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Post by kenmb on Feb 1, 2021 10:01:23 GMT -6
What's the feeling about this.
I read posts on various forums about people being worried. Concerns about destruction of the stock market, hedge funds, the banking system.
I am obviously in favor of it. It's a corrupt system in my opinion and tearing it down is for the better. Of course, the real fear is likely from either not understanding the present system or what is on the other side. Kind of like opening the door of a caged animal - what comes next.
On a matter of principle and the talk of people intentionally blowing up the system. There is no moral hazard here. The system was built and intentionally had this problem. That is why it is heavily controlled. People recognizing the weakness and using the basic mechanisms to buy what they want is not something I see as wrong. Nor people talking on a public forum about what to buy. It is the system that is at fault. Destroying hedge funds is fair game, don't gamble what you can't afford to loose. Hedge funds being crushed is simply them knowing the risks and loosing. It's actually more than that, it's a rigged game and they are not supposed to loose, but in principle they knew the game.
And the banks do also. Issuing endless streams of paper to represent one unit of physical is corruption they knowingly engage in. Nothing unethical about exploitation of that fact.
The Game Stop and other short squeezes can bleed a lot of cash from hedge funds. These $Billions play in a lot of markets, including grain. There could be contract sell offs in grains to free up equity to cover losses on shorts. I see a number of $70B so far racked up in losses. But that is also less funds to piss around in the grains markets too, less fund to buy or sell contracts, less funds to move prices by people with not a single interest in grains - just in the casino.
So I see the stock short squeeze as going after hedge funds and the "smaller" money. Take them out of the picture. Draw attention to the scam.
The attack on silver I see as the main goal. It's not about driving up the price and people making a profit at the expense of banks. I really think the target is to blow up the banking system. Time will tell. Just wondering how people feel about it. It may not be a pretty end result. But, understanding what exists now, I think I want to take my chances. Change is coming one way or the other. That has been clearly in the works with the lead up to 2008 and so well before.
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Post by SWMan on Feb 1, 2021 10:46:08 GMT -6
The last thing I would worry about these days is money, there is a huge double-standard these days as it relates to business/law/etc. Getting back to a fair and transparent market will involve PAIN, it's time to rip the band-aid off!!!
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Post by shmiffy on Feb 1, 2021 12:15:30 GMT -6
I don’t think the Reddit group has a play on silver. Funds are long. I think it’s the funds way of making up for some loss on gme. If shorts weren’t allowed in the grain market, the price of grain would be a lot higher.
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Post by meskie on Feb 1, 2021 12:42:22 GMT -6
Goes to show how corrupt a system it really is
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Post by Beerwiser on Feb 1, 2021 12:50:56 GMT -6
I found this cartoon a few days ago, sums up my opinion quite well. SW has it right, time to level the playing field. The gamestop deal was pretty priceless in my opinion, they beat them at their own game. Kind of ironic that they picked a gaming company too. I see the ag market as just as crooked. As an example, I am not sure how the Iowa wind storm this summer affected the market, but I am willing to bet the prices never went up in relation to the damage. The way things are now is not working, time for a change. If it is a sellers market we should dictate the price a bit more and vice versa. It is relatively easy to find out how crops are doing overall in today's world and a guy should be able to benefit from that, but that is far from the case. It should be noted I really know f all about the finer points of stock markets lol. Attachments:
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Post by cptusa on Feb 1, 2021 13:39:44 GMT -6
I am not sure how the Iowa wind storm this summer affected the market, but I am willing to bet the prices never went up in relation to the damage. I will venture a guess that the derecho here has not yet affected the market other than locally in improved basis. The price action we are seeing is due to increase in demand and shorter then expected ending stocks in 2019 due to inept USDA reporting. They are kicking the can down the road again calling the 2020 Iowa yield 184 bpa which in my opinion is net to impossible, needs to shrink 10-20 bpa. They never release year end number until harvest in under way the next year, October I think is when they come out... coincidence? You freaking bet. Everyone is screaming about tight soybean stocks, the real party is going to be in corn, it's just hard to say when they will tap the keg. Disclaimer: Even though I am knocking the crap out of every marketing service so far the risk of taking advice from a random guy on the internet is at your own peril. Even tough I'm right. |
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Post by shmiffy on Feb 1, 2021 14:02:29 GMT -6
I’m thinking that 230 million bushels of corn that China said they are buying and the 200 million gallons of ethanol, Some of that will be from the next crop? With record number of animals on feed. Has the usda have higher feed use in their books?
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Post by kenmb on Feb 2, 2021 9:24:17 GMT -6
It all seems irrelevant if more paper can be issued.
Shortage of corn, just issue more paper. No one knows how short the corn is until there is none to be had, but you can still buy paper anyway.
As Running Red Hard posted in the other forum, you also have the idea of failure to deliver (ftd). So GME is shorted by more than 100% of stock ever made available. Think about that one. And that happens because the brokers due their due diligence to establish how much stock can be borrowed (not bought - think about that).
The brokers therefore say, oops, sorry our bad, we made more stock available to short than is conceivable. So we will give two options to the short borrower - buy out your position by paying the share price or make the margin call. By making margin call the short position is basically rolling it over. And once margin is made, it seems to me it is up to the broker to roll over a short position indefinitely.
And if the short position can be rolled over indefinitely, what kind of games exist for longs. When you start playing this manipulation with brokers deciding who gets what treatment, then it is far from an open and free system.
And the same can apply to commodities. Silver being the example today, margins to buy a contract went up. Which reduces how much you can effectively control with the same $$ amount. And as contracts are settled, what happens when new contracts are sought? Do you have to go offer a premium to purchase an existing contract, because that would drive price up. Or does Comex just issue more contracts at existing price, which effectively dilutes the pool and thus the overall value. If tomorrow, the contract pool was dropped from 200:1 (paper to physical) to 100:1, would the price of the next contract to exchange hands go up in a big way? I would think so.
No, you can't squeeze silver by buying contracts because more contracts get issued. The same sort of thing occurred with Gamestop and the 120% shorts and then looking at how many get rolled over without settlement.
I don't think GME can be won in this arrangement. Volatile yes. Attention grabber yes. But there seems no way to clear out a short position ever, not if the brokerage is calling the shots. So, maybe it is about the attention.
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Post by kenmb on Feb 2, 2021 9:49:15 GMT -6
I may be missing some points, but to me the system just does not have any basis in delivering what we have been told was a free market capitalist based system for price discovery. The endless amount of rules and changes that get implemented over the years as a new "crisis" tears through the financial system and therefore our lives seems to be a good example. On the silver front, I am thinking it is about attention now. Even if all the physical is bought, the holders and owners of the game will just say there is none to deliver right now. It does not matter what paper you hold if there is no enforcement. I think we are there now. It is more about showing the system. GME for stocks. Silver for commodities. The price for physical has once again decoupled from paper. That is not price discovery. And I don't buy into the idea that the media is driving the attention to buy silver. The last thing the banking system wants is the ordinary citizen talking about the value of silver and maybe putting 5% of their RRSP into owning silver rather than more stocks. There has been a 50 year period of telling people silver is worthless and backed by the issuance of so much paper to totally wipe real silver from the system and thus devalue it. So the paper attacks might get even worse this week to beat down the idea of silver as value. So maybe it is about attention again. Getting people talking. Because that definitely has occurred. This is apparently another post from Storm Rider. More cryptic stuff. A bunch of BS, yeah, could be. But let's consider the possibility before dismissing. THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE MYANMAR/LAOS/THAILAND/CHINA/++BROKEN++ THESE COUNTRIES W/U.S. EU ARE BREAKING SWITZERLAND/CAYMAN ISLANDS BANKS..[THESE BANKS WILL FALL AND BE SEIZED] .. DEEP STATE IN THESE COUNTRIES ARE IN PANIC +POTUS +22 NATIONS/MILITARY W POTUS + ENJOY THE SHOW NCSWIC With the news about the Vatican and unknown events there, and my wild speculation that Biden is not president but rather the US is taking back control. Suppose the banks are already broken. There is no need to launch a massive short squeeze. The massive money laundering these banks have done, market manipulation, law breaking to just pay fines, perhaps involved in US election rigging and thus exposure to asset seizure as per executive order. Suppose it already a done deal. And so the market rigging of commodities like silver will come to an end. Perhaps grains are seeing some of it already. It could be speculated that silver is being drawn attention to get people talking so a future introduction to currency backed by metals makes sense to a few people. And if silver is suppressed, the focus on physical is your chance to get some before the price is revamped under a new monetary system. Even if not for a monetary system, if the rigged game ends one should see a rise in value of some degree. Something I am thinking about now. I guess it depends on whether one sees the US election as a done deal and Biden is the POTUS, or if there may be something else going on. If there is something else going on, how much and where is the question.
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Post by kenmb on Feb 3, 2021 11:34:37 GMT -6
A couple articles I find worth reading. The first about Gamestop, if you follow the facts, and think for yourself, it destroys the whole narrative that a bunch of people with a few grand each are moving the market and costing hedge funds billions. And therefore it is not likely the same group is going to pivot to silver and do the same. www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/gme-stock-gamestop-investors-instantly-make-16-billion-gamestop-stock-squeeze/Saw this on New Ag Talk yesterday. This falls in line with my bias, and follows what an intelligent person should know from the Gamestop article above. The author for a few words speculates on the idea of an organized operation or military intelligence operation. As I said previously, I suspect there is some kind of guiding hand to this. Real or not, I am placing some bets. seekingalpha.com/article/4402468-shot-heard-round-world-fired-silver-bullet#commentsAs I mentioned in the Trump thread, I am going in on the conspiracy talk. Done sitting on the fence. If Biden is in charge then I think things are going full insanity and I don't know how to guess or speculate in an insane world. And even doing so successfully is not a good thing. Being able to function in an insane world is not necessarily a feather a want in my cap. So I am betting on the silver move. Hoping good things may happen to bring sanity back to the world. And I hope a sane monetary system would be part of that. Perhaps silver and gold will have no place there anyway, but I will bet it does. So if insanity does end, and silver is suppressed through paper contracts, then I hope to see a jump going forward. Not a short squeeze of $1000/oz, but perhaps may be worth $60 - $100 US sometime. So put some money to a TFSA, bought Sprott PSLV, will add more today or tomorrow, and will pickup some First Majestic Silver. Not so much because of the Reddit crowd, but the fact they have their own refinery. From ground to your house all within the same operation. No middle men, no refiners, no retailers. Maybe that is why it is heavily shorted, perhaps shorting is a weapon used to control businesses. If sanity returns to the world then a company like FM may see a move up. If not, the shorts will crush it or own it in some way. Win or loose, I am betting more on silver this week, entirely on hope. Hope some good things may be happening. Hope is never a good investment strategy. I know this, but doesn't matter if I think what the next 10 years may look like. FYI, China Lunar New Year comes up soon. The Shanghai Exchange closes for a week each year. This time Feb 11 - 17th. Usually a good time for precious metals to be taken down because of fewer buyers that week. Smart play is to wait till then. But I over paid for $15, $17, $22 and $27 silver so I can overpay this next 7 days once again. |
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Post by Oatking on Feb 3, 2021 12:16:26 GMT -6
27 dollars ounce is still cheap. Fun to dream of a 1000 ken. who knows but it would have to be physical silver . Friend got me into this at 8 dollars and i am enjoying the ride over the years. Storing it is a pain . It is also always a pain getting the 100 ounce bars. Normally not many people do this and the paper work is always a pain because Scotia bank employees are green with this transaction. Its worth the process. Never got into the paper fad, but its sounds interesting and profitable and a lot simpler. I am Just to old fashion and like physical items of value.
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Post by kenmb on Feb 4, 2021 9:15:52 GMT -6
I think everyone should have some metal at home. 1s and 0s on a computer screen representing your life's labors is not necessarily a good thing. It is the modern way, but not necessarily the right way. There is a lot of ethics and morality tied into the notion of currency created out of thin air vs money dug from the earth. It's two different worlds, one leads to corruption and one leads to a more just world. But I won't go into that here.
I was wrong about First Majestic owning its own refinery. They had Scottsdale mint do their most recent products. I suspect it works like farming or any resource, let the producers fight it out for lowest cost and then own the channels to collect, upgrade and distribute. That is where the "middle men" make their profit.
As a commodity, silver miners are in around that $15/us Oz cost of production. So $27 is not unrealistic for a fair market price. And, as mentioned before, when someone thinks about what an Oz of gold bought 70 years ago, and what it buys today then the asset value is not far off. The secret of metals is to look at what an Oz of metal could be traded for 70 years ago and see if it can be traded for a similar quantity today. Take an acre of land as an example, then crunch the numbers. That will tell you the truth of the big picture.
Once a guy grasps that metals are an asset, and currency is simply units of exchange to transact from one asset to another, then everything read over the last 30 years can be tossed out the window. This here is the ultimate truth. And then from there you can work out what the price per Oz should be, if it is "on sale", should you own more, etc. You will only know by taking price of an Oz of metal and comparing to the asset you are considering, figure out the ratio and then see how it fits with the historic ratio.
Wealthy people acquire assets. Poor people acquire dollars. This discussion on a farming board therefore holds less value, but many people don't truly understand. But even farmers look at the "balance sheet" as it's represented by $s. Don't do that. That is the Matrix in control of your thoughts and perceptions.
I don't have any 100 Oz bars, I think that is getting a little large to transact in. But do have lots of interesting coins. Not that I pay attention, or expect to capitalize, but it's interesting to go on SilverGoldBull and see coins I bought for the going rate per Oz, but a few years later are priced at 50% higher than their metal value just because they are unique. Don't know how a guy would know beforehand what is desirable, just a point that an Oz of silver is not always worth an Oz. Often times it is worth more.
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Post by Oatking on Feb 4, 2021 11:14:07 GMT -6
wealthy people acquire assets, and poor people acquire dollars. That is so true in every way possible. Actually I was surprised last spring i could not get my full order of 100 oz bars. Instead scotia in Winnipeg called Toronto office gave me 10 oz bars instead. Very bulky order. Is there bars larger than 100oz? Would love to get my hands on 1000 oz bars. Funny side note, Scotia put the silver bars in white cloth bags. It reminded me of the old cartoons on bugs bunny show! he he. or how they carried gold in the spaghetti westerns like fist full of dollars.
The most appealing aspect of physical investments especially land , gold or silver is you can put daily fluctuations in price out out of mind. Used to work with a guy who every day continually looked at his petty stocks. He is not much further a head now than back than. He always denounced land investments or silver because of no dividends.
It bugs me that when you go to buy physical silver especially at scotia they act like you are crazy to buy that product. I remember a manager said why dont you let us invest some of that money. Yeah right i thought.
Any body know of a better way to get physical gold or silver from an accredit supplier.?
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Post by kenmb on Feb 4, 2021 18:13:01 GMT -6
Rather than 1000oz silver, buy some 100 Oz gold, that will solve your bulk problem  I think 1000 Oz exist, too rich for me to look into it. Futures contract settlements work in 400 or 1000 Oz lots but don't know if they get retailed as such. The Wall Street Bets news with Gamestop manipulation is making the circle, now landing in Congress and I see Janet Yellen is "concerned". A completely insane world where people might actually think an internet forum is the villains and the naked shorts are the victims. As mentioned, I can't think or function in an insane world so I think there must be an agenda to draw attention to this reality and get people talking. If the take away and end result from the WSB-GME thing is hedge funds were victimized and the small investors talking on a forum are to be fined, shut down, and legislated against - well, fuk it - we are indeed done for. I am going to act like the world is sane, the talk of silver was for a reason also, and there may be a play coming on it. Worst case is I throw some money at some silver miners and pslv and in 3 months I take it back because nothing happened. Maybe silver drops 10% over that time, but endless money printing says it shouldn't. |
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Post by kenmb on Feb 4, 2021 18:30:40 GMT -6
Big picture stuff, I mused about this last year or more ago:
I will take a random example, will apply elsewhere though.
Arab country has finite resource of oil and not much more. They produce and sell it. The $US is always being devalued by printing (inflation) and the Arabs can't control this. So the cash they take one year and store looses its value by next year. Initially it was oil for gold. Read the most sensible article that the oil crisis in 1970 was when Arabs knew the gig was up with the tie being broken between $us and gold so they stopped selling oil. Treasuries are a solution as they pay interest to offset the devaluation of the dollar.
This all makes sense. Do you exchange your limited resources for fiat printed out of thin air. Only an idiot would. Dollars were accepted for a while but there has to be a lot of back room deals to accept them, and guarantees. Gold still rules in exchange of resources. We just don't hear about it, or think about it.
Fast forward to today. Treasuries are what, 3%? Is anyone selling oil for American government backed paper? Keep in mind especially that the printing presses are full tilt. So not only is 3% too low, it is plain insulting to offer $us for a resource.
There are probably some back room deals going on to get resources paid for in government paper or $us, but those will definitely have a finite shelf life. And I would imagine if I was selling my resources, I had some concrete answer as to how long the deal stands for.
Naturally I could be demanding payment in gold. Suppose we used to trade resources for $us and only some deals in gold. But with the $us being totally destroyed now, the amount of trade in gold has gone up 10x. Point being, that will come to an end then too if all the gold moves from one side of the table to another. Keep in mind the importance of balanced trade when using gold as a medium of exchange.
So, big picture says that something will change soon. It can go on for a while but running printing presses to oblivion will have an end. Otherwise you would have to assume the people selling their natural resources for fiat are idiots. The peasants maybe idiots for dealing in $s, but the real wealthy know the truth. And the truth says something will have to change soon. 10 more years of this or negative interest rates won't cut it. Unless the back room deals are really intriguing.
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