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Bitcoins
Dec 20, 2022 10:11:53 GMT -6
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Post by shmiffy on Dec 20, 2022 10:11:53 GMT -6
Shrinking money supply and increased cost of money will drag a lot down.
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Post by kenmb on Dec 20, 2022 11:22:35 GMT -6
In theory, that's the way it would work shmiffy.
If we think of capital as in capitalism The people without it can't afford to borrow as much so less currency chasing the same asset The people with capital will always seek a return on capital
This is a very different reality than the last 10 years. Exact opposite actually. Debt is now expensive and people with capital won't chase assets that don't generate a return of capital.
I don't think the Fed is lowering interest rates anytime soon. Based on my tin foil hat thinking I would say we are going to see the cost of debt being about where it should be. Around 7% loan is realistic based on what a lender would expect for return of his capital that he lent out. I am not thinking 14% or return of 1982, simply thinking I don't expect the central banks to control the economy with interest rates that can't possibly exist unless by manipulating everything. News from yesterday is Bank of Japan raising interest rates.
As a side note, I see Sam Bankman Fried "news" articles saying he is considering being extradited from the Bahamas. Doesn't like the jail conditions so may not oppose extradition. Funny thing is, I have never recalled a case where a criminal gets to decide if they stay where they are when another country is looking to take a criminal home for prosecution. I suppose our "news" has a brand new understanding of how this all works. Maybe sorting out the BS is for us to do and not rely on some other entity to tell us what is total crap.
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Post by SWMan on Dec 20, 2022 21:30:17 GMT -6
Who is shrinking the money supply? Printing presses have been running overtime for years!
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Post by kenmb on Dec 21, 2022 8:40:01 GMT -6
Higher interest rates means less debt being taken on and so shrinking money supply.
Remember our present world is money = debt and that therefore = wealth. Or expressed differently using some algebra:
Debt = wealth
And that is also said to equal a booming and strong economy because debt expansion = strong economy
These are all the things we are told. The economy has been fantastic for last 12 years. Debt expansion has created an extremely good economy.
We just need to ask a simple question - really? Is debt actually wealth and therefore how we built a good and healthy economy.
Or better yet, if we stop adding debt does the economy stay strong and healthy (for that we have to ask if the economy was strong and healthy to begin with if built on debt).
I see SBF has signed some papers to agree to be extradited. Sure hope he got it right. Wonder if the Bahamas was more likely to not prosecute for much or give him a slap on the wrist and let him go vs the US who is likely to throw the full legal system and penalties at him. I don't know, I think SBF was better off not letting himself be extradited and instead stay where he is at and maybe grease some wheels to get a dog and pony show of a trial.
Maybe he could have done better and found a country to extradite him that doesn't even pursue fraud charges. That would be sweet. I suspect his legal counsel screwed up. Or possibly someone facing criminal charges actually has no say in the extradition process what's so ever. Though the news says that's not the case so what am I to take as fact.
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Post by SWMan on Dec 21, 2022 14:00:13 GMT -6
I agree on debt being used to expand the economy and money supply, but the government has been simply handing money out for years with little to no strings attached. I suppose they could end that and really pull the rug out from under everyone pretty quick!
Imagine interest rates going up to even historical averages, smart money moves to sidelines while asset prices plummet and banks all of a sudden want your lending ratios to be adjusted to a safer zone. This puts more land on the market which pushes prices lower. How many farmers can handle their asset values dropped to 50% of current values while interest rates hang around 10%? This is a very real risk and something guys should be planning for at some point.
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Bitcoins
Dec 22, 2022 11:27:59 GMT -6
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Post by shmiffy on Dec 22, 2022 11:27:59 GMT -6
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Post by Oatking on Dec 22, 2022 11:41:51 GMT -6
Has anyone used bitcoin to buy cars or farm equipment. Does richie bros take bitcoin? The collapse in bitcoin companies would make it too expensive perhaps if a person has them on account. I have not followed that market .
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Bitcoins
Dec 22, 2022 23:21:25 GMT -6
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Post by kevlar on Dec 22, 2022 23:21:25 GMT -6
Will SBF live long enough for his trial or will he shoot himself in the back of the head two or three times before hand?
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Post by kenmb on Dec 23, 2022 9:07:03 GMT -6
His girlfriend already pleaded guilty to fraud so SBF isn't in good shape for putting up a defense. Of course our legal system (not justice system) can always find a way to make sure he is free. But it is an interesting point to note that the crypto sphere actually has one major player being taken down because of the fraud the sector is. A good part of the fraud conviction centers around the fact FTX issued their own token and assigned a value to it to then go and use their token as if it's real asset for investing. Apparently the entire financial regulation system missed the point that this just isn't quite right and someone finally figured that perhaps fraud is taking place. So we wait to see if elsewhere in crypto sphere such things get noticed by regulators.
Yes, the government will try to keep expanding the money supply. It's the reason why it is "conspiracy talk" to suggest the government is in bed with the banks but one is the boss. And it's not the government.
Was talking about land the other night with another who was saying land will keep going up because now it is big investors buying from other countries. My point to that is if it really is investors, are you sure they will be buying farmland any longer? And investor is looking for return on capital, not buying things because they like the idea. If you can get 7% return right this moment on bonds, t-bills that is a guaranteed return, would you still buy land. Couple that with the idea if you will still buy land but many other won't and so land values stop increasing or even drop, would investors start leaving the land investor sector completely.
Sure, if grain prices and rent revenues can support the values then all is good. However if investors are in and out of sectors based on return on investment, how long do they hold land. Time will tell. Apparently things are different then the 1980s but I actually don't see where. I think it is because everyone has a whole bunch of cash laying around yet debt has been expanded massively. Perhaps getting back to the idea debt=wealth so land won't down because there is so much wealth around.
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Bitcoins
Dec 23, 2022 10:17:11 GMT -6
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Post by shmiffy on Dec 23, 2022 10:17:11 GMT -6
Andjelic has been buying land around eston at the same price or alittle higher than Hutterites. New Hutterite colony is panicking alittle because they had a couple shit years and couldn’t buy all that they wanted now andjelic is coming in with cash at time of purchase.
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Post by northernfarmer on Dec 29, 2022 20:48:11 GMT -6
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tommo780
Junior Member
Posts: 61 Likes: 61
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Post by tommo780 on Mar 19, 2023 21:59:49 GMT -6
Had someone share this. I'm still not entirely sold on Bitcoin as I still can't figure whether I can transact in total privacy the same as I can with cash or metals but still thought it was a good take non the less.
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Post by Oatking on Mar 20, 2023 6:04:58 GMT -6
BTC BITCOIN up 27% in one week? what gives?
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Bitcoins
Mar 20, 2023 6:32:34 GMT -6
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Post by cptusa on Mar 20, 2023 6:32:34 GMT -6
BTC BITCOIN up 27% in one week? what gives? Banks dropping like flies.
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Post by kenmb on Aug 23, 2023 18:49:15 GMT -6
Interesting move in silver this week. Up about 10%. Also notable that metals were on a downward trend for a while for unknown reasons. The reasons always are unknown, especially considering that "inflation" has drastically driven up the cost of all raw and manufactured goods except precious metals haven't followed the same pace over recent years.
This week is the week the BRICS are again meeting to discuss how they continue taking away dominance of the $us and its control organization.
As usual, who knows if any of that is really happening. It would be nice if there was a group doing such a thing because it wouldn't be that hard. The group just needs enough military power to keep the US/Nato/UN coming in and wiping out anyone who dares to attempt such a thing. But maybe it is happening. The Ukraine war would seem to indicate the western regime doesn't have what it takes to keep the $us scheme going.
I still think grains will go higher, I am not waiting for some new record high, but $11 wheat in October would be fine. And my gut says if metals go higher then grains will too. If metals drop much more I suspect grains to hold or go down. My thinking is if we beleive the BRICS talk then metals will be in demand. And if they use commodity based trade/currency then grains are also in demand and not subject as much to the crap called futures trading. Couple this with the idea people are likely to pursue unloading $us and we start seeing increased prices - which is actually currency devaluation being the driver.
Once again, the tricky part is figuring out what is reality and what kind of fake crap can be pulled off to hide reality.
And the big, big asterisk in all this is the prices we see right now for precious metals and grains is all based on futures trading done in $us. In the real world this wouldn't exist so if things are really happening like a commodity based currency then both futures trading and the $us become irrelevant so how do we assess things. Since we have been programmed to assess everything based on $$ and not value. Too big of change too soon.
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