Post by kenmb on Oct 16, 2022 8:59:30 GMT -6
If we actually thought about what cheap interest rates did to the economy we could have acted differently. Problem is, around 2014 I was already posting that something isn't right with these ultra low rates and so at that time I had already been saying they should go up anytime. So how does one run their lives with the assumption the people in charge are out to destroy your life. That is what cheap interest rates have done. And the people setting ultra low interest rates also own the photocopier which allows them to copy an infinite amount of currency to use as they see fit to make things work in their own little world. We aren't allowed to use that same photocopier.
The damage has been done. Print, print, print is the solution and has been for many years. So when printing money is the only answer to keeping your life in order, then at some point even the biggest fans of the present economy should start thinking this isn't right.
I remember dad saying when he bought land and machinery in 1980 the banker said inflation will keep things high. Land will never go down and wheat will never go below $5.50bu. For some reason I remember the number of $5.50 but need to fact check that myself. Point being is we are in very similar times. Sure it could be different this time. But we should most definitely acknowledge that grain prices can go down. That was the point of my post in the marketing thread a few days ago. Sure, food price should stay elevated but that is not the world we live in. Our world is determined by paper futures contracts and not the idea people actually want food. So our news can create all sorts of reasons why grain prices go down over winter. They certainly did in past history with ultra high inflation.
So we get set up for something that has already happened before. So no one can say it won't happen because it has already happened. You go from a period of high asset prices and strong grain prices to a period of significantly falling asset prices and grain prices.
Will it happen again? I don't know. But one reason a guy now can be getting by with somewhat higher interest rates is because grain prices are very strong. And the thinking is all the things going on around us mean grain prices will stay strong. Maybe. I won't bet on anything. So to Oatking point in the other thread, making some grain sales for 2023 isn't a bad idea. I have rethought the idea grain prices will stay high. Nothing is certain. I personally haven't got the will to make commitments to someone else that far out so I don't want to owe someone anything right now. It's a personal things. Business wise says locking in some sales for 2023 is sensible.
The damage has been done. Print, print, print is the solution and has been for many years. So when printing money is the only answer to keeping your life in order, then at some point even the biggest fans of the present economy should start thinking this isn't right.
I remember dad saying when he bought land and machinery in 1980 the banker said inflation will keep things high. Land will never go down and wheat will never go below $5.50bu. For some reason I remember the number of $5.50 but need to fact check that myself. Point being is we are in very similar times. Sure it could be different this time. But we should most definitely acknowledge that grain prices can go down. That was the point of my post in the marketing thread a few days ago. Sure, food price should stay elevated but that is not the world we live in. Our world is determined by paper futures contracts and not the idea people actually want food. So our news can create all sorts of reasons why grain prices go down over winter. They certainly did in past history with ultra high inflation.
So we get set up for something that has already happened before. So no one can say it won't happen because it has already happened. You go from a period of high asset prices and strong grain prices to a period of significantly falling asset prices and grain prices.
Will it happen again? I don't know. But one reason a guy now can be getting by with somewhat higher interest rates is because grain prices are very strong. And the thinking is all the things going on around us mean grain prices will stay strong. Maybe. I won't bet on anything. So to Oatking point in the other thread, making some grain sales for 2023 isn't a bad idea. I have rethought the idea grain prices will stay high. Nothing is certain. I personally haven't got the will to make commitments to someone else that far out so I don't want to owe someone anything right now. It's a personal things. Business wise says locking in some sales for 2023 is sensible.