|
Bitcoins
Aug 23, 2023 19:57:22 GMT -6
via mobile
Post by Oatking on Aug 23, 2023 19:57:22 GMT -6
Interesting move in silver this week. Up about 10%. Also notable that metals were on a downward trend for a while for unknown reasons. The reasons always are unknown, especially considering that "inflation" has drastically driven up the cost of all raw and manufactured goods except precious metals haven't followed the same pace over recent years. This week is the week the BRICS are again meeting to discuss how they continue taking away dominance of the $us and its control organization. As usual, who knows if any of that is really happening. It would be nice if there was a group doing such a thing because it wouldn't be that hard. The group just needs enough military power to keep the US/Nato/UN coming in and wiping out anyone who dares to attempt such a thing. But maybe it is happening. The Ukraine war would seem to indicate the western regime doesn't have what it takes to keep the $us scheme going. I still think grains will go higher, I am not waiting for some new record high, but $11 wheat in October would be fine. And my gut says if metals go higher then grains will too. If metals drop much more I suspect grains to hold or go down. My thinking is if we beleive the BRICS talk then metals will be in demand. And if they use commodity based trade/currency then grains are also in demand and not subject as much to the crap called futures trading. Couple this with the idea people are likely to pursue unloading $us and we start seeing increased prices - which is actually currency devaluation being the driver. Once again, the tricky part is figuring out what is reality and what kind of fake crap can be pulled off to hide reality. And the big, big asterisk in all this is the prices we see right now for precious metals and grains is all based on futures trading done in $us. In the real world this wouldn't exist so if things are really happening like a commodity based currency then both futures trading and the $us become irrelevant so how do we assess things. Since we have been programmed to assess everything based on $$ and not value. Too big of change too soon. Hard to know what will happen with silver ! History is a good indication of the possibilities !!! 1965: Silver was trading at a dollar an ounce. 1980: Its value peaked at over $50 dollars an ounce. 1992: Silver traded for as low as $3 dollars. 2011: It traded at almost $49 dollars.
|
|
|
Post by kenmb on Aug 24, 2023 6:40:24 GMT -6
I hadn't looked at the prices for over a week. I was surprised last night to see silver up like that. Usually i see mention of big moves like that.
Pretty sure central banks will hike interest rates again. Why. Because. There is no logical reason. They clearly didn't see inflation for 13 years when anyone looking at real estate listings had it slapping them in the face, so they central banks clearly won't see deflation either. Because that is not what they do. They don't really do things that way.
Remember all the "experts" and forum posts saying interest rates will never go higher, or there have been 4 rste hikes and that is the end. I saw mention of 14 hikes so far. Oddly enough, none of those talking heads on the tv are pontificating on rate hikes being done.
As I mentioned before, don't be dumb enough to beleive central banks are running things for your best outcome and that media is giving you any real insight.
Precious metals remain and insurance policy. I don't call them an investment. I just feel better having some PMs. I haven't bought any for a while but last month would have been a good time, and I think this month is too. And pretty much any other month for that matter is a good time to own some.
Bitcoin, well it's a Ponzi scheme. Depends when you get in or out. It's not an investment and it is not insurance.
|
|
|
Post by kenmb on Aug 24, 2023 8:48:39 GMT -6
I don't talk with banks very much and still pursuing the idea of a Claas combine over the next little bit. Yesterday I see rate is 6.75% through FCC on 5 year with 5 or 10% down depending if private purchase or through dealer. So I checked with Conexus Credit Union since I recently joined now that our RBC pulled out of town and was given a number of prime (7.2%) plus 1 to 3% depending how I do on my paper work fill out to make the lender comfortable they can create money out of thin air and give it to me.
That is a lot of disposable income coming out of the economy to service debt. If you wanted to know what causes deflation, guess what it is.
|
|
|
Post by Oatking on Sept 23, 2023 9:02:19 GMT -6
interesting article on a repeat of the 2007 2008 housing collapse.
is it possible farm land could see this demise.
he also shows an example of how people can manipulate the system with bit coin.
interesting watch.
|
|
|
Post by kenmb on Sept 24, 2023 10:34:52 GMT -6
Price of debt runs the economy, especially in a debt based system we have. Therefore those who set the price of debt are those who run the economy. And therefore its not your government.
One of the Federal Reserves top mandates set when it was created was to ensure a stable economy. How are they doing? I suppose it does not matter since no one in US government who grants the Fed their mandate to continue actually asks this question. It's like having a financial planner to grow your wealth but not actually look to see if they are growing your wealth - ever.
So housing is becoming less affordable because of interest rates. Apparently no one could see that coming, or more importantly, understand this while cutting rates. And what a time for government policy to change regarding Airbnb.
But the good news is there is no more farmland being made so it will always have demand outstrip supply. Ok, so what if there was 200M acres of farmland in Canada in 2003 and land was no sale here and renting for taxes, the point being is there is no more being made so it will never go down because supply is zero. A guy may think the supply is actually 200M at any given minute and it actually just depends on sellers vs buyers but that goes against the idea of no more farmland being made.
So you will have to decide for yourself if farmland will ever be effected.
My out of the box thinking says if a guy can get 6% return on a bond then that may catch a lot of attention. However if supply of farmland is zero because no more is being made then farmland is guaranteed to go higher. And interest rates won't matter because lots of farmers flush with old money will buy land if no one else sees the attraction.
Interesting George identified FTT as a Ponzi scheme, same with all crypto. Yet government and the lending institutions who want guarantee security don't see it that way. How does that happen. A pretty good example of debt to equity ratio at work. Debt is fixed, equity is an imaginary number subject to change at any time.
|
|
|
Post by kenmb on Sept 25, 2023 7:48:23 GMT -6
George only talked of the supply side in that video, we also factor in the demand side.
As I have mentioned before, there is an entire generation now beginning to learn about debt cost. For 15 years it was a non-issue, the automatic answer to any purchase was "yes, I can afford it". This applies to houses, farmland, equipment and mattresses too. If you don't have the savings, it doesn't matter, just buy it with debt.
Think about being 35 years old and just starting to understand how being heavily leveraged starts to look when a loan is now 7.5% and you are pissing away a few grand a month on interest. Ok, it's a lot more than a few grand for a lot of people, but for myself, when I see $1000 a month pissed away on interest for crop inputs I tend to consider that if I can eliminate that then I am well on my way to living a comfortable life. But I don't need to clear $100,000 a year to pay for the camper, cabin, 4 family vacations, $100,000 half tons, etc so $1000 a month is a decent chunk of free cash flow for me.
Let's also consider than I am a fairly average schmuck. And that there are a whole bunch of other people thinking saving $1000 a month is rather significant. How does that effect the supply > demand ratio George focuses on?
This applies to all big purchases. Not just houses. If people start thinking their house is unaffordable you are adding to the supply if they choose to make a change. However the average schmuck as a buyer is in the same position of the average schmuck who is the seller. They both are seeing that extra $1000 a month pissed away as perhaps something not of benefit to their longterm plans. Does you move into a 2000 sq ft home or stay in your dated 1200 sq foot home and think that maybe you will take the savings and go out for some nice suppers or take a few trips instead.
|
|