Outlook for grain prices?

Kevlar unless you are confident that land prices are going to continue to inflate so the current purchase price eventually makes sense and you can secure manageable interest rates in the meantime, then I would sit tight for now. There is large risk involved with the dollars flying around in agriculture right now, and I really don't think every farmer has a handle on their risk tolerance. Just because FCC or the bank will lend you money, doesn't mean you should borrow it. Buying land has almost a generational pattern to it, right now we are likely in the phase similar to the late 70's/early 80's. I don't think we will see interest go that high, but we don't need to and there will be major problems with farm debt.

Honestly with the current state of affairs in our banana republic of Canada why would you stick your neck out to do business? Think the tax or regulatory climate will get any better in the decade(s) ahead??? I'd clean up and improve what you have, focus on maximizing returns and efficiencies on what you do already, pay off debt and wait for the next opportunity that makes sense.

Back on the subject of grain prices: Does anyone know of an advisory service that is still mostly unsold on grains? It seems that if they knew what they were doing and given the very large market move going on, someone should have sensed this ahead of time. 

I think most of the grain advisors are more in bed with the grain buyers than the farmers.

Curl with a guy from my local Pioneer, says they have never had such quick rail movement of grain as this crop year. No surprise really, if the people in charge want to move something, it will move. Things like union strikes or port loading delays won't take place. Also got a call from a feed barley buyer who I sold to last year that is looking for more. Interesting when someone is calling me. Though $4.85 picked up didn't strike me as someone really committed to securing more barley.

As for the farm land, just be careful of what we assume. I would agree that crashing currency values/inflation is sound reasoning but54 there are other things at work. If we beleive the BS that the debt must be paid back that our government has saddled us with then property owners are an easy target, as are capital gains exemptions, estate taxes, land transfer taxes. Basically any way you think you will turn a profit 20 years from now via asset inflation can be taken from you in other wealth transfer schemes. We also need a buyer in order to capture that inflated asset price. We talked before that all this high priced land and equipment is not being paid by farmers making a profit - it is paid by debt. Joe sells land for $500,000 and made a huge profit in his mind, yet Fred the buyer took on $500,000 of debt and will expand his debt more to add resources to farm it. Joe will pay taxes on his profit, sell assets, etc. But in all likelihood the transaction leads to an overall expansion of debt in the big picture. So inflation can drive land higher in price but if debt expansion ends because potential buyers have taken all they can stomach, then the potential buyers become few. So just be careful of assumptions. A lot has happened in the last 15 years and it is all tied to debt expansion, in order for all things to continue based on what ever logic is used, then this must continue also.

$4.85 is pretty decent though there were contracts in spring available for $5 a couple years ago. I was cleaning out my heated barley at a high of $4.50 picked up this summer. Local pioneer is up to $5.27 delivered in July for feed. They are also offering $9.21 on yellow peas for April May delivery which is price levels I have never seen. Interesting enough, India still has those pea tariffs on.

I am not holding my breath on India announcing a tarrifs removal which will drive peas noticeably higher. If India wants peas they are already getting them through various channels. I think a lot of peas have already moved this year, and even though they may not have been explicitly sent to China or India, they eventually find where they need to go. Tarrifs or not.

Just had some canola trigger at 13$ for December, wonder how much higher is gonna move up in new year on til spring

Where is the G3 that has$5.50?