes it tempting to look around and see what I can get for selling assets for $. It is how we have been programmed to think all our lives because it is how the system operates. So I keep reminding myself of the possibility that the system changes. Covid seemed like a good alarm bell to this possibility with all the crap that was introduced into our lives.
I did sell some malt barley about 10 days ago just before things went crazy. As much as I like to say holding grain is a good idea I don't advocate for being 100% on one side. Nothing is certain, or predictable.
Local Pioneer was at $10.91/bu for Metcalfe malt for March delivery so sold half of what I got left. Interesting to note that they have no problem moving metcalfe even though it is supposed to be phased out. I know of a couple bto's still putting in Metcalfe here for spring. Local market dynamics based on what Pioneer has for long time buyers is what the elevator guys say.
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Post by Oatking on Mar 3, 2022 10:28:30 GMT -6
I believe the russia army will make sure the ukraine crop gets planted if that means a soldier seating next to the farmer in the tractor. If that area means fighting for they will not lose an opportunity for sales. China will more than likely be there as a buyer. Only disclaimer is if the ukraine resistors bomb the active ports destroy all grain related structures. That sort of sounds like what Germany did at the end of world war 2 is destroy there country so the new kids on the block had nothing to start with. I am worried if Xi decides to not buy or cancel US grain sales. It is unusually a comedian by trade leads the Ukraine resistance. Reminds me of Canada's leader . I mentioned on CBC that Putin will be recognized as a hero once this is all over and sure enough after an hour its was pulled down. I believe Putin does not want anything to do with the WEF and will gain as much power to nullify that opposing world push for power
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Post by Oatking on Mar 3, 2022 11:57:24 GMT -6
Oats is really taking a hitting on the cash new crop bids. Almost down 1.30 from the highs in January. All other crop commodities are moving higher. I wonder what my local elevator manager would say If I canceled 150 000 bushels of new crop oats at 7 bucks and signed up beans, wheat or canola at todays levels. Ahhhh, just kidding! His chair would be spinning around in circles!! Best to not over think things and follow your rotation plan. The final USDA and Canadian planting acre report will be one of the most interesting reports in years. So many options to choose from. Lets hope we all get some bushels to sell.
Peas are getting a lot of attention in my area. Good varieties are sold out and guys are trying anything to cut down the fertilizer bill.
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Post by SWMan on Mar 4, 2022 10:50:15 GMT -6
I see some elevators actually narrowing up wheat basis, that coupled with increased futures means over $14 now. I figured since these companies are shameless about data mining then I will start asking how much grain they think is around still. In this area there is still grain according to those I have spoken with. Clearly somebody wants it!
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Post by carlos on Mar 4, 2022 12:05:03 GMT -6
Yeah, just got a text telling me my target triggered for 14$.
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Post by meskie on Mar 4, 2022 13:07:28 GMT -6
Viterra had a feed barley special for new crop at $7.50 the last few days. As typical Viterra fashion the price is $7.57 now and the special is gone.
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